Huck the System

The End

2008-10-28T11:41:00.004-04:00

Should have posted this several months ago... I have no plans to continue this blog, unless Mike Huckabee runs for President again in the future. I want to thank everyone who has visited, read, and commented, even the cranks. I especially want to thank my brother - The Calvinator - for being a co-writer with me. We had a good run, better than almost everyone expected.

We encourage everyone to go vote on or before next Tuesday. I am personally recommending John McCain (i assume Calvinator is too, but i haven't asked him) for President.

But let us also remember that our salvation - neither the profound sort nor the earth-bound - does not come from our politics. Let us not afford too much credit or blame to our governments. While they are indeed important, and we should choose our leaders wisely, they cannot transform hearts. They cannot be a substitute for hard work, for helping your neighbor, or for making the world a better place. That is our job, each of us.

We do also have a continued political job. We cannot sit back and let the moneyed class run roughshod over our country. The influence of money is pernicious in Washington, on Capitol Hill, in the race for the White House, in this bailout ridiculousness. And it won't get any better if the people don't stand up and say ENOUGH! Enough of deficit spending! Enough of wasteful pork! Enough of lobbyist driven vote trading! Enough of secret government! Enough of increasingly complex laws designed to thwart citizen activism!

We tried here to Huck the System. Let us continue to Buck the System.

Farewell...

(Still) Voting for Mike

2008-05-10T09:14:00.004-04:00

The North Carolina Primary finally arrived this week. All the press around here, of course, was about the Democratic race between Clinton and Obama (and a little about our governor race). That ongoing battle drove strong turnout. Where i live, however, i guess it's mostly GOP territory, because there was hardly anyone at the polls when i was there before work.

Mike Huckabee was still on the NC ballot, despite having conceded to McCain. And while i join Governor Huckabee in now supporting Senator McCain, i wasn't going to forego this opportunity to vote for Mike. I proudly, if vainly, pencil-filled the little scantron bubble for Mike Huckabee for President. One last act this season to offer my support for this fine candidate.

I was one of about 63,000 folks to do so. Mike pulled 12%, ahead of Ron Paul's 7%. He picked up 8 delegates. Speaking of delegates, i wonder how the pick them. I signed up several months ago at the MH site to be a delegate, but never heard anything back.

Now, it's all about John McCain and ensuring his election over the profoundly liberal Obama. I doubt i will be blogging much about it, though, unless Huckabee is on the ticket.

Looking Forward: Huckabee

2008-03-13T19:21:00.003-04:00

We had a great run, but Governor Huckabee came up short this time around. Hearty congratulations to Senator McCain on his all-but-sealed nomination.

But what about our guy Huckabee? There's been plenty written about what he should or might do next, mostly from the same prognosticators who have been spectacularly wrong throughout this season. Maybe i'm in that same boat, the SS Clueless, but here are my thoughts. It depends on whether Governor Huckabee would like to be POTUS at some point in the future. As early as 2012 or beyond.

If he wants to be president, Governor Huckabee should continue burnishing his foreign policy credentials and his federal economic skills. Accepting the VP slot with McCain would be the ideal spot (i don't buy the argument from some ardent Huckabee supporters to stay away from the McCain ticket, on the presumption that he is a sure loser - he's not). Accepting a cabinet position, unless it's the obviously unlikely Secretary of State position, would not be a good move. Being the Secretary of Health & Human Services, for example, is not a stepping-stone to the Oval Office, and would only serve to keep the Governor pigeon-holed.

Here's an off-the-wall suggestion. Take a high-level, visible position at a conservative think-tank like the Heritage Foundation or the American Enterprise Institute. Perhaps Newt Gingrich's American Solutions outfit. And not to focus solely or even primarily on traditional religious-right causes and issues. But to apply the principles of conservative governing to all the issues dear to the Governor. Fair taxation, whole-brained education, health, valuing of life, stewardship of the earth, and so forth. This would solidify his conservative credentials, especially in the eyes of skeptics, and would also serve to allay the unfounded fears that Huckabee was nothing more than Pat Robertson redux.

If the presidential aspirations are over, there are many more options. Huckabee could have a stellar career as a talk-show host, either on radio or tv. It would be delicious irony if he could unseat some of the goobers that railed against him on a daily basis, with no basis.

Or, even better imo, Huckabee could start a think-tank (can you tell that i like think-tanks?) with a special focus on the broadening evangelical environment. It wouldn't have to be much different than my suggestion above, with a key difference that this enterprise could be overtly "religious" in orientation. Perhaps join forces with Chuck Colson's Wilberforce Forum.

Whatever he does, i will remain a supporter.

54-46

2008-03-01T07:12:00.001-05:00

Sorry for the absence lately. I've been working intently the last two weeks on a family genealogy project. Quite fascinating stuff.

Just a quick note then. Most observers of the GOP race have noted that John McCain has done very well this primary season in the so-called Blue States, those states that tend to go Democratic in the general elections. So i took a deeper look at that.

First, i made a prediction for each state, as to whether it would be blue or red this year. I based that primarily on what that state has done in the past 5 presidential elections (limited to 5 because that information was readily available at Yahoo's election dashboard.

Then, i compared the vote totals in each primary state thus far, McCain vs. Huckabee. Granted, most of those contests were not essentially head-to-head, and so the votes are clouded by votes for Thompson, Romney, et al. I then extrapolated those vote percentages to a force-fit total of 100% for the two candidates. For example, if McCain got 30% in state X, while Huckabee got 20%, then i adjusted that to 60-40 in favor of McCain.

The final step was to weight those respective state voting %s by the electoral votes assigned to each state. We couldn't take the raw votes because some states had caucuses, which have a much lower # of votes compared to regular primaries.

Result? In blue-states, McCain has had a 3-1 advantage over Huckabee. Domination. But domination in states where it won't matter. Those states are going to ultimately vote for Obama or Clinton over McCain. In red-states, McCain's lead narrows dramatically to only 54-46. Compare that to the results of the last 8 Democratic contests, where Obama has crushed Clinton 65-35 on average.

So what does this mean? I suppose if one believed that John McCain could turn historically blue states red, then this analysis would be encouraging for the GOP. If we were on a history arc where the trend was towards the GOP, rather than away from it, nominating a moderate Republican who could transform states into new electoral votes might be a good strategy. But we're on the opposite arc right now. Can the GOP even hold its base states this year with John McCain? I would still bet yes, but i'd be nervous if i were Mike Duncan.

I do still firmly believe that Governor Huckabee would easily hold the base-states, and with a half-year in the public spotlight, with the opportunity to hold debates, with the extra time for Obamamania to lose its luster, he could also hold the line just enough for a GOP victory in November. It doesn't look like we'll ever get the chance to prove that yea or nay.

Cinderella Man 2.0

2008-02-14T09:49:00.002-05:00

Here's a cool video compiling scenes from this wild ride so far. A good example of how the media is clueless when it comes to political predictions. And an inspiring look at Governor Huckabee's ups and downs and ups.

Of Miracles and Math

2008-02-14T08:01:00.002-05:00

Governor Huckabee quipped on Meet the Press last Sunday that he didn't major in math, but in miracles. He was, of course, talking about his delegate prospects. I quipped, before last Saturday's wins in Kansas and Louisiana, that Mike had "about as much of a chance as David had against Goliath." I almost majored in math, but i believe in miracles, too. The boy-with-slingshot miracles, though, not the next-time-i-play-basketball-this-5foot-10inch-white-guy-will-be-able-to-dunk kind of miracles. So which type of miracle does Governor Huckabee need, now that he lost all 3 Potomac primaries this week?

As many have already pointed out, the media's proclamation that Huckabee has no mathematical chance is pure bunk. CNN, which has been quite a solid source this election season, even played around with their fancy computer screens, and said that even if Huckabee wins the remaining primaries, that John McCain will still get enough delegates to clinch. I could only surmise that they failed to actually read the rules about how delegates are awarded in the remaining states. I did (at green papers). Heck, they only had to look at a state like Georgia, where Governor Huckabee got only 34% of the primary vote, enough to lead the way but only a few points ahead of McCain's 32% and Romney's 30%. A squeaker win, but one that delivered 45 delegates to Huckabee to only 3 to McCain. So, a 2 point victory led to garnering over 90% of the delegates. Other states – not all, but some – work in a similar fashion. That's just sloppy journalism to not consider all this.

So this is an exercise worth looking into, particularly for the true believers. What do i find?

Likely Case

In this scenario, i went through each remaining state and allocated delegates based on each state's rule and my reasonable expectations for primary voting outcomes. This was mostly based on the type of results we've seen from Super Tuesday forward. McCain does well in so-called blue states, and Huckabee does well in so-called red states. The result is not miracle-friendly. McCain gets enough delegates for an outright majority, even before awarding any super-delegates or counting the delegates from US territories. McCain just basically needs to hold serve and cruise on to the nomination. This is, by far, the likely outcome. Neither i, nor the Huckabee campaign, have any delusions otherwise.

Best Case

In this scenario, we reallocated future delegates assuming that Governor Huckabee starts to dominate in most states. Two of the next primaries (WI and OH), for example, are winner-take-all by a combination of congressional district and statewide votes. If Huckabee can beat McCain in each district, even if by a fraction, then he could take all 128 delegates from these two states. Let's look at all the states…

Wisconsin – WTA by congressional district (CD) and statewide – 40 delegates – all to Huckabee
Ohio – WTA by CD and statewide – 88 delegates – all to Huckabee
Rhode Island – proportional – 20 – McCain wins 45-40
Texas – funky mix by CD and statewide – 140 – Huckabee needs to win 50%+ statewide and in most CDs, delivering 123 of the 140 delegates
Vermont – WTA – 17 – all to McCain
Mississippi – WTA by CD and statewide, if get at least 50% - 39 – another state where we need at least 50% of the vote
Pennsylvania – very strange rules, essentially rendering delegates unpledged – 74 – if get these other groundswells, could take 2/3 here
Indiana – another odd mix of CD and convention – 57 – win outright with 50%+ and get 50 of the delegates (just an estimate)
North Carolina – proportion – 69 – presume MH gets 60% of the vote here and the rest of the proportional states
Nebraska – primary vote is advisory only, delegates picked at convention – 33 – need 2/3 of these
Hawaii – convention – 20 – only get 6 in this McCain state
Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho, New Mexico, South Dakota – all proportional – total of 166 – as stated above, assume MH gets 60% of the vote

Best Case Outcome

This scenario leaves John McCain with just under 1000 delegates, and Mike Huckabee with just over 800 delegates, enough to broker the convention. But even at that point, we'd still need something close to a miracle. He'd need to secure the delegates from all the other candidates other than McCain. He'd need to ensure that the super delegates don't just groundswell over to McCain too early. It's hard for me to imagine what sort of deal that Huckabee could make with Romney to get his delegates once they are unbound. Paul's delegates are likely to be intransigent.

It's hard to see the light at the end of this tunnel, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying. I'll expound on that in a future post.

Mike at CPAC

2008-02-09T23:39:00.001-05:00

Video clip of Governor Huckabee's great speech at CPAC this morning...

You can find the rest of it at youtube, if you just click again on the video. Heck, i'll add the links...

Part 2
Part 3
Part 4

Delegate Math

2008-02-08T14:08:00.000-05:00

Does Governor Huckabee really have to get 82% of the remaining Delegates (as Karl Rove claimed on FoxNews' Hannity & Colmes) to stop Senator McCain from being the Republican Nominee?

The answer: No, he doesn't have to. He only has to get about 60%, and yes, that is very possible.

I see so many different delegate counts that I'm not sure who knows, but I'll use the Real Clear Politics numbers.

Right now:

McCain 724

Total Delegates awarded so far: 1247 (Actually, I know this number is wrong because RCP is showing delegates for states that had a caucus or primary but that award delegates at some later stage. I think all of them are in Romney's column, though)

Delegates remaining to be awarded: 1133

Delegates McCain needs to be the nominee: 467 (1191-724)

Percentage McCain must receive to be the nominee: 41.22%

Percentage Huckabee must receive to take this to the Convention: 58.78%

If Huckabee gets about 82% of remaining Delegates, he wins outright going into the Convention. I don't expect that to happen, but blocking McCain is in the realm of possibility.

Quick Postgame Report

2008-02-06T20:09:00.001-05:00

Not much to post right now, due to jury duty (my first ever) today taking up my time and the Duke/Carolina game tonight taking up my thoughts, but wanted to get a quick note or two in...

As usual, it's hard to find a definite source for delegate counts. I wanted to compare the actual results to my predictions. I checked my spreadsheet of predictions, and found i had correctly predicted the winner of 16 of the 21 super tuesday contests for the GOP. My misses were (with predicted / actual):

Missouri (Huckabee/McCain) - oh so close!
Alaska (Paul/Romney) - threw a bone to Paul supporters, half in fun
Minnesota (McCain/Romney) - Mitt's caucus organization prevails
North Dakota (McCain/Romney)
Oklahoma (Huckabee/McCain) - my birthplace lets me down

So delegate counts don't figure to be too far off. I was, as i suspected, too optimistic about Huckabee, even though he far exceeded media expectations.

P.S. Go Blue Devils!

Show Me

2008-02-06T01:15:00.000-05:00

Missouri didn't go the way we wanted, but Governor Romney did even worse than expected. Governor Huckabee is still in this thing. I just saw on MSNBC that Romney has spent over $1,000,000 per Delegate won. That's One Million Dollars. At that rate, he would have to spend more than a BILLION dollars to get the necessary Delegates to get the nomination.

It is well past time for Romney to drop out and let Mike face off against Senator McCain one on one.

The Authenticity Gap

2008-02-04T13:52:00.000-05:00

Governor Romney and the echo chamber of Conservative media have been calling for Governor Huckabee to drop out of the race to allow Conservatives to unite behind Romney. There are a few problems with this appeal.

1) Mike Huckabee was leading or tied in all the southern states when this appeal was begun. The result of the constant drumbeat of the lie that this is a "two-man race" has been an erosion of some of Governor Huckabee's support, but polls in the past couple of days have shown that support growing back.

2) Mike Huckabee was in SECOND place in the national polls when this appeal began, so if anyone should have considered dropping out, it should have been THIRD place Romney.

3) A large percentage of those of us who are supporting Governor Huckabee would never consider voting for Romney. One of the draws of Mike Huckabee is his authenticity, that is, he is believable. Mitt Romney has no credibility with those of us who value authenticity. It's one thing to change one's positions. It's quite another to change one's positions about ten minutes before one forms an exploratory committee to run for President. The bottom line is that we just don't believe Mitt Romney. To further cement this "authenticity gap," take another look at points 1 & 2.

For weeks, Mitt Romney and the Conservative media echo chamber have been calling Governor Huckabee a Liberal, but now they claim that he is siphoning off Conservative votes from Romney. How is that possible? It's not. The two claims are mutually exclusive.

Governor Huckabee is by far the most socially Conservative candidate. His Fair Tax plan is the most Conservative economic plan espoused by any of the candidates, and his record as Governor of Arkansas is more Conservative than Romney's record as Governor of Massachusetts. On National Security issues, he is at least the equal of Governor Romney, and I believe that the authenticity gap causes Romney to lose this prong as well.

Mike Huckabee is the best candidate for the three-legged stool of Reagan Conservatism, but many are too blinded by their own hubris or greed to see it.

Super Tuesday

2008-02-03T14:13:00.001-05:00

If John McCain wins Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, or Tennessee on Tuesday, the fault will lie with Mitt Romney, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, and Fred Thompson (Thompson gets included because his strategy in South Carolina weakened Huckabee and bolstered McCain). Mitt Romney cannot stop McCain in the South. Governor Huckabee can.

Super Tuesday Pitch

2008-02-02T15:05:00.001-05:00

This is an email i am sending today to friends and family in the super Tuesday states.

Dear Friends,

I hope this email finds you and your families well. I know that times are tough for some of us, and while we look first to our God for comfort and guidance, we also, as Americans, have the privilege (and duty, i would say) of selecting our governing leaders. You have such an opportunity this Tuesday when your state holds its presidential primary. If you'll indulge an old friend, i'd like to share with you my thoughts. I have no idea where most of you stand politically. I just humbly offer one man's thoughts.

Research / Learn

I've been intensely involved in this process this time around, more so than any previous campaign season. I'll tell you why in a bit, but one thing i've learned, to great dismay, is how the media distorts things. We've long perceived liberal bias in the large media, but what has greatly surprised me is how the conservative media (Rush, Hannity, etc) have made no effort to be "fair & balanced", to the point of proclaiming outright distortions of the records of anyone who is not their favorite. Call me naïve, but whatever happened to real journalism?

Thus, it is critical that we do our own research. Go directly to the sources, bypassing the media filters. Last Spring, i began my presidential search and began checking out the various candidates. I went to their websites and checked out some youtube videos. I wasn't expecting this at all, what with my Bush Fatigue and a growing disillusionment with politics in general, but i quickly became blown away by one candidate.

That candidate is Mike Huckabee. I'm not asking you to support him based merely on my (fwiw) endorsement. I am asking you to give him full consideration based on your own research. Go to mikehuckabee.com, and check out his Huckabee 101 page, or peruse the Issues section. Go to youtube, and watch the Decade of Duty series or the Mike Huckabee story, which cover Mike's 10 year record as Governor of Arkansas.

If you want more of my take, check out my blog – Huck The System (a play on bucking the system). Specifically, check out my view of the 3 pillars of picking a president – ideology, character, and competence. Or my analysis of why someone like Governor Huckabee is the MOST electable Republican in the field. Or where i turn the recent talk of a "two man race" on its ear, where you'll find surprising information about the tax record of Mitt Romney. You can read about my (with Julie) opportunity to meet the Governor last November.

A Vote for Huckabee is a Vote For…?

You should vote your passion in a primary, should you have such. If you lean Huckabee, then vote Huckabee. If you have a clear preference for someone else, go ahead and vote that way. It's what a primary is all about. Most states are not winner-take-all, so every vote is meaningful, and provides extra leverage for your preferred candidate and the issues that candidate holds dear.

But if you're undecided, or if you chief goal now is to thwart McCain, then you could consider pragmatic things. For example, if you live in a Southern state, most polls have shown that Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain are pretty close to each other, with McCain surging in the past couple of weeks. Now i personally don't have a big problem with John McCain, but i know many people find him too moderate for their tastes, and want someone more conservative. Mitt Romney would have us believe that he should be that guy, but it's pretty clear that he has no chance in the south. So, if stopping McCain is a goal, i submit that you should be strategic and vote Huckabee.

Why I Like Governor Huckabee

I am strongly supporting Governor Huckabee for President for many reasons. If you've seen any of the GOP debates, then you know how articulate and engaging his speaking style is. Governor Huckabee comes across – even more so in person – as wholly authentic, not a powerpoint crafted, poll-driven politician. He has this way of connecting with everyday Americans. And he's funny, too. In the tedium of incessant campaigns, and with the prospect of listening to a president for 4 or more years, that's quite an overlooked trait. This is a man of character, a man of humble beginnings, but aspirational achievements.

Having first been drawn in by his style, i then turned to his ideology, and found a candidate who is much like me. Not 100% – no one is – but a nice blend of social conservatism (without the self-righteous anger) and Reagan-style patriotism and core fiscal principles such as trusting people over big-powers like governments, of budgetary restraint so that we aren't just moving our burdens to our offspring. In short, government should be our first answer for very few things, but for those very few things, government should perform in an efficient and effective way. Get the job done while spending as little as possible. His campaign has been like that, living on smarts and frugality, while the self-funded Romney has flooded your TV and radio with misleading ads.

Character – check. Issues – check. So what about competence? As governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee transformed the state government into the modern era, making it one of the most internet-friendly of all states (imagine that – Arkansas leading the way in technology). He transformed a budget deficit left by his indicted predecessor into a huge budget surplus which is returning to the people with lower taxes. He led a popular initiative to improve Arkansas roads from one of the worst in the nation to now the most improved. He tried innovative educational programs which led to a recent 8^th place ranking by Education Week.

Here are some of his accomplishments in bullet form…

• Improved roads from the worst in the nation to most improved.
• Left office with a record budget surplus, after inheriting a deficit
• Grew the Arkansas economy at a rate higher than the national average
• Sponsored the largest broad-based tax cut in Arkansas history
• Cut the state welfare rolls in half
• Created the innovative health-care program for Arkansas children called ARKids, cutting the number of uninsured children in half.
• Created the innovative Smart Start and Smart Step education programs, which led to markedly improved student test scores
• Created the innovative Smart Core curriculum standards, which led to a massive increase in the number of AP tests taken by high-schoolers.
• Chaired the National Governors' Association
• Named one of America's Top 5 Governors by TIME
• Named a "Distinguished Public Health Legislator of the Year" in 2005
• Awarded the AARP's Impact Award in 2006
• Named a top "Doer, Dreamer & Driver" by Government Technology magazine, after leading AR to a top 10 finish in the 2004 Digital States Survey.
• Effectively handled the influx of 75,000 Katrina evacuees

What's Next?

If you are on the Huckabee train, great! Spread the word to your family, friends and neighbors, especially if you've learned some things that the media doesn't mention. This has been a frugal, grassroots campaign, and so every foot soldier is important.
If you have further questions, or specific concerns about a particular issue, i'd be glad to dialogue with you about it.
If you prefer to do something else, not a problem. Thanks for reading this far.
Don't forget to vote on Tuesday!

Huckabee is a BUY - OUTPERFORM

2008-02-02T00:38:00.000-05:00

Governor Huckabee continued his (and our) theme yesterday, attacking this anti-democratic notion by Romney and his media mouthpieces that other candidates should get out of his way. This from a short blurb in the New York Sun, where Huckabee parries the MBA sword and thrusts it back at Romney...

"Why doesn't he drop out? Look at how much money he spent to get the same market share that I've got," the former Arkansas governor told a public affairs forum in San Francisco, the Commonwealth Club. "My message is obviously selling a lot better than his because look at how much he's had to put behind it to market it, and it's barely sold. I have fewer resources, but I've sold as much of the product as he has."

Mr. Huckabee said Mr. Romney, who founded a business consulting firm, Bain Capital, should be able to recognize the trend lines. "He's an MBA and a smart business guy. If he were applying the same kind of business standard that he applied at Bain Capital, he'd be saying Huckabee's got a more efficient operation. They're getting a better market share than me for less money. Let's invest in him," the former Arkansas governor said.

Mitt Romney's Latest Lie

2008-02-01T13:18:00.001-05:00

I believe that the word "lie" is thrown around way too often these days. We call
things lies that don't really fit the definition. However, the latest campaign
dirty trick from Mitt Romney is a classic lie.

It appears that Romney is making calls to voters and telling them that the
Republican race is now a two-man contest. The text of the calls is this:

Hello, This is Governor Mitt Romney. The race for the Republican nomination for
president is now a two person race. Our party, I believe, is at a critical
crossroads, and the future of conservatism is very much at stake. I believe the
choice before us is quite clear: Do we support the liberal policies of the
Washington D.C. crowd, or do we want to fight for the conservative principles
that have defined our party for more than a century? I believe that our policies
have to remain rooted in conservative thought. Together, you and I can begin to
change Washington. That's why I need your vote on Tuesday

The fact is that Mike Huckabee is still very much in this race. As oso diablo
and I have both calculated, unless Romney's and the media's efforts to undermine
him work, Mike should be in second place in Delegates after Tuesday. If those
efforts do work, then the media will come out next week and say, "See, we told
you Huckabee wasn't a viable candidate," but the truth will be that they
torpedoed his campaign with this false rhetoric.

The conventional wisdom still claims that without money, a candidate can't win.
Well, Mike Huckabee proved in Iowa that it's not true in all cases.

I implore you, do not fall for the lie that voting for Mike Huckabee hands the
nomination to John McCain. Voting for Mike Huckabee improves the chances that
Mike Huckabee will be the Republican nominee. Don't listen to Mitt Romney and
the Conservative media echo chamber when they lie to you and say this is a
two-man race between Romney and McCain. They think if they say it enough, you
might believe it. And if you believe it, it will make it come true.

RSDO Part II

2008-01-31T22:46:00.001-05:00

I was going to post some more good reasons why Romney should drop out, if anyone should. But The Thomas Report covered them all already. Huckabee...

Better debater & communicator
Able to pull in non-typical constituencies, such as the African-American vote
Greater history of winning tough elections
Has defeated the Clinton political machine

If you're a first-time visitor here, i know i'm blowing your mind. But spend 5 minutes really thinking about this. The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every turn in this election (except for the prediction that Hillary & Bill would resort to their old tricks). Don't get sucked in to the same old inanities.

Romney Should Drop Out

2008-01-31T18:59:00.001-05:00

The conventional wisdom from the meanstream media (stole that from another poster at Huck's Army) is that the GOP race is down to two people – McCain vs. Romney. Mitt, of course, has seized on this theme and has asserted that a vote for Governor Huckabee is a vote for John McCain. If this is truly to become a two-man race, and the goal is to defeat the momentum-laden McCain (assuming last night's woeful performance in the debate didn't stop his momentum in its tracks), then the best thing to do is coalesce around the most conservative candidate, the most electable candidate, the candidate with the most upside. That candidate is not Mitt Romney; it's Mike Huckabee.

Most Conservative

Mitt likes to proclaim himself the standard-bearer on the 3-legged stool of conservatism, with the 3 legs being social, fiscal, and national security issues. Like he triumphantly proclaimed last night that of course Ronald Reagan would endorse him. But just because i can slap on a glove and cleats doesn't mean you should put me in at shortstop. Is Mitt Romney the Sidd Finch of politics? Is there any there there?

Consider the 3 leg formulation.

Social – even if we believe that Romney has finally hit his conservative political puberty and has truly converted to the prolife position (at most it's a position with him, not a cause) and other social conservative bona fides, he would still lag far behind Governor Huckabee's convictions, record, and prospects on this leg. A big win for Huckabee
National Security – Like almost all governors, you'll find little directly relevant foreign policy experience for either candidate. This would turn on judgment, toughness, and leadership. I'm not impressed with Romney's CEO experience and so don't give the leadership advantage that he surely thinks he owns. I believe Huckabee has better judgment and would be tougher with aggressive regimes.
Fiscal – Romney believes this is his trump card. But here's your trump card...

TAX FREEDOM DAY

A tax freedom day is the day in the calendar when you've worked long enough in the new year to afford to pay all your taxes. It's a sad commentary on our times, but this date is usually in April, and seems to fall later and later (see table 1 at the link) all the time. In 2007, it is estimated that the national tax freedom day was April 30th. So let's compare the records of Governors Huckabee and Romney in their respective states, looking at the Tax Freedom Day when they took office vs. when each left office.

Governor/State	TFD – Start	TFD - End	Net Effect
Huckabee / AR	April 22	April 22	Same
Romney / MA	April 21	May 6	15 days WORSE

If you don't mind working an extra two weeks for the government, then by all means believe the talking heads that Romney is the fiscal conservative.

Most Electable

I covered this in my Typologies post, showing the polling evidence that Governor Huckabee would be a better general election candidate than Romney. You can also look at the head to head polls compiled at RCP. Against Clinton, Huckabee fares 2-3 points better than Romney does. Against Obama, Huckabee also fares better than does Romney. Granted, neither candidate is polling well against those two right now, but this has been a consistent pattern – Huckabee trumps Romney. Governor Huckabee is more electable than Governor Romney, based on all the evidence we have to study.

Most Upside

Romney has had the powerful two-pronged advantage of both MONEY and MEDIA behind him, and still hasn't won a contested primary other than Michigan, which is practically home for him, given that his father was a popular governor there.

Think about it. Romney has outspent even his well-funded rivals by orders of magnitude that boggle the mind. Millions upon millions on negative ads, distortions of the records of the other candidates. He has all the power of talk radio behind him, all the conservative establishment media serving as surrogate mouthpieces for his campaign.

And what does he have to show for it? If he hasn't been able to beat McCain up until now, why would he all of sudden start doing it next Tuesday or beyond? If anyone should drop out, it should be Romney. The conservative establishment should try something else. That something else is, of course, Governor Huckabee.

Huckabee Endorses Reagan

2008-01-31T08:21:00.000-05:00

The Calvinator mentions the great answer by Governor Huckabee in the debate last night. Here's the clip...

California Debate

2008-01-31T01:10:00.001-05:00

The debate was structured to buy into the fiction that this is only a two-man race between Governor Romney and Senator McCain, but if I have one hope coming form it, it would be that everyone could hear Governor Huckabee's response to the final question of the night. When each candidate was asked if Ronald Reagan would have endorsed them for President, Mike said:

I think it would be incredibly presumptuous and even arrogant for me to try to suggest what Ronald Reagan would do, that he would endorse any of us against the others.

Let me just say this, I'm not going to pretend he would endorse me. I wish he would. I would love that, but I endorse him, and I'm going to tell you why.

It wasn't just his specific policies, but Ronald Reagan was something more than just a policy wonk. He was a man who loved this country, and he inspired this country to believe in itself again.

What made Ronald Reagan a great president was not just the intricacies of his policies, though they were good policies. It was that he loved America and saw it as a good nation and a great nation because of the greatness of its people.

And if we can recapture that, that's when we recapture the Reagan spirit. It's that spirit that has a can-do attitude about America's futures and that makes us love our country whether we're Democrats or Republicans. And that's what I believe Ronald Reagan did -- he brought this country back together and made us believe in ourselves.

And whether he believes in us, I hope we still believe in those things which made him a great leader and a great American.

When I can find some video of it, I'll add it. The best part was that this was the very last statement made by any of the candidates in the debate.

Max Out for Mike

2008-01-30T14:46:00.001-05:00

Friday February 1st has been designated as Max Out for Mike day. If you can give the maximum allowed contribution of $2300 ($4600 per couple), please do so. If you can't give that much, please give the maximum that you can, whether that's $1 or $2299.

You can register your intent at MaxOutForMike.com

I will be Maxing Out for Mike! Will you join me?

Post Florida Report

2008-01-29T22:09:00.001-05:00

Tonight Florida awarded 57 delegates to John McCain. Up next are the 22 states on super Tuesday.

This is what i said on the 20^th after SC. It's still true. Note that Missouri has MORE delegates than did Florida.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates.

Updated Predictions

The smart money tonight is on the end of the Giuliani campaign, and that he'll throw his support to McCain. Certainly, Giuliani's exit would give big winner-take-all states such as NY and NJ to McCain. So here's my latest update, reflecting my assumption of the end of Giuliani, and also taking out any future Thompson delegates (with the inconsequential exception of a few in TN). Still not enough for a majority, but enough to give McCain a clear command of the race, and perhaps enough to get deals worked out by Easter.

Again, this table shows my delegate estimates through 2/5.

Candidate	Original	1/20 est.	1/29 est.
Mike Huckabee	423	338	345
Mitt Romney	194	221	247
John McCain	205	331	636
Rudy Giuliani	359	300	11
Fred Thompson	59	54	8
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68	65

I'm probably still wearing my Huck-colored glasses, but i'll fight to the end.

Next Tuesday, all you have to watch is Missouri. If there's a miracle to be had, it will have to start there.

Ahead of the Curve

2008-01-28T23:05:00.001-05:00

Don't you want your president to be forward-thinking? To drive change, not merely tag along. To put forth innovative ideas, not rehash the same old platitudes. In short, to be a leader and not a follower. Of course you do.

Governor Mike Huckabee is just that. Consider what we've seen on the campaign trail, as Governor Huckabee has led the conversation on many issues, and other candidates have trailed or parroted his ideas. Or will soon.

The most innovative and bold idea on any candidate's platform – Republican or Democrat – in the FairTax.
Energy independence within 8 years & an understanding that it is a national security issue
Exploration of switchgrass as an alternate biofuel
Stimulating OUR economy – not China's – by investing in our infrastructure. Namely, to start with, widening I-95.
Recognizing, several months ahead of the other GOP candidates and the pundits, that the economy was weakening (about a minute into the video)
A focus on actual health, not just health insurance or the medical system
A call for total government transparency
A bill of rights for our military veterans
A detailed plan to address illegal immigration
A focus on whole-brain education
Closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay, a position for which he was criticized by Fred Thompson, only to have the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs come out just a few days later saying the exact same thing, agreeing with Governor Huckabee

The Governor is stereotyped as a bumpkin', a view that i count as bigotry. Prejudice against southerners, against evangelicals. But he is leading the intellectual charge.

What to Expect on Tuesday

2008-01-27T13:30:00.000-05:00

Tuesday is the Florida Primary. Here's a list of what I think you can expect:

Mike Huckabee will come in either 4th or 3rd.

The media will declare that this means his candidacy is doomed.

Conservative media will openly speculate that Mike will drop out before Super Tuesday

Mike Huckabee will not drop out.

You need to Watch This

2008-01-26T16:27:00.000-05:00

And send the link you all you friends.

Great Article

2008-01-26T16:16:00.000-05:00

This article does an excellent job explaining the appeal of Governor Huckabee and the frustration one feels as one of his supporters at the attacks from "friendly fire" he has received pretty much non-stop for the past month plus.

WallBuilders

2008-01-26T16:09:00.000-05:00

I know that Huckabee's weaknesses aren't in the Social Conservative area, but I felt it would be good to point folks to the WallBuilders Voters Guide.

(Semi) Live Blogging the FL Debate

2008-01-24T21:19:00.000-05:00

Bullets added as debate rolls on, with more recent comments at the top...

Awesome segment there with the Governor talking over and standing up to Russert's pessimism. "That's the problem in America. Everyone talks about what we can't do; we need to talk about what we can do, whether it's overhauling the tax system or reaching energy independence." Not an exact quote. That's leadership. That's exactly right, Governor!
There's a 10-12% inflation rate, Dr. Paul? I guess if all you spend money on is surgery, and don't spend anything on groceries or phone bills and such.
There's the Bill Clinton mention. I win some points at Politico's Kingmaker.
I agree with McCain about the gang of 14. And i agree with Medved in general that the same goofs who are lying about Huckabee's record are lying about McCain's record.
Rudy is stealing Mike's lines about energy independence?
Does Mitt fib again about the 2nd amendment?
There's that Kemp/Gramm roll-call again! LOL.
Ron Paul is an economy wonk at heart, and he can't get away from that.
Pretty good defense of the FairTax, and he mentioned that current prices already reflect embedded taxes.
Interesting that McCain is asking Governor Huckabee about the FairTax. This is not how i expected this segment to go. It almost sounds like a set-up, like perhaps these guys had a pre-arranged deal. We'll see when Huckabee asks his question.
If Rudy is crafty, he would turn Mitt's (long-awaited) question around on him, and say that one thing we cannot do is have American companies, like Mitt's Bain Capital, partnering with China to undermine our military independence.
Mitt is supposed to ask a question, but he's making a speech.
Huckabee should have talked about radical Islamic fascists, not Easter Eggs.
Good answer by Giuliani about the 60% poll (the hindsighters who say the Iraq war was not worth it).
So Romney put together a National Guard version of a GI bill, but he's not a big-government conservative? Now, i don't think he is, but we should use the same standard for Governor Huckabee.
Huckabee read my mind. It's not about the richie-riches.
Who's doing their 2010 budget already?
Russert references the "prosperity gap" for the GOP. This is the killer, mostly unspoken news for the GOP this year. It's not just Bush; it's this general belief among Americans that the Democrats are the better party for the economy. If the GOP is to have any hope at all, they HAVE to close this gap, and it won't happen with a business-as-usual Republican (ie, Romney). It will take someone who can connect with the middle class.
A 9/11 reference for Giuliani, but it comes from Brian Williams, not Rudy. Oops, no, of course, Rudy goes in depth about a ground zero story.
Two hits already on Sarbanes-Oxley. Good! Being in the corporate world, i see SOX as more government meddling and a bureaucratic boondoggle. Companies are spending enormous resources to stay in compliance. This, to me, is worse regulation, in terms of real impact, than the reviled McCain-Feingold.
McCain has taken to this roll-call of fiscal conservatives who are supporting him. That's cool and all (i'm a big fan of Jack Kemp, to take one example), but i doubt it resonates with the average voter. I'm into this stuff and even i don't recognize all those names, but if i'm an average voter, i'm sure those are all rich old white guys.
Romney asserts that he faced a $3 billion budget deficit. But this is misleading, as the Boston Globe has repeatedly pointed out. There's some truth to Romney's success story, but it is way overblown. You'd think a Harvard MBA wouldn't need to resume-pad.
Interesting proposal from Governor Huckabee to widen I-95 by 2 lanes. Totally avoids the bait to attack Romney. And an intriguing point about whose economy - ours or China's? - will be most stimulated by these so-called stimulus packages.

ATTN: IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, MICHIGAN, NEVADA, & SOUTH CAROLINA HUCKABEE (and Hunter) VOTERS

2008-01-24T14:54:00.001-05:00

Your job is not done. If you voted for Governor Huckabee (or Duncan Hunter), and you don't want that vote to go to waste, you need to step up and contribute so that your candidate of choice will be able to see this race to the finish line.

If everyone who has already voted for Huckabee & Hunter would donate just $25, it would raise $8,660,450. If each only gave $10, it would add up to $3,464,180.

Make sure your vote continues to matter.

Now, to people who haven't voted yet.

If you haven't given any money, what are you waiting for? You can't give $25 to the most inspiring Presidential candidate in 24 years? You can't give $10?

If you have already given, but aren't maxed out, You can't give another $25 to the most inspiring Presidential candidate in 24 years? You can't give another $10?

The Reports of Huckabee's (Political) Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

2008-01-23T23:42:00.000-05:00

Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.

Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.

For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).

Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.

Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.

I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.

The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).

Update on FL

2008-01-21T10:11:00.001-05:00

I just confirmed that Florida will be a statewide winner-take-all primary. I had seen sites suggesting that, but none of them provided an original source to back up what just appeared to be speculation. But it's true. Back in August, after the national GOP stripped a few states of half their delegates for attempting to jump-the-2/5-gun, the Florida GOP decided to change their delegate process to award all of the 57 delegates to whichever candidate got the most votes across the entire state.

My calculations below do not take that into account, but aside from any momentum effect (a missing animal this year), this change wouldn't have a major impact on the counts. It would mean that any of 3 candidates - Huckabee, Giuliani or McCain - could emerge from Super Tuesday with the most delegates (i suppose Romney could too, but i can't see it), but no one would still have a sizeable lead, and nowhere near on track for a majority.

I'm hopeful for Governor Huckabee, but Florida has never been a state i expected him to win outright. I was banking on securing the delegates from the northern and central parts of the state. There's a chance, of course, of a victory, but i'd peg it at less than 10%. We supporters must keep working.

Expanding the Base

2008-01-20T11:27:00.001-05:00

Exit poll after exit poll has told the same story for Governor Huckabee. So far, he's been a one-trick pony, capturing primarily the born-again vote. Of course, that's his political brand, and it's a strong one. And, given that fully 45% of Americans adults call themselves evangelical and/or born-again, it's not a bad place to build a campaign, particularly in the GOP side. But it's a foundation only, not a livable house. To build an electoral house, the Governor must expand his base of support beyond born-agains. I say this as one of those 45%.

It would one thing if Huckabee could garner a near-unanimous tally among evangelicals, like Mitt Romney captured Mormons in Nevada yesterday. Romney got 94% of the Mormon vote yesterday! That's astounding. And if that had been evangelicals for Huckabee, you would have seen garment-rending among the media. Theocracy! Theocracy! Theocracy! But i digress.

Some suggestions…

STOP the God & Constitution rhetoric. I suspect this one comment hurt Huckabee way more than has been measured, and way more than anything he has said before. It doesn't really matter what nuance he meant. Given voter suspicions already, this totally fed into those fears. I know, and most of my readers know, that he was merely talking about the two parts of his platform that call for Constitutional amendments – protecting unborn children and the sanctity of marriage – and why it's ok to pursue amendments. But he has to talk about those things in Constitutional terms, and saying it is what God wants doesn't cut it. There are plenty of reasons to stand up for innocent children in the womb that don't require Christian Identity language. A purely God-approach to public-square arguments is more likely to undermine the cause than to advance it. It pains me to say this, but i believe it's true.
STOP preaching on Sunday mornings. I know some Huckabee supporters will blanch at this point. I personally think it's great that he goes into a church and preaches the gospel, as opposed to the typical politician who makes a barely-concealed stump speech. But the rules for Huckabee now are different, presuming he wants to become President. Alternatively, keep making the appearances, but adjust the message. You don't have to avoid God-talk here, but it would make more sense to deliver a strong message with broader appeal. Preach about ministering to the poor and needy. Preach about the fruit of the Spirit. But the current approach of talking about Christians winning in the end and what-not is counter-productive in the context of the election. It reminds me of Gene Simmons on Celebrity Apprentice, with the nose-thumbing of i'm going to do what i want, i don't care what the experts say, fire me if you wish. I guess that's great if you want to just be on TV, but not if you're actually interested in winning the race you're in.
Reach out to a conservative group like Heritage Foundation or CATO. Make a speech; write an article like the one i posted on Friday. You have a lot of good things to talk about.
Tighten up your message when you get free media. Enough of the aw-shucks quips about flak and hunter-targets and hit-dogs. If you're asked about taxes, say simply: In Arkansas, our economy grew faster than the national average, we moved from a large budget deficit to an even larger budget surplus, we made vast improvements in roads & education, we made government work again, and we did it all with a tax burden BELOW the national average. If you are asked a God question, say simply: i believe firmly in the founders' view of the separation of church & state, and of religious freedom as embedded in our Constitution. Our goal is to make American a better place, and all viewpoints, whether from the religious or non-religious, are welcome in the debate about what that means. If Fred Thompson tries to put you in the Blame America First crowd, explode back at him with a "How dare you question my patriotism, Senator!"
Insist that the media refer to you as Governor Huckabee, which is the proper salutation and etiquette, and not merely as a Baptist preacher.

Why this is important

Governor Huckabee's message and platform should have broader appeal beyond born-agains. He should be a candidate who appeals to prolife Catholics, to conservatives & moderates concerned about our stewardship of the environment, to conservatives who question whether government is approaching the economy in the right way, to other non-traditional constituencies. But those inclined to consider him are turned off by the continued Christian Identity politics. They aren't going to understand little phrases that are innocuous to evangelicals, but troubling for those not in the club. It makes it easy for them to ignore him in the voting booth. I bet there are even legions of FairTax fans that are queasy. But it doesn't have to be that way. This is still a winnable election.

Checking the Toteboard

2008-01-20T09:39:00.001-05:00

It's tough to lose a state you expected to win, and i'll take a closer look at the ramifications of that later, but this is a good time to pause and recheck my delegate count predictions. In a normal primary season, momentum would be king, but this year is different. No candidate has been able to capitalize on a primary win, in terms of momentum for the next round. And since everyone (but the self-funded Romney and the quixotic Paul) is pretty much broke, there's really little reason to drop out before Super Tuesday on Feb 5^th. No, this year appears to be, as i've been saying for a while now, an old-fashioned delegate grab.

Results Through SC

In the first 6 primaries and/or caucuses, in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina, there have been 154 delegates available. That's only 6.6% of all available delegates. By the end of 2/5, there will be another 1158 delegates awarded. That's about 8 times more than have been already awarded. This is still an open race, and will depend on who can capture hearts in the next two weeks.

Back in December, i predicted delegate wins for each candidate in each state. Let's look at how that's gone so far. I had predicted two wins apiece for Huckabee (IA and SC), Romney (MI & NV), and McCain (WY & NH). Romney ended up winning 3, taking WY, too. McCain got his two, substituting a far more important SC for WY. Huckabee lags with only one win.

But what about delegates? Check out the table below which shows actual delegates with my predictions. One caveat first: different news outlets show different totals for Iowa. The AP gives 30 delegates to Huckabee and 7 to Romney, based on historical caucus-to-delegate outcomes in that state. Other outlets merely show a proportional awarding based on the statewide vote totals. I know the later method is incorrect, but for this table, i took an average of the two approaches.

Candidate	Predicted	Actual
Mike Huckabee	37	34
Mitt Romney	56	59
John McCain	32	38
Rudy Giuliani	11	1
Fred Thompson	3	7
Others (Paul, etc)	15	7

Pretty much right on track, with the notable exception of Giuliani. I'm stunned with his poor performance. I know he hasn't campaigned that much in these states, but his background and name recognition alone should have been worth more than this. I had Giuliani with the 2^nd most delegates by 2/5, with big wins in NY, NJ, and CA. All those, believe it or not, are now in jeopardy. We could probably safely swap Giuliani and McCain's delegate predictions, but the essential premise would remain: this is still too muddled, and no one will have a majority, or even a clear advantage, after Super Tuesday.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates. He needs to capture a few congressional districts in FL and CA and IL.

Updated Predictions

We could plausibly wake up on February 6^th and find almost a 4-way battle on delegate counts. It seems each of the major 4 candidates has a solid non-majority constituency and/or a region of strength. Let the deal-making begin. I'm sticking by my prediction of a Huckabee/McCain ticket, in either direction.

Candidate	Original	Updated
Mike Huckabee	423	338
Mitt Romney	194	221
John McCain	205	331
Rudy Giuliani	359	300
Fred Thompson	59	54
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68

Governor Huckabee at Heritage

2008-01-18T21:38:00.001-05:00

I am a long-time member of (more than that, i make an automatic monthly contribution to) the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank based in Washington DC. Their primary purpose is to assist political leaders, particularly Senators and House members, craft public policy that comports with conservative principles. Well, heck, here is their mission statement.

Founded in 1973, The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institute - a think tank - whose mission is to formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.

Early in his tenure as Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee presented a lecture at Heritage called "Cutting Taxes and Other Great Ideas for Congress". I have highlighted some good excerpts…

In Arkansas…, there are conservatives who believe that government really does need to get smaller, not larger; who believe that the best government is the most local government; who believe that taxes should be smaller; and who try to bring more efficiencies into what we do in government. And the good news is that this message of smaller, more efficient and accountable government is selling in our state.
The executive branch cannot accomplish anything without working with the legislative branch, sitting down with them, negotiating, and treating the members with respect because they were elected just like I was.
One of the greatest challenges that I faced as governor of a state like Arkansas was that for 162 years the tax burden on Arkansans always went up. It never went down… But, for the first time in 1997 and again this session, the old paradigm was no longer valid. The big battle was no longer, "Which taxes will we raise and by how much?" but, "Which taxes will we cut and by how much?"
We passed a comprehensive income tax relief package, marking the first time in Arkansas' history that the state had seen a major, broad-based income tax cut. This $90.6 million tax relief measure lessened the tax burden on Arkansans in many ways.
- Ended the income tax marriage penalty
- Below the poverty line? No income tax
- Ended bracket creep by indexing to inflation
- Doubled the allowable child care credit
- Eliminated the capital gains tax on sale of primary home
In both 1997 and 1999, we produced balanced budgets with tax relief in the budgets. In other words, we budgeted for tax relief. By finding savings to pay for new programs, we proved it was possible to propose new and needed programs by reallocating resources while still providing tax relief. This has never before been accomplished in Arkansas.
Character-based education has become a very important component of our education structure in Arkansas, and school districts have options on how they implement it… Children need to understand there are consequences for living out virtues, and we've already seen some pretty convincing results: discipline problems are going down and the learning atmosphere has improved dramatically.
In addition to making it possible, through the Fair Dismissal Act, to get rid of teachers who are not doing the job and who are violating their contract, we also passed a bill that will provide financial incentives up to $2,000 a year of additional money for teachers who show extraordinary excellence in teaching.
44 percent of the people on welfare a year and a half ago are now off the welfare rolls and are in jobs and working.
These are some of the things we've done, and they are proof positive that cutting taxes, making government performance-driven and accountable to the people, and bringing some sense of real fairness to government's overall approach is making life better for all our citizens.

Now does that look anything like a liberal to you? Don't believe the nonsense you hear from cranky political opponents. And consider that, around the same time Governor Huckabee delivered this address and set his state on a new path of conservatism, John McCain and Fred Thompson were in the Senate cooking up some new bitter brew called campaign finance reform, and this same duo would soon be strategizing to make McCain the 2000 GOP nominee for president.

Comparison Chart

2008-01-18T20:48:00.001-05:00

This isn't the same old boring candidate comparison chart. You can find those anywhere. No, this is a chart showing the similarities between Governor Huckabee and this site's two bloggers.

Note: those symbols were little check marks in Word/Excel, but in blogger it appears they have transformed into ballots. Omen?

Characteristic	Governor Huckabee	oso diablo	the calvinator
Conservative			
ProLife			
Born on Aug 24			
First Name is Michael		
Middle Name is Dale			
Raised Baptist			
Did Theater in high school			
Attended Baptist university			
Graduated with honors			
Raised in small town near Ark-La-Tex border			
Plays guitar	
Has run a marathon	
Holds/Had a FCC license for radio DJ		
Holds/Had a license to preach			
Wife's name starts with J			
Has a son named David		
Has a daughter named Sarah			
Has run for public office			
Named one of America's best governors	
Authored numerous books	
Endorsed by Chuck Norris	
Best hope for the 2008 election	

And the Rich Shall Inherit the White House

2008-01-17T10:11:00.000-05:00

This is no way to pick a president. When the system hinges on who can write the biggest personal check to fund their campaign, then America is in trouble. It's a key step toward a plutocracy.

I'm reacting to an article at Real Clear Politics which logically concludes:

In a weird way, the GOP presidential primary campaign now hinges on Mitt Romney. More specifically, it hinges on whether Romney will be willing to spend as much of his personal fortune as necessary to win the GOP nomination. That could amount to as much as $40 million, on top of the $17 million he has already contributed to the cause. If he does decide to fully fund his own campaign, then he will be able to outspend his rivals on television advertising by as much as 10-to-1 in state after state after state (think: February 5th). If someone asks you: "can Mitt Romney win the GOP nomination?" ask them: "is he willing to write the check?"

Romney outspent his nearest rival by more than 3 to 1 in Michigan (in addition to promising to spend your tax dollars to the tune of $20 billion to prop up the Detroit auto industry). He outspent Governor Huckabee by 15 to 1 in Iowa, though Iowans gratefully saw through that.

The best way to buck this system is to Huck this system. Vote for the candidate outside this money-driven, inside-establishment system. Cast your vote for Mike Huckabee. Another way to make your voice heard is to contribute (just click the Ranger link at the top right).

Arkansas CEOs: Look Past "Shallow Rhetoric"

2008-01-16T22:16:00.000-05:00

Six corporate leaders based in Arkansas today encouraged voters to "look past the shallow rhetoric of yet another campaign season" and truly check out the stellar record of leadership from Governor Huckabee in their state.

Here's the entire statement (emphasis added)...

Columbia, SC - Today, the following businessmen from Arkansas released a statement in support of former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee: Scott T. Ford, President and CEO, Alltel Corporation; Warren A. Stephens, President and CEO, Stephens Inc.; Madison Murphy, Former Chairman, Murphy Oil Corporation; John Tyson, Chairman of the Board, Tyson Foods, Inc; and French Hill, Chairman and CEO, Delta Trust and Banking Corporation:

"We are a traditionally bi-partisan group of executives of several of the largest corporations headquartered in the State of Arkansas, each with considerable exposure to the Administration of Governor Mike Huckabee. Of late, Governor Huckabee has attracted what we believe to be unwarranted criticism regarding his business record."

"Our experience with Governor Huckabee indicates that he not only values greatly the freedoms of religion and liberty, but of the free market as well. He is an atypical leader who garnered the respect of not only the professional business community but of the working men and women across our State as well."

"When he became our Governor, he inherited our long sub-standard education system, infrastructure, and regulatory climate. Under his leadership, we were able to grow our businesses, increase our employment, reduce our litigation exposure and enjoy, along with all of our fellow Arkansans, a healthier economy, improved schools, updated highways, and new healthcare delivery facilities."

"In our support of Governor Huckabee's truly conservative, small government business outlook and his pragmatic, yet compassionate style of governing, we invite you to look past the shallow rhetoric of yet another campaign season to see what we have experienced first hand - that with the right political leadership in place, businesses and citizens can jointly prosper and as they do, they contribute so much more to the economic and societal fabric of a community than simply tax revenues."

The Good News from Michigan

2008-01-15T22:17:00.001-05:00

Governor Huckabee enjoyed a late bounce in support. His numbers were higher among folks who decided on their vote in the past 3 days and those who decided today.

Hopefully, this bodes well for South Carolina.

Who's the Liberal?

2008-01-15T22:13:00.000-05:00

So, who carried self-identified Liberals in the Michigan Republican Primary?

McCain, who has been repeatedly attacked as a Liberal?

Huckabee, whom the Conservative media has also labeled a Liberal?

NOPE.

Romney

Michagan Exit Poll data

Issue: Economics

2008-01-15T14:38:00.000-05:00

I'm not going to type a long defense of Governor Huckabee's Economic record or plan. Instead, I'm simply going to point everyone to the video of Governor Huckabee's speech to the Detroit Economic Club last Friday.

There should be a new rule that any critic must address what the Governor said in this speech before being allowed to attack him as a "Liberal."

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Part 4:

Part 5:

This is one of the best speeches I have ever heard, and I have two degrees in Speech Communication, so I've studied some of the best.

The Lofty Goal

2008-01-15T14:35:00.000-05:00

The Huckabee campaign has set a fundraising goal of $10,000,000 by Super Tuesday, February 5th. Putting the calculator to it, this means the campaign needs to raise $407,619.64 per day. That may sound daunting, but that's only $16,984.15/hour. And that breaks down to $283.07/minute.

Let's make it happen. If you aren't already maxed out, please donate before February 5th. If you are already maxed out, find somebody else to donate.

George Will Comes Around

2008-01-13T13:34:00.000-05:00

Well, not really, but I'm going to use his latest column to illustrate why he, and all Republicans, should support Mike Huckabee.

Will writes:

Today, all the usual indicators are dismal for Republicans. If that sweeping assertion seems counterintuitive, produce a counterexample. The adverse indicators include: shifts in voters' identifications with the two parties (Democrats now 50 percent, Republicans 36 percent); the tendency of independents (they favored Democratic candidates by 18 points in 2006); the fact that Democrats hold a majority of congressional seats in states with 303 electoral votes; the Democrats' strength and the Republicans' relative weakness in fundraising; the percentage of Americans who think the country is on the "wrong track"; the Republicans' enthusiasm deficit relative to Democrats' embrace of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, one of whom will be nominated. (emphasis added)

Governor Huckabee can bring back the Independent voters who have been flocking away from the Republicans. I believe he can also bring back the Reagan Democrats, who are pro-life, but a little more Moderate on economic issues.

Is Mitt Romney going to inspire Independents? Fred Thompson? Rudy Giuliani?

Oh, and I think I should point out that Will's point seems to be that since the Republicans are going to lose anyway, they ought to go down with a 100% rock-ribbed Conservative. Of course, I'm not sure who he thinks fits that qualification.

Arthur Branch Lives!

2008-01-13T10:38:00.001-05:00

The previously moribund and laconic Fred Thompson fired a broadside against Governor Huckabee in the recent South Carolina debate. Reading from notes, Thompson catalogued a litany of supposed "sins" by the apostate Huckabee. It's true that he doesn't hew to the rabid orthodoxy of talk-show conservatism, and that he confounds the elites. But Thompson's shot represents part of what we decry about the political process. It's barely better than the freak show, reducing nuanced policy positions to half-truth soundbites, in a format that does not lend itself to response. It's time to grow up.

My first reaction was "well, looks like Arthur Branch nailed his lines, and on the first take, too." The outburst reminded me of someone who half-wakes from a dream, and loudly and urgently blurts out something incomprehensible. A mom would sooth, "that's ok sweetie, just go back to sleep."

But that's just me being snarky.

As for the charges themselves, The Calvinator takes on one of them below – school choice and vouchers. As for the NEA of New Hampshire support, i find it foolhardy to eschew the support of a large group of Americans. I'm glad that some of these unions are recognizing that a large portion of their members are conservative, and wish to express their support of a conservative candidate, not just the same-old Democratic entrenchment. Reagan understood that, garnering the endorsement of the Teamsters and PATCO, and 44% of the union vote in the 1980 election. McCain echoed that approach in the 2000 primary.

Blame America first? How can anyone honestly look at Huckabee's platform and conclude that? It's just an immature bromide. I've never heard any leader talk more authentically and passionately about the founding fathers, about the Declaration of Independence. Huckabee is insistent about American sovereignty. He was the first candidate to come out strongly against the Law of the Sea Treaty, due to concerns about our sovereignty. He talks about the pride of knowing you're in a country that people want to break into, not out of. Huckabee loves America.

Guantanamo? Here are Huckabee's comments in a press release from December. He advocates the same position as John McCain, which is that if the legal assumption bears out (awaiting a SCOTUS ruling) that no additional rights would be granted, then there is tremendous symbolic benefit from closing Guantanamo and moving the combatants to Ft. Leavenworth. By the way, i couldn't find any online evidence that Fred Thompson has visited Guantanamo for a first-hand view, as the other candidates have, including Huckabee.

Taxpayer-funded programs for illegals? There is nothing in Huckabee's platform that would do that. In fact, his immigration plan is tough enough for the endorsement of the founder of the Minutemen, Jim Gilchrist. The reference is surely to the college scholarship plan that Huckabee had in Arkansas, where children of illegals could qualify for a state college scholarship, provided they met the academic criteria AND were applying for US citizenship. Besides that, if you think of this issue logically, we already provide taxpayer funding education for illegals, with our K-12 public schools. This position has been enforced by the Supreme Court, and can be justified on economic rationality grounds. If they're here, it's better to be educated than not. The solution isn't to leave them uneducated; the solution is to choke off the flow first.

Ban smoking nationwide? Again, there is nothing in Huckabee's platform that calls for that. He has stated, at the Lance Armstrong Cancer Forum last summer, that if Congress signed a bill banning smoking in public places, that he would sign it, as he did in Arkansas. Based on worker safety issues. It's a reasonable position, though i do agree there is some merit to the federalism criticism that Fred makes.

But the main point of all this is that this Thompson approach doesn't lend itself to a grown-up review of the issues facing us. Thompson earlier called for more substantive Lincoln-Douglas type debates, but then backed off (chickened out?) when Huckabee took him up on the offer. BRING IT ON, i say. His broadside in the Myrtle Beach was the very example of what he had decried about the process. Thompson was right then; what happened?

P.S. Thompson also (tellingly?) flubbed the definition of the "Reagan Coalition", leaving off a big chunk of it. He said the coalition was "limited government and a strong national defense." He made no mention of social conservatives, drawn to Reagan and the GOP for their advocacy of pro-life policies, and a general regard for traditional family values. These voters have flocked to the GOP regardless of their economic position.

Interview Questions

2008-01-13T08:05:00.001-05:00

The Huckabee website has a link for bloggers to submit a request for interview. Here's what i would ask…

If you are familiar with Christian Just War Theory, how would you assess our current conflict in Iraq in those terms?
How do you work through which beliefs you hold that should be pursued in public policy, versus those that are better suited for private (or, non-public) pursuit? Are there any general philosophies of government that work well for you to make those calls? (For example, a person might believe that divorce is, more frequently than not, missing the mark spiritually, yet not consider it a problem best solved by prescriptive law.)
One of the reasons i started this particular blog (and called it what i did) was my utter dissatisfaction with our current process of selecting our political leaders, where it tends to be all about name recognition and the ability to raise mega-millions two years in advance. In most seasons, an underfunded, relatively unknown, but politically talented candidate like you goes nowhere. Any suggestions on how we keep the American political dream alive, where any kid can become president, and, perhaps more importantly, ensure that we don't devolve into a plutocracy?
As you reflect on your decade-plus tenure leading the state of Arkansas, what do you consider you greatest accomplishment there? Anything you'd do differently (other than the well-hashed case of Wayne DuMond)? What lessons would you take from the Governor's Mansion to the White House (by the way, don't you love it that governors get mansions, while the president just gets a house)?
One of the criticisms you received from your Arkansas detractors was that you are "thin-skinned". I have to say, I haven't seen that at all during this campaign. Quite the opposite, in fact. Was this ever a fair criticism, and if so, how have you progressed?
A presidential campaign takes you all over America, meeting tons of ordinary Americans. What have you learned about America in this process so far? What goes under-reported by the media about our country?
You have made two quite bold proposals in your platform. One, to abolish the IRS and its associated taxes, replacing it with the innovative FairTax. And two, to achieve energy independence by the end of your 2^nd term. Each idea would be worthy of an extended interview by themselves (which i would be glad to conduct someday). But my question now is this: how do you counter or handle the "nattering nabobs of negativity" (to borrow Safire's phrase) who scoff that such things cannot be done?
There has naturally been a lot of talk of Reagan in this campaign. For me, he is one of the 3 pillars of Republican presidents, the other two being the two guys on Mt. Rushmore – Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt. What do you take from Lincoln and Roosevelt, in terms of your political goals and philosophy, and your leadership style?
Another potshot taken at you is that you wouldn't fare well in the general election. I don't get that one either. I have analyzed the Pew Political Typologies and their historical voting patterns, and find that you are the MOST electable GOP candidate, due to your ability to hold social conservatives, and pull in key swing groups such as the so-called Upbeats, Pro-Government Conservatives, and Disaffecteds. Take a look at my analysis. Was this intentional, or a natural consequence of meeting the people where they are?
Another influential read for me has been the Weekly Standard article called "The Party of Sam's Club" (soon to be expanded into a book called Grand New Party). Are you familiar with it, and if so, has it influenced your campaign at all?

Let the Parents Decide

2008-01-12T19:32:00.000-05:00

Pinging off Calvinator's post below about school choice, i found this interview with Governor Huckabee by Cybercast News Service (Brent Bozell's news outlet) about his views on education matters. If this issue is important for you, it's worth your time to read the entire interview. There are some tough questions, and you may not agree with everything, but it's a good read. He touches on the constitutionality of a federal Dept. of Education, on school choice & voucher proposals, on prayer in public schools, and similar topics.

Here are some highlights (emphases added)...

Q. On December 12, the Concord Monitor ran a story saying that you had met with the New Hampshire chapter of the National Education Association and that the union was endorsing you. The report said: "Huckabee became the first Republican yesterday to be endorsed by the New Hampshire chapter of the National Education Association. In a short press conference, President Rhonda Wesolowski lauded Huckabee's opposition to school vouchers and his commitment to arts and music education." Three days later, on December 15, Catholic Online published an interview with you, and they asked: "Catholics believe that parents are the first teachers of their children and that they should be able to choose how to extend their teaching office from among all of the available alternatives; public schools, charter schools, private and parochial schools and home schools. What is your position on parental choice in education?" You responded to them: "I support parental choice. Parents are much better able to make those decisions for their children than a government bureaucrat." So, which is it? Do you oppose vouchers, which the New Hampshire NEA believes is your position, or do you support school choice that would even allow children to go to Catholic schools, as you told Catholic Online?

A. There is no inconsistency, because what I believe is, first of all, education is a mom and dad decision, not an Uncle Sam position. We ought to empower parents and let them make the best choices for their kids. I'm probably one of the few candidates you have ever seen that has the recommendation of an NEA chapter, but also has the strong national recommendation of home-schoolers. And the reason is because I ultimately do believe it is a mother-and-father decision. The state's purpose is to empower and enable parents to make the decision they believe is right.

But I believe if you are going to have public schools, make them the best they can be. I don't support federally mandating vouchers. If a state wishes to implement a voucher program, they have to decide how it works, and how well it works, and what the criteria would be.What I don't want to do is to have the federal government coming down and telling all 50 states here is how you are going to fund education, here is what vouchers are going to look like. Because in some states, for example mine, it would be very problematic to create a statewide voucher system when most of our schools are rural, they're small, they are miles from another school, the economies of scale simply wouldn't necessarily make it that easy to implement a widespread voucher system. But if local districts wished to do it, if states wish to do it, I think that's fine. It goes back to the basic concept that this is a state's decision.

On home-schools and his record in Arkansas:
When I was governor, I passed some of the friendliest home-school legislation in the country. I was the first governor in the history of America to appoint a home-school parent to state board of education. She served as one of the best members we ever had on the state board. We made it so that parents had more choices. We improved charter schools, and expanded charter schools.

More about the Murphy Commission voucher proposal:
The one area that really did not go well was the idea of implementing vouchers. And, again, there were two reasons. Let me get back to them. One was the opposition we had from Christian school administrators, who were fearful that once you take government money, you take government control. Many of them said they would lose their distinctive nature if they were forced to be under government regulations and government mandates that they frankly didn't want. They did not want that level of interference.

But the second thing that happened, or would potentially happen, was you would have students who if they came to the school without a level that met the full tuition, one of two things: they either then say, look, you are going to have to make up the difference as a private school or we'll sue for discrimination, or, if they win that, then the only people able to go were those who could subsidize the rest of the voucher, and most of the students in my state would have been unable to access it, because there were only a few districts large enough, with the economies of scale, that could have actually implemented the full-scale voucher system.

Issue: School Choice

2008-01-12T18:12:00.001-05:00

One of Fred Thompson's attacks on Governor Huckabee in the South Carolina debate was that our favorite candidate opposes School Choice. Other media talking heads have parroted this same accusation.

Simply put, it isn't true.

The Club for Growth (no fan of Huckabee for sure) wrote this:

Governor Huckabee's record on school choice is mixed. On the one hand, he fought hard to protect the rights of parents to home school their children and was a vocal proponent of charter schools (Arkansas Time 09/22/05). In 1997, he supported a proposal that would expand charter school eligibility to include public and private universities, governmental agencies, and nonprofit organizations (AP 02/12/97). He signed legislation in 1999 that allowed for as many as 12 charter schools to be established in Arkansas, an important achievement given the state's onerous laws governing charter schools (Time 07/10/00).

On the other hand, Governor Huckabee is on record opposing the most important element of genuine school choice-voucher programs that allow poor students in failing public schools to attend private schools and inject much needed competition into a decrepit public education system-because of a concern about government control of parochial schools (Arkansas Times 09/22/05).

Found in: Mike Huckabee's Record on Economic Issues

In short, Governor Huckabee does not oppose School Choice, but he did and does oppose School Vouchers. He's not alone among Conservatives in this regard. Texas Eagle Forum came out in opposition to Vouchers for the very reason Huckabee cites. (Private school vouchers: A conservative view). Governor Huckabee favors expanding the Child Tax Credit (until the Income Tax goes away in its entirety) to assist families in paying private school tuition if they'd like. He also supports policies to allow parents to choose among public schools.

The next time you hear this attack, just remember that Vouchers are not the same thing as School Choice.

David Brooks with another winner

2008-01-12T16:45:00.000-05:00

David Brooks has another great column in the NYT. It's not specifically about Mike Huckabee, but it directly addresses the theme of Republican Party shifting that needs to occur, and is in fact happening, at least for some Republicans who get it.

He closes with a reference to the groundbreaking insight from Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam, which i have mentioned a few times. Soon to be a book, it started with an article called the Party of Sam's Club.

Here's a good excerpt from the Brooks column...

The political situation has changed, too. Republicans used to appeal to the investor class with economic policies and the working class with values, crime and welfare policies. But that formula has broken down. The workers are walking away from the G.O.P., and the only way to win them back is by listening to their economic concerns.

As a result, smart Republicans are groping for a new economic model, and as they do, Republican economic policies are shifting. The entrepreneur is no longer king. The wage-earner is king. As the presidential campaign rolls into Michigan, it’s clear that Republicans are adjusting their priorities to win back the anxious middle class.

The Republicans who are reaching toward this new model still sound very different from Democrats. They never describe American workers as victims. They never describe globalization as a remorselessly punishing process. They argue that individuals can still control their own destinies, provided they work hard and get educated. They believe it would be a catastrophe if the U.S. abandoned free trade or adopted a European-style safety net and suffered European tax rates. But they envision a different role for government than the 1980s Republicans.

Brooks outlines 4 "spheres of policy innovation" that Republicans must address to be successful.

Human capital agenda
Health care reform
Resiliency agenda
Fiscal rectitude

I had this epiphany more than a year ago after reading that Sam's Club article, and it's one of the things about the Huckabee campaign that appeals to me. If the GOP wants to build a new winning coalition, it must figure this out. Then perhaps, perhaps, the chattering class will get on board, too.

Costanza Conservatism

2008-01-12T16:09:00.001-05:00

On the sitcom Seinfeld (the greatest half-hour tv show of all time), a series of episodes centers on the concept of a sitcom within the sitcom, as Jerry is approached by NBC executives to create a pilot for a comedy tv series. Jerry's best friend George Costanza has the brilliant idea to make a "show about nothing". "Everybody's doing something; we'll do nothing." In typical Costanza style, however, he takes his gem of an idea too far when pitching it to the executives. Here's that part of the script…

GEORGE: I think I can sum up the show for you with one word: NOTHING.
RUSSELL: Nothing?
GEORGE: (Smiling) Nothing.
RUSSELL: (Unimpressed) What does that mean?
GEORGE: The show is about nothing.
JERRY: (To George) Well, it's not about nothing.
GEORGE: (To Jerry) No, it's about nothing.
JERRY: Well, maybe in philosophy. But, even nothing is something.
…
RUSSELL: All right, tell me, tell me about the stories. What kind of stories?
GEORGE: Oh, no. No stories.
RUSSELL: No stories? So, what is it?
GEORGE: (Showing an example) What'd you do today?
RUSSELL: I got up and came to work.
GEORGE: There's a show. That's a show.
RUSSELL: (Confused) How is that a show?
JERRY: Well, uh, maybe something happens on the way to work.
GEORGE: No, no, no. Nothing happens.

I feel similarly about some conservatives' view of the proper role of government, at least as judged by their criticisms of Mike Huckabee. Apparently, if you believe government should actually accomplish something, then you are no longer conservative. Rather than a philosophy of limited government, they seem to advocate no government involvement at all (except, of course, for the military). Almost a hyper-libertarianism. If you suggest, as Russell and Jerry do above, that something must happen to truly have a show worth watching, that the government should actually work for the good of the people, then the Costanza Conservatives rant that you just don't get it. No, no, no. Nothing happens.

I get it. I'm a Seinfeld Conservative. The philosophy of nothing is proper, but it is not absolute. The government should have a light footprint in our lives, but not no footprint. It should be limited, but where it exists, it should work. It should be efficient and effective. There should be recognition that some problems, beyond national defense, do lend themselves to governing solutions. Pollution, to take one example of a public-good problem. Or consider the Hurricane Katrina response.

It's easy to sit back and be grumpy, to offer the political equivalent of "hey you kids, get off of my lawn!" It takes work and effort to actually lead, to govern. And if we are to have government, it should be government that works.

More on Taxes

2008-01-11T23:42:00.000-05:00

One thing that most people either don't realize or conveniently ignore when criticizing Huckabee's record as Governor is that when he ascended to the office, he inherited a state that was broke and broken. Huckabee followed Jim Guy Tucker, who had immediately succeeded Bill Clinton. Under Clinton and Tucker, Arkansas had failed to maintain the basic infrastructure of the state. The schools were in shambles—often literally. The roads were in shambles—often literally. The money to fix these inherited problems had to come from somewhere. Raising some taxes (while lowering others) allowed the State of Arkansas to make necessary improvements to areas that are the proper province of a State Government. It's not as if he was raising the tax burden on an already over-taxed State like Massachusetts.

The truth about Taxes

2008-01-11T23:40:00.000-05:00

Share this with your friends who are buying into the hype about Governor Huckabee's tax record in Arkansas.

Contributions

2008-01-10T23:23:00.000-05:00

I just made my second contribution to the Huckabee campaign. I encourage all of our readers to make one, too. The $1,000,000 goal was already met today, but don't wait. When I click oso's Ranger link, it doesn't automatically include his donor code on the donation page, so if it doesn't for you, make sure you add Donor Code r69.

I'd like oso to update us with his current fundraising total. I'm curious if he's close to his $5000 goal.

Iowa vs. New Hampshire

2008-01-10T21:16:00.001-05:00

Well, Huckabee got the targeted 3^rd place in New Hampshire, although he fell short of the 16% mark that i set as a goal. That's still good, particularly when you consider his polling position at the beginning of December, when Huckabee was, at best, in 5^th place.

Less encouraging is a review of the exit poll data. Huckabee did not make much, if any, headway expanding his voting bloc beyond church-going social conservatives. The only segments he led in were (a) folks who attend church more than once a week (a NH segment representing only 9% of GOP primary voters), and (b) those self-identified as born-agains or evangelicals. And in that 2^nd group, which were only 23% of the NH GOP voters, Huckabee only pulled 28%, tied with McCain, and only a shade ahead of Romney (27%).

This has to change. I don't profess to be so smart to advise the campaign how to do it. I'll leave that to the pros. And maybe it's just that New Hampshire was better suited to the top 2 finishers. After all, in Iowa, Huckabee had the top showing amongst almost all demographics, though without crosstabs, i cannot analyze if the Huckappeal extended beyond born-agains in any of the subsegments, or if that's just a case of the born-agains dominating the electoral landscape there.

One thing worth noting is that Iowa is more representative (than is New Hampshire) of what the rest of the GOP primaries will look like. In Iowa, 60% of the GOP voters were self-identified as either evangelicals or born-agains. In New Hampshire, that same figure was only 23%, as i noted above. But, as i pointed out a few days ago, Barna Research finds that fully 45% of Americans self-identify as born-again. And given that that group skews toward the GOP, it is fair to conclude that over half of GOP voters are born-again. Therefore, Iowa's 60% is more "normal" than is New Hampshire's 23%.

Issue: Spending

2008-01-08T01:03:00.000-05:00

In one of the debates this weekend, Fred Thompson used the term "revenue neutral" to talk about any changes in the tax system. Why are Conservatives worried about being "revenue neutral"? It seems to me that Conservatives should be willing to support a tax plan that brings in fewer dollars because they foresee reducing the amount that our Federal Government is spending.

I just did a quick hit of all five of the major Republican Candidates' websites. The only candidate who actually proposes specific reductions of current levels of Federal Government spending is Rudy Giuliani. McCain and Thompson make broad claims about removing earmarks and increasing transparency. Thompson says we need to reduce wasteful spending but doesn't make any specific proposals. Mitt Romney's plan is merely to slow the rate of growth for spending.

Governor Huckabee talks about ensuring balanced budgets by giving the President a line-item veto. That's something of a start, and it is a point shared with Giuliani and Romney. This is an area where our favorite candidate could strengthen his position and perhaps allay some of the fears of the traditional fiscal conservatives.

Governor Huckabee's tax plan is unquestionably the most conservative, but he needs to back it up with a concrete plan to reduce spending. This is an area where Governor Huckabee could gain some traction, but he has to be willing and able to spell out the cuts that can and should be made.

Huck!

2008-01-07T21:23:00.000-05:00

Two young Huckabee supporters, with keen musical talent, have created 3 cool videos, taking familiar songs and tuning them to the key of Huckabee. This is the 2nd one created and my favorite of the 3 - Huck!

And the most recent one, released after the Iowa victory, melds Green Day with Oasis. (Link to their original video - Breakfast at Huckabee's)

Maybe
He's gonna be the one to change things
And as for me
I'm voting Huckabee

Predict the NH Primary Results

2008-01-07T19:53:00.000-05:00

Think you got these campaigns figured out? Are you the best at reading the political tea leaves? Prove it at Politico's Kingmaker, where you get to predict the vote percentages of each candidate in each primary or caucus. Earn up to 200 points per prediction (if you're really confident - and right, of course).

Huckabee fans can join one of two Huckabee related pools. There's one called "Team Huckabee '08" and i created one called "Huck's Army". I didn't have any luck trying to search through the pools using text strings, so you may have to scroll through the lists (or hopefully the links will work). The password for the Huck's Army one is hope.

To get in for New Hampshire, you'll need to get your picks in before midnight tonight (ET). Best of luck!

The FoxNews Debate

2008-01-06T21:50:00.000-05:00

Governor Huckabee didn't seem to do himself much good in tonight's debate, but I think he didn't hurt himself too badly, either. The focus group on FoxNews seemed to think that he waffled on the first question. I wish he had been a bit more forceful and flipped Romney's contention that he had to raise fees to maintain services, but I didn't see Huckabee as waffling too much.

One woman said about Romney, "He speaks off the cuff and is very, very well-versed." I don't think she even understood that her statement was internally contradictory.

The best hope for New Hampshire is a third place finish, and currently the Governor is consistently polling in third. It will also help if McCain can hold off Romney.

Goal for NH

2008-01-06T17:27:00.000-05:00

The New Hampshire primary offers a total of only 12 delegates, after the GOP punished the early states for going too early, and halving their delegate counts. Those dozen delegates are apportioned based on the direct vote totals in the primary, although there is a 10% threshold in place before you can get any delegates. If you fall below this 10%, even if you get 9.9% of the vote, you get nothing.

So if we go by the Real Clear Politics poll averages for NH, we find that only 3 candidates are polling in double-digits. John McCain leads the way with 32.7%, ahead of Mitt Romney at 28.1%, and Mike Huckabee at 11.4%. If the actual vote matches those averages, both McCain and Romney would get 5 delegates, and Huckabee would get 2.

For Huckabee to get 3 delegates, he would need about 16% of the vote. So let's make that our goal: 16% and 3 delegates. A solid 3rd place.

Alt scenarios... if bychance, Giuliani or Paul get up to 10% and steal a delegate, they would take it from Romney (again, presuming the vote matches the polls). If both get to 10%, that would take away a delegate both from Romney and Huckabee. To get that delegate back, Mike would need to jump only a smidge, from the 11.4% of the polls to 12%.

Do 1 or 2 delegates matter all that much? No, probably not. For my money, i would expend just enough effort in NH to get that 3rd place and at least 2 delegates, to keep the momentum alive, and focus more time on Michigan and Florida.

P.S. Did you realize that Romney picked up more delegates in Wyoming (8) than he did in Iowa (7)?

Vote For, Not Against

2008-01-06T14:02:00.000-05:00

NOTE: Originally posted December 12, 2007, on my personal blog.

One of the main reasons I finally decided to support Mike Huckabee for President in 2008 is that I like the prospect of voting for somebody rather than against someone else. In 2004, I noted to anyone who would listen that John Kerry wouldn't beat Bush because it is too tough to rally people long-term in voting against somebody. The Democrats kept talking about how much they hated Bush, and they tried to turn out the vote with an anti-Bush message rather than a pro-Kerry one.

I feared that 2008 would be a mirror image. Only this time, it would be Republicans trying to GOTV with appeals to the scariness of Hillary Clinton (and make no mistake about it, she is plenty scary). This strategy is a loser. It's also why I never jumped on the electability bandwagon. In the Republican race so far, "electability" has most often been defined as "somebody who can beat Hillary." Yes, several people would be inspired to come out to vote against Hillary, but firming up that support is much easier if the Republican is someone the people want to vote for.

Mike Huckabee is the kind of candidate that many people will want to vote for, even if they don't agree with him on every issue. I've only voted "against" somebody once in my life. That was in 1996. I wasn't particularly thrilled with Bob Dole, but I knew he was preferable to Bill Clinton.

I'm excited to have a candidate I can vote for in 2008.

No Stranger to Dark Horses

2008-01-06T13:57:00.000-05:00

NOTE: Originally posted December 11, 2007, on my personal blog.

My "late to the party" support of Mike Huckabee for President in 2008 isn't the first time I've latched onto a so-called Dark Horse Candidate. In 1996, I made my first ever political contribution to Alan Keyes. I even drove from Waco to Denton to hear him speak in person. Maybe it was that Quixotic support that cause me to hold back so long on Huckabee. I didn't want to pick a candidate with absolutely no shot at getting the nomination. Now, as I examine the polls, I think there's good reason to think that this race has become Huckabee's to lose.

First, the attacks aren't sticking. Reagan was called the Teflon President. Huckabee may very well be 2008's Teflon Candidate.

Second, Fred Thompson has to drop out sooner or later. I'd prefer it be before South Carolina, but even if he waits until after South Carolina, as long as he exits before February 5th, this can only help Huckabee. There's no way to know for sure, but once Thompson drops out, the most logical place for his supporters to go is to Huckabee. Except, if McCain is still in the race, Thompson might endorse McCain.

Third, except for Thompson, there's really no other viable choice for conservative Christians. I'm not knocking my friends who have chosen for various reasons to support Giuliani, but I just don't buy the "Rudy is the only one who can beat Hillary" argument. Duncan Hunter may be a fine man and would likely be a good President, but barring some sort of miracle, he's dead. Maybe he'll realize it after Iowa and New Hampshire.

Thanks

2008-01-06T13:49:00.000-05:00

I'll start my participation here with a thanks to my brother. Thanks for inviting me to join him here, but more importantly, thanks for getting me to take a second look at Mike Huckabee. My contributions will likely be a bit more "shoot from the hip" than the analytical nature of the Devil Bear's. After all, he's the one with the MBA. Another difference in our posts will be that I still capitalize the first-person personal pronoun.

I will probably repost a couple of the entries from my personal blog then get going with new material. I plan to follow Governor Huckabee's example of being positive, and I will try to resist the urge to point out the deficiencies of his opponents.

Adding a 2nd Author

2008-01-06T10:03:00.001-05:00

I'm pleased to announce that Huck the System will be adding a second author soon. My brother is now on board. We're a little older than the famed Harris brothers, and we're not twins (although we do share a birthday - the same birthday, incidentally, as Mike Huckabee), but we do share a desire for Mike Huckabee to be the next President of the United States.

My brother is the first person i talked to about Huckabee, not counting blog posts. Back in the summer, late June i think, we were at a nephew's wedding rehearsal dinner, and i broached the subject of the election. My younger brother is way more into politics than i am, and so i was interested in his thoughts. I say, "so, i'm surprised that you haven't made any comments on my blog posts about Mike Huckabee." He's ambivalent at best, expressing a concern about Mike being a "nanny-stater" because of the news at the time about his views on smoking. I tell him that he's just gonna have to decide which "deficiency" he can most live with.

Fast forward a couple of months. On his regular blog, i notice that my brother has come around, and is now supporting Huckabee. Bandwagoner, i call him (you know how brothers are). Then i decided to invite him to write here with me. He's a very smart guy (National Merit finalist and all that, two advanced degrees), a devoted family man, a strong Christian, and someone whom i expect to have some interesting insights on Mike Huckabee and this campaign.

My Own Two Hands

2008-01-05T16:25:00.000-05:00

I love this Huckabee-supporter-created video featuring the song My Own Two Hands by Ben Harper and Jack Johnson. As the supporter asks on the youtube page...

What can we imagine if we all took the time to live in harmony with the world and people around us? What would the world be like if we had a president who lived by that philosophy?

Let's all make use of our own two hands, using all the gifts God gave us, to make this world a better place. To quote Henry Van Dyke: "Use what talent you possess - the woods would be very silent if no birds sang except those that sang best."

Post-Iowa Viewpoints

2008-01-05T15:49:00.000-05:00

Some of the better or more interesting commentary i ran across about Huckabee's victory in Iowa.

Joshua Trevino has some very good advice for the Huckabee team.
K Street Mole talks about the Medved and Brooks articles
One Mom - media gets it wrong
The Dunn Report - this site is new to me; has a nice review of Mike's "Seven Hopes"
David Brooks with Two Earthquakes - too good not to link directly
The 7-10 digests the GOP results

And i'll close with the video of Mike's outstanding victory speech.

#1 and still underrated

2008-01-05T15:27:00.001-05:00

What an exciting week! Congratulations to the Mike Huckabee campaign for their resounding victory in the Iowa caucus on Thursday night. Huckabee polled over 40,000 votes for 34.4%, well above 2nd-place Mitt Romney, who got fewer than 30,000 votes, or 25.2%. The table below shows how the candidates ranked in each county. Mike finished first or second in 98 of the 99 counties.

Rank	Huckabee	Romney	Thompson	McCain	Paul	Giuliani	Hunter	Tancredo
1	74	24	0	0	1	0	0	0
2	24	53	11	7	4	0	0	0
3	1	20	50	18	12	0	0	0
4	0	1	26	52	23	0	0	0
5	0	1	12	22	58	1	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	1	93	9	0
7	0	0	0	0	0	5	89	21
8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	78
avg	1.3	2.0	3.4	3.9	4.4	6.0	6.9	7.8

And looking at the entrance poll numbers, we find that Huckabee finished first among…

Women (40%) and Men (29)
All Age groups
- Ages 17-29 (40)
- Ages 30-44 (39)
- Ages 45-64 (31)
- Ages 65+ (30)
Those who decided in the last month or before
Those who decided on caucus day
Those who strongly favor their candidate
No matter the choice for the most important problem facing the country
- Illegal immigration
- War in Iraq
- The economy
- Terrorism
Republicans (as opposed to a small group of self-identified independents, who went for Paul)
Self-described as "very conservative"
Self-described as "conservative"
All views of the Bush administration except for "angry" (from "enthusiastic" to "dissatisfied")
Family incomes below $100,000 (Romney nudged ahead on the rich folks)
Suburbanites, small towners, and country folk
Central Iowa, East Iowa, and West Iowa (all 3 regions)

Much has already been made about the evangelical vote. Fully 60% of GOP caucus goers described themselves as evangelical or born-again, and they went heavily for Huckabee, as expected. Some pundits are pooh-poohing the Iowa victory on the idea that other states don't have as many born-agains. But Barna Research consistently finds that 35-45% of American adults can be classified as born-again. Based on self-descriptions, like the Iowa polls, Barna finds that 45% call themselves born-again. Splitting that into the two major parties, Barna estimates that 51% of Republicans are born-again. Evangelicals trend GOP by a 59-16 margin. So it's not a stretch by any means that other states would trend similarly to Iowa in their GOP primaries. For example, South Carolina is decidedly more evangelical than is Iowa.

I do agree with the observation that Huckabee must deepen his appeal to non-evangelicals, and i'm confident that he can do just that. His platform of seeking energy independence, of significant pro-growth tax reform, of meaningful immigration reform, of novel education ideas like promoting arts & music education, of a focus on preventative health care, of understanding the nature of our fight against Islamic extremists, of defense of 2^nd Amendment rights – all these are coalition-building issues that go well beyond religious affiliation. Even more, Huckabee's outstanding ability to communicate, to connect with average Americans transcends religion.

Huckabee Does Not Exist

2007-12-30T11:03:00.001-05:00

Mike Huckabee does not exist. It's just not possible. At least not the version presented to us by his detractors.

We are to believe that Mike is, at once, both Bill Clinton and Pat Robertson. He is a knuckle-dragging caveman and a hillbilly in one breath, and a Rovian genius, churning out brilliant ads choked with subliminal message for true believers only, in the next breath. He is Pat Buchanan and John Edwards. He's Jimmy Carter & Jerry Falwell. He is left of Dennis Kucinich and right of Jesse Helms.

It's dizzying.

There's an old adage in both politics and journalism that if you're being attacked from both sides, you must be doing something right. FDR also supposedly was quoted along those lines back in the mid-30s, right before he went out and won another term with over 60% of the popular vote, and a landslide % of the electoral college (97%), losing only 2 states (Maine & Vermont).

I'm also reminded of a 70s rock tune "Stuck in the Middle With You" by Stealers Wheel. (And not because someone's gonna get their ear cut off, a la Reservoir Dogs, a movie I haven't seen.) I amended the lyrics for Huck…

Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am
Huck in the middle with you

It's time for a re-read of The Party of Sam's Club. It's time for a Grand New Party. Or just understanding the party we already have. The coalitions that already exist. So even if a pundit-created Mike Huckabee does not exist, the real Mike Huckabee does, and he best fits with where America is today.

Counting the Delegates

2007-12-27T21:49:00.001-05:00

I've been analyzing the caucus and primary schedule through February 5^th, the so-called Super Tuesday, attempting to apportion the GOP delegates. If my math and sources are correct, there are just over 1300 delegates available in the 29 states. Most pundits and prognosticators talk about who's going to "win" a given state, but what goes unsaid is that delegates in most states are assigned proportionally. Most states are not winner-take-all. I suspect most of the winning talk is geared around the notion of momentum. In a normal year, momentum is pretty important, and it won't be without merit this year, but do not expect a coalescing around a single candidate. This thing is going to remain fractured, with at least 2 viable candidates going into the convention. That hasn't happened in so long that most observers dismiss it out of hand, but when you count up the delegates, it's hard to see it any other way.

If a state is not winner-take-all, it will generally apportion its delegates by primary vote portions, statewide and/or by congressional district. A few have thresholds, where a candidate needs to break a certain barrier (say, 10% or 20%) to get any delegates. The WTA states are (with delegate counts): New York (101), Connecticut (30), Delaware (18), Arizona (53), Utah (36), and Missouri (58). Besides the home-state wins in NY/AZ/UT (I'm counting Utah as a home state for Romney), I predict that Rudy Giuliani will take CT (solid) and DE (iffy) and that Mike Huckabee will take Missouri. (On further research, it appears that some other states have changed their rules to be WTA. I updated the delegate table below, but not this paragraph.)

Another aspect to keep in mind is that the GOP has awarded bonus delegates to states with Republican governors, senators, and further representation. That gives a boost to the delegate counts in Southern states, a strength for Huckabee. And the GOP has penalized those states holding primaries before Feb 5^th, impacting Michigan, New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Carolina, and Florida. Those states will have their delegate counts cut IN HALF.

Here's how I see the rest of the first 29 states going. I have a detailed spreadsheet backing this up, but I'm not going to post it all. So I'll follow convention and list my predicted winners. And by winners, I mean the candidate that I expect to receive the most delegates from a given state.

Candidate	# States Won	List of States Won
Mike Huckabee	10	IA, SC, AL, AR, GA, MO, MT, ND, OK, WV
Rudy Giuliani	7	FL, CA, CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Mitt Romney	6	MI, NV, ME, CO, UT, MA
John McCain	4	NH, WY, AZ, MN
Fred Thompson	1	TN
Ron Paul	1 (throwing a bone)	AK

And here are my projected delegate counts through Feb 5^th, not including the national superdelegates.

Candidate	# Delegates
Mike Huckabee	423
Rudy Giuliani	359
Mitt Romney	194
John McCain	205
Ron Paul (and others)	73
Fred Thompson	59

I'll check back after Iowa & New Hampshire to take a look at the post-Feb 5^th primaries. Will we get more clarity by then? Well, if my prognostications are close to correct, Fred Thompson will not be in the race by mid-February, and I believe he'll endorse fellow Senator John McCain. Mitt Romney will have a difficult decision to make. Does he continue spending his fortune when he may be in 4^th place? If we are truly heading to a fractured convention, then he might be smart to stay in the race, and position himself as a compromise candidate (a tough sell given his incessant attacks on Huckabee and McCain, and the notion by then that McCain is the better compromise candidate).

In fact, I'll go on the record right now that the GOP candidate will be either Mike Huckabee (on the 2^nd ballot) or John McCain (on a later ballot after intense backroom wrangling, and with Huckabee as his VP). Wow.

The Real Reason BK Discontinued the Whopper

2007-12-26T17:10:00.000-05:00

You may have the seen the humorous and clever marketing campaign from Burger King called the Whopper Freakout, using the prank that their signature entree, the Whopper burger, has been discontinued. Here at HTS, we have discovered the real reason why BK cannot make the Whopper anymore - Mitt Romney has cornered the market on whoppers, and there are no more to be had.

WaPo weighs in with Four Pinocchios
Battleground Iowa's take

The Dangers of the FairTax Platform

2007-12-26T14:45:00.001-05:00

This is not about the merits of the FairTax itself, but about whether Mike Huckabee will be helped or not by his advocacy of the radical tax plan to replace most all current taxes with a national sales tax. I believe it is a dangerous, risky stance for Mike. Here's why…

While not nearly as complicated as I expected it to be, the FairTax is such a radical change in our tax policy that the average voter will not immediately grasp what it's about. Even some should-know-better reporters are spouting falsehoods about it. To the extent that it is reducible to a soundbite, it is much more likely for that soundbite to be a negative one used by opponents of Huckabee and/or the FairTax.
Continuing that point, detractors will make no effort to fairly portray the plan, even if they do understand that. We already see the merging of these 2 points with media assertions that the plan is overly regressive and, most damaging, that it will cause prices to rise by over 20%. Neither is actually true, and the latter charge is not even close to being true.
The point about illegal immigrants and under-the-table earners now paying their fair share is a rhetorical winner, but it can be intellectually challenged by the expectation that a new underground economy would arise. The blackest of black markets.
Given the criticism of Mike thus far about his record in Arkansas with taxes, and the skepticism by hardcore fiscal conservatives that he is bona fide, the FairTax is especially problematic for him. Given the first 2 points about confusion and obfuscation, voters, unable to sort it all out with facts, unsure whom to believe, might use the FairTax as a sign that Mike's opponents are correct. It does require a huge outlay of federal funds with its prebate (what makes it not regressive). Of course, the prebate is essentially a refund of taxes paid, so financially for the government it is not an outlay, but a wash. Will voters take the time and effort to figure that out, or will they be hoodwinked by devious ads and mailers saying "see, we told you this guy was a big-government conservative. See how much money he wants to spend."?
Likewise, detractors will deviously assert that the FairTax is a big tax hike. "See, we told you this guy was Tax Hike Mike. He wants you to pay 23% more for your groceries. Will you even be able to afford that next new car?" In a soundbite world, can you make voters understand that CURRENT prices already reflect the cost of taxes, and that the FairTax wouldn't cause prices to rise materially, if at all?

Keywords: Take Control & Keep It Simple

The best pithy argument for the FairTax is not the abolishment of the IRS (even though that is a catchy line), but about Americans being more in control, and about making taxes simpler to understand. Fiscal conservatives talk about "starving the beast" of government, but how do you do that with an income tax (not to mention all those other federal taxes)? For most of us, we can't just stop making an income, so we have to keep feeding the beast. Sure, we can seek out tax shelters and such, but generally speaking those are marginal effects, and so the beast gets fed. With a sales tax, effectively kicking in above and beyond basic needs, taxpayers do have more control over how much food to put in the bowl, by way of discretionary spending. Of course, there are macro-economic impacts to those spending decisions which should not be ignored, but I would argue that for the most part, these would be purchases delayed, not purchases avoided altogether.

How would that work? Well, it might not work, given how hard it is for the federal government to pay attention to us. But you do what you can, and if you don't like the way the government is operating, or disagree profoundly with how it spends its money, you can "vote with your wallet". A drop in the ocean, it may feel like, but no less important than your single vote among millions. Even if there is no direct impact or benefit, there would still be a psychological or symbolic benefit for taxpayers. In short, a sales tax is more in line with the precepts of "of the people, by the people" than is the income tax.

Mike should also hammer away at the idea of making taxes simpler. You shouldn't need a CPA to understand how your government is funded. The current system is so complex that even the experts can't figure it out. Such a setup fosters discord and distrust that weasels will not pay their fair share. It breeds anxiety that the taxpayer is a sucker unless he ponies up for expert help.

Both of these rhetorical approaches connect at the point of governmental transparency, a big hot button for young voters. And so while the FairTax platform for Huckabee presents some difficult challenges, it also affords an opportunity to connect with voters if handled correctly. Governor Huckabee has demonstrated an ability to lead and persuade on issues important to him, and I have confidence in him on this subject, despite its risk.

Hometown Paper Comes Through

2007-12-23T18:32:00.000-05:00

Growing up in Dallas, the premier (and only surviving) newspaper was the Dallas Morning News. Today, they endorsed Mike Huckabee for the GOP nomination for President. It's a nice write-up, with a great conclusion:

Plain-spoken and eloquent, Mr. Huckabee strikes us as decent, principled and empathetic to the views and concerns of others – an antidote to the power-mad partisanship that has led U.S. politics to a dispiriting standstill.

"I'm a conservative," he likes to say. "I'm just not mad about it." Along those lines, what sold us on Mr. Huckabee is a sense that of all the Republicans, he is the change agent the nation most needs...

America needs a clean break from the bitter politics of the recent past. From the right, Mike Huckabee, a progressive conservative with a pastor's heart, can deliver.

Audacious!

2007-12-23T07:02:00.001-05:00

It was the most audacious event in world history. God, creator of the universe, comes to earth in the form of one of his loftiest creations. Entering the world in the shared and natural humility of childbirth. God as man, with a wrinkled crying face, a crown of mussed hair topping a misshapen head, robed in delivery goo. It was the coming of Christ.

We now celebrate this audacious event with our culture's most involved holiday which we call Christmas. The coming of Christ. The gathering of Christ. As Irenaeus put it almost 2000 years ago, "God became man so that we could become divine." (Irenaeus also said one of my all-time favorite quotes: "The glory of God is man fully alive.")

I like how this one blogger put it.

Christmas is a celebration of three comings of Christ. First, we celebrate the historical coming of Christ. The readings in the Church proclaim the story of Jesus' birth to a young virgin. We are reminded of his lineage, the conditions of his birth in the poverty of a manger, the angelic proclamation to the shepherds, his presentation at the temple, and the visit of the three wise men. The stories are told in the opening chapters of the gospels of Matthew and Luke for those who would like to read the narratives on their own.

Second, we celebrate the presence of Christ come among us today. Christians believe that the Spirit of God is always active in the world, gently guiding us and prodding us toward conversion. Nothing happens without a reason. There is not a stray molecule anywhere in the universe. Christmas is a celebration of God coming among us today! The Church often uses sacraments and symbols as signs of grace, and people are often aware of the power of the Spirit present in these activities. However, God's grace surrounds us all the time. Christmas celebrates God’s coming into our everyday lives - our work, our family, and our friendships.

Third, we celebrate the hope for the day when Christ will come in glory to gather the saints. One day, all who are being saved will be with the Lord in paradise. Whether we come to the Lord through natural death, or whether the Lord will come to us at the end of the world, Christians look forward to eternity with God. This will be our greatest happiness! As children anxiously await the arrival of Santa Claus, the Christian waits in joyful hope for eternity with our God!

Huckabee

So what does all this have to do with Mike Huckabee? Well, Mike had the human audacity to actually mention Christ when speaking of Christmas, as he attempted to set politics aside during the Christmas season, in a Christmas card ad that is all the buzz.

Now a Ranger

2007-12-19T12:38:00.000-05:00

I finally got my activation code from the Huckabee campaign to become a "Huckabee Ranger". This means i am a dedicated and passionate supporter pledged to help raise funds.

Consider any contribution as an investment in a better future for America. Let's not let power entrench in only the self-appointed elites, the big media, mega-wealthy backroom dealers, cash-burning lobbyists. To steal an old slogan, Power to the People!

You can find my Ranger link on the top right. Or click here.

Let's do this thing. Mitt & Rudy have their wall street cronies. Fred & John have their Capitol Hill connections. Hillary & Barack & the other John all have their hollywood pals. Huckabee has and needs you, the everyday Americans. The folks who, in the words of George Bailey (from my favorite movie of all time), "do most of the working and paying and living and dying in this community."

Don't sit back and expect someone else to do it for you. It's time for you to get in the ring and fight. I close with the words of Edward Everett Hale, former chaplain of the US Senate:

I am only one, but I am one. I can't do everything, but I can do something. The something I ought to do, I can do. And by the grace of God, I will.

Right Smart - Excellent Blogger

2007-12-19T11:39:00.001-05:00

I really like what J. Ritterbush is doing over at Right Smart. In fact, he's so good, and so prolific, that i despair of what else there is to say. Right Smart is especially good at looking into Mitt Romney's campaign tactics and past record.

He covers everything so well and so quickly. I link a lot of blogs over there on the right, but this may be the only one worth checking out on a daily basis.

Not (Merely) Republican or Democrat, But American

2007-12-16T11:22:00.001-05:00

Underscoring my point from Friday, Rick Scarborough presents this anecdote about the support of Mike Huckabee.

This week an activist in Iowa made an interesting comment to me about the Mike Huckabee phenomena. While the Romney campaign has spent millions in Iowa to attract voters, the Huckabee campaign has aired few commercials because, until recently, they couldn’t afford a full campaign staff--let alone spend money on media buys. Yet Romney is falling like a rock in the polls and Huckabee’s numbers are soaring. This long time activist in Iowa politics said of Huckabee that rank and file people of both parties in her state are attracted to him because he is neither Republican nor Democrat, but American.

As I pondered her statement I thought, how refreshing, and perhaps how insightful. Huckabee has rankled the ire of many traditional conservatives with his unorthodox politics; while being unapologetic about his traditional social views, he challenges some of the conservative conclusions with many of his views regarding taxes, immigration and education. That mix usually spells disaster among Republicans yet he is leading the pack at present.

There are many speculative reasons offered for why he holds those views, but my friend’s comment that he is American resonates with me. Could it be that people are drawn to him because in him they see a genuine, authentic American, who embraces biblical truth and is attempting, in his humanity, to apply it to public policy? No one will ever get it completely right, and Huckabee won’t, but people like the fact that he is trying and not affected by the attacks from both the left and the right. And I believe that true Americans like the fact that in his campaign, “they,” not the handlers, nor the money people, nor the media, nor the political hacks, are driving his candidacy. His campaign has lacked money but it has generated what millions cannot buy--true believers.

Well said. That's how we Huck the system.

A Leader of All

2007-12-14T15:57:00.000-05:00

Despite the punditocracy attempt to marginalize Mike Huckabee as a single constituency candidate, as merely a pastor catering to evangelicals, the governor takes a higher road and seeks to serve all Americans, as he has stated time and time again. He champions "vertical politics", as witnessed in an answer to one of the questions at the most recent Iowa debate.

It's a resonating message. To wit, in the latest Newsweek Iowa poll, Governor Huckabee draws as much support from non-evangelicals as does Mitt Romney, with the two governors tied for the lead among that group with 24% a piece. If you still think this is Pat Robertson redux, you will be surprised, as you have been until now.

Apologies: A Study in Contrast

2007-12-14T14:29:00.000-05:00

This has been the week of apologies in the presidential races. In one example, Hillary Clinton apologized to Obama for the comments of one of her (since resigned) top staffers, who brought up Obama's drug usage.

But let's take a look at two apologies (and i use the term loosely, as you shall see) - one from Mike Huckabee, and then one from Fred Thompson.

First, Governor Huckabee personally apologized to Mitt Romney for the way his question about Mormon beliefs, as posed to a NYT reporter, had been misconstrued and blown up by the media into a big to-do. You can hear the governor discuss it in this interview on Morning Joe, about 4 minutes into the video.

That's how an honorable man does it, how a leader handles things. By all accounts, Romney was gracious and accepted the apology, as both governors hoped to move on.

Contrast that with this "apology" from Fred Thompson. An excerpt:

"We apologize for telling reporters that a BA in Biblical Studies from Ouachita Baptist University doesn’t, in fact, make Huckabee more qualified to fight the war on terror than say…Fred Thompson."

Besides being quite rude, this missive fails not only on the humor meter, but also on the truth meter. It is the typical sort of politics that turns off so many Americans. Throw out a bunch of half-truths and spin, and hope your voters aren't smart enough to see through it. It is not the best of America. We can do better.

At the youtube debate, when each candidate was permitted to air their own 30-second ads, only Fred Thompson went negative. I immediately thought, "this is the end of the Fred Thompson campaign." And repeated polls confirm that Fred is falling more out of favor every day.

In Iowa, Fred polls in the single-digits, and i predict he'll curry fewer delegates there than does Ron Paul, of all people.
In New Hampshire, Fred is polling at HALF the level of gadfly Paul.
He's in single-digits in Michigan.
He lost the lead in South Carolina, and is closer to 6th place than to first place.
Huckabee outpolls Fred by 3-1 in Nevada.
Fred is in single digits in Florida, where Huckabee just pulled into the lead over Giuliani.
In fact, if you look at all the posted December polls at Real Clear Politics, you cannot find a single one, nationwide or for any single state, where Thompson is favored over Huckabee.

It seems clear to me that the people have weighed the two men, and have made their choice. One guy is positive; the other is nothing but snarky and negative. In my experience, in a contest like this, people turn negative about others when they can't think of anything positive to say about themselves.

Must-Read Blogger

2007-12-12T19:44:00.000-05:00

Many of the Huckabee focused blogs, while well intentioned, are little more than echos of the main site, merely cut/pasting stories. Shadow sites, essentially. That's cool. And some are self-admitted cheerleader blogs. That's cool, too. I do that here from time to time.

But i do wish more Huckabee bloggers would craft original pieces. Do some analysis. Tie broad policy positions to their unique life situations. Tell us a story. Something new and different.

One blogger that is doing a great job with that is Joshua Trevino. I would direct everyone to his posts from today (12/12) and yesterday (12/11), defending Governor Huckabee on his 1992 AIDS isolation comments and on his foreign policy experience, respectively. He expertly takes mainstream conservative media (Wall St. Journal and National Review) to task over slipshod reporting on these two topics.

These are must-read entries. And Mr. Trevino goes on the blogroll.

New Huckabee Ad

2007-12-09T22:57:00.001-05:00

I love this ad. It's my favorite one yet. I wish it had been ready for the Youtube debate, and we could have avoided all this distraction over the use of the label "Christian Leader".

What i like best about this one is that it highlights the "competency" leg of my 3-legged presidential stool.

Tribute to Henry Hyde

2007-12-09T22:22:00.000-05:00

We take a break today from our regularly scheduled blogging to pay tribute to a great American, Henry Hyde. Mr. Hyde served in Congress, representing Illinois for over 30 years. He recently was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom, America's highest honor for civilians. The citation noted:

A veteran, a lawyer, and a public servant, Henry Hyde has served his country with honor and dedication. During his 32-year career in the House of Representatives, he was a powerful defender of life, a leading advocate for a strong national defense, and an unwavering voice for liberty, democracy, and free enterprise around the world. A true gentleman of the House, he advanced his principles without rancor and earned the respect of friends and adversaries alike. The United States honors Henry Hyde for his distinguished record of service to America.

He is best known to me as a champion of pro-life causes, most notably as the author of the Hyde Amendment, which halted federal funding of abortions and abortion advocacy groups, both in the US and around the world.

His approach and demeanor for congressional politics fits in well with our theme here at Huck The System. True political leadership is about making the country better, not consolidating your power and position. Consider this comment in Rich Lowry's column about Hyde:

He once told incoming congressmen, in the political axiom he lived by, that they "need to be at least as clear on the reasons why they would risk losing as they are on the reasons why they wanted to come here in the first place."

Here's a nice video of fellow congressmen & women paying tribute to Hyde. Note the bipartisanship.

Other good youtube links:
More tribute
Series of videos from fellow representatives

Video of the Day: Anderson Cooper

2007-12-07T19:42:00.000-05:00

That guy driving the SUV is Drake, whom we met last night. He's a recent graduate of Wake Forest. He's also the guy that got shoved aside and to the floor by a reporter after a recent debate.

Quite the gig he's drawn.

Meet the Huckabees

2007-12-07T00:39:00.001-05:00

Well, we're back from the Huckabee reception. It was a great night.

The Scene

The fundraiser reception was held in a private home (I don't know whose) in a very nice part of Greensboro. I had been hoping to get there early, but babysitter troubles (Caroline had swim practice) and heavy traffic (have you ever seen a clog because drivers are slowing down to read one of those big message signs over the roadway? That's what happened on the way through downtown Winston, as the sign flashed info about a "fugitive alert") conspired to slow us down, and so we arrived just at 6pm, the scheduled start time. So, I missed the media pow-wow.

We found a (illegal?) parking space a block behind the house, and walked past the media trucks and what we first thought were placard-waving protesters, but they turned out to be supporters of the FairTax. Around to the front lawn where we queue up in the frigid cold, inching forward toward the sign-in table in the home's foyer. A couple of college republican co-eds are welcoming at the front door, and I quip that I had expected to be the youngest folks there. Good to see that we weren't.

It seems we all had arrived around the same time, and so it took a while to get in the house. I wasn't sure how many to expect, but I didn't expect this many folks. We estimated about 250 people were crammed in the main floor area, like a packed-house college party, except with a bunch of old rich folks. After signing in, and paying our "entry fee", we could see Governor Huckabee and his wife Janet in the next room, having photos taken with supporters. That area was choked-full, so we snaked down the hall to enter that room by its other door. That's when we realized that we had unwittingly sidled into the photograph line.

Another long wait, and I wondered what it must be like for the Huckabees to stand there, photo after photo, with the same pose, the same nice true smiles, probably engaging in the exact same small talk. It's nice to meet you. So glad you're here. Keep up the good work. Hang in there. We're praying for you. As we get toward the front of the line, Julie overhears someone remark that you're supposed to have a star on your nametag to get a photo opportunity. We don't, but the photographer and the intern coordinating the line are both young, and so we stand out among our elders, and we are put through. I'm not sure if Julie heard correctly, but even if she did, Mike just won't say no, and they end up taking photos for a very long time.

The Moment

It's our turn! I think I was awake half of last-night thinking through what I'd say if we got to meet Mike. I wanted it to be memorable (avoid the above small talk banalities), but it had to be quick. This is what I said, after the introductions: Let me tell you the story of a young boy named Mike, who was born on August 24^th. Sound familiar? That's the start of it. There's more.

The Governor perked up and immediately said, "oh, but what year?" 1965. And then he said, "10 years different. But you know what, 1965, that's the date I was born-again." I was engaged, "really, you were born-again exactly on your 10^th birthday?" "Yep, at a vacation bible school." This exchange was face-to-face, eye-to-eye, but we soon drifted into photo poses, side-by-side.

I kept on. And I grew up in small town near the Ark-La-Tex border. Oh yeah, where was that? Terrell, Texas. Yes, I know where that is. Out on I-20. And I went to the largest Baptist college in my state. That's, what? Howard Payne, I forget. No, Baylor. Oh, yes, Baylor, sometimes I forget it's Baptist. Hey now! (yes, I did actually say that, like one frat brother to another).

That's really it, at least all I can recall with detail. We exchanged departing pleasantries, and they were on to the next group of supporters, probably with real stars on their nametags. For another small contribution, I'll be able to purchase that photo, and I will. I might even post it here. I wished later that I had mentioned that I was a Huckabee blogger, but there was no natural place to mention it in our unique exchange. Or it could be just that I froze after getting through my initial lines.

The Speech

After the photo, we finally made it to the food. Pretty much every nook was crowded with people, until we found some breathing room in the kitchen, next to the desserts (of course). Then, we wanted to get back into the open corner of the photo room, where everything was happening, and where I expected Mike to be when he started talking. But we couldn't get through the door without appearing forceful or rude, so we drifted into another open room. It was there that I ran into a guy I had targeted to meet, after researching the bios of the various hosts and sponsors. He had an interesting background, and so I engaged him in conversation about his work, about his writings, about energy independence & the FairTax. Then we heard the applause, so I darted into the hall to get a good spot to hear Mike. He was stationed at the front door in the foyer, and we couldn't get within 10 yards of him, and were stuck in that hall. Fortunately, though, the acoustics were perfectly suited in that hall, and so we could hear it all clearly.

Mike was introduced by an older man whom I couldn't see, but we believe it was Bill Cobey. He called Mike a man of courage, intellect, a true leader, a man of God. Mike opened by saying that it was Bill Cobey who kept encouraging him to run for President, way back before anyone else was thinking that, and thus how all this pretty much started with North Carolina. Most of his subsequent remarks were standard stump speech material that I've heard many times (since I pretty much devour all I can about Huckabee). The lava soap anecdote, etc. Which is not to suggest in any way that it was boring or mundane. The guy is a phenomenal speaker. There's not an ounce of slick in how he comes across. He just takes the floor and weaves through these long paragraphs of passion for America, and what we can do to make it a better country. I almost teared up when he spoke of the signers of the Declaration of Independence. We laughed, we cheered, there were lots of head-nods.

I couldn't do justice to his comments, based merely on my memory. I spent most of the time watching the crowd, looking for signs of resonance. The biggest applause lines were/for:

"I know how to and did defeat the Bill & Hillary Clinton political machine. 4 times!"
The FairTax (this one surprised me, especially among a crowd that is mostly in post-income years – this thing must really be catching on)
Energy independence (good, this is a big one for me too)

Anyone who thinks the Huckabee campaign is merely about Christian conservatives is really missing the boat, and will continue to underestimate Mike.

Meeting the Governor

2007-12-06T08:22:00.001-05:00

My wife and i were grateful to receive an invitation to the Governor Huckabee reception and fundraiser tonight in Greensboro. Hopefully, we'll get to meet Mike. Will report back later, though it may be tomorrow.

Video of the Day: Nightline

2007-12-05T21:45:00.000-05:00

don't miss my other posts below from earlier today, but here is a good clip on Huckabee from the Nightline news show...

First Place in North Carolina (and the nation)!

2007-12-05T20:00:00.000-05:00

The Huckabee surge in the polls has been nothing short of amazing, even for this longtime supporter. The slow & steady climb hit a tipping point in the past few days, and the groundswell shows in recent polls.

In North Carolina, Huckabee garnered an incredible 33% in a poll released today. With this race still so fractured, i am stunned by this number. Mike hasn't set foot in our state in months, that i know of. This success is a result of grassroots support and the free national media exposure. As i've been saying, once people get to know Mike, they like Mike.

Contrast this poll with the same group's poll in October. Thompson led the way with 31% (he's down to 16% now). What did Huckabee get in October? Well, he wasn't even included in the poll question.

When you dive into the crosstabs, you find that Huckabee leads among voters who say that the Iraq War is one of their key issues. Also among those pegging Taxes, Economy & Jobs, Moral & Family Issues, and even Immigration. He leads with both men and women. He leads among age groups 30-45, 45-60, and 60+. He leads in every single area code.

Nationally, i find the numbers even more incredible. The daily tracking poll by Rasmussen shows Mike Huckabee in the LEAD nationally. Huck is at 20%, ahead of dropping-like-a-rock Giuliani at 17%. Two months ago today, he was at 4%.

Typologies & POTUS Vote Patterns

2007-12-05T19:20:00.000-05:00

Continuing with our look at the Pew Political Typologies, and what they may tell us about Mike Huckabee's prospects in the 2008 general election. In the previous post, i outlined a few of the groups, the key ones from our perspective. Here, we'll look at how each group voted in presidential elections back to 1980 (though i don't have data for 1988, and for 2000, all i could find was data in the 1999 study on how folks intended to vote in 2000). Still, that leaves us with 6 elections.

Note on the data - when i express a % of votes, it represents the votes for the GOP candidate vs. the Dem candidate. Third-party votes were not taken into account, an important fact to keep in mind when you see the Dole comments. And it doesn't reflect that some portion will not vote at all (that is accounted for in the conclusions section, though).

Enterprisers - the least variance (only a 3% standard deviation) of any group, solidly Republican, always at least 90% for the GOP candidate, ranging from a low of 92% for Dole in 1996, to a high of 99% for Bush in 2004.
2008 Forecast: not tough to predict, really. For the average GOP candidate, i peg it at 97%, ranging from 92% for Huckabee to 99% for Romney. A third-party Paul or Bloomberg could dip into that, but i don't expect that to happen.

Social Conservatives - also solid GOP, ranging from a low of 72% for Dole, to a high of 97% for Reagan 1984. On average, this group is 89% GOP.
2008 Forecast: The red/blue divide has solidified in recent years for socons, and so i expect them to go GOP at a 95% clip, with Huckabee leading the way in the high 90s, and Giuliani trailing at 80%.

ProGovernment Conservatives - averages 78% for the GOP candidate, dipping down to 64% for Dole, and a high of 93% for Bush 2000. Bush 2004 got 84% of this group.
2008 Forecast: another Huckabee wheelhouse. I have him leading this group, too, at 88%. Romney trails the field at 80%.

Upbeats - now we start getting into the swing groups. Upbeats have averaged 67% for the GOP, but there has been a healthy variance. Bush in 1992 got only 36%, and Dole only 47%. Those guys, as you know, lost those races. Bush 2004 got 82%, however. This group, more than any other, tends to go with the most-sunny candidate.
2008 Forecast: Huckabee is the most sunny GOP candidate since Reagan. I can see him matching Bush's 2004 mark. Giuliani would lag here, with Thompson not much better.

Disaffecteds - the KEY swing group, imo. Like the Upbeats group, they have voted with the winner in each instance i have to study. The nadir for the GOP was, again, Dole with 23%. Reagan 1984 crushed it among this group, getting 81%. Over the 6 elections, this group has gone GOP 57%.
2008 Forecast: I think the historical trend will continue, and the GOP will need at least 50% of this group to win the 2008 election. Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson would poll the best with the Disaffecteds, among the GOP contenders. Giuliani and Romney would lag. Huckabee's unusual (for a Republican, sadly) populist messages resonate here.

Conservative Democrats - Peaked in 1984 at 25% for Reagan. Bush 2004 got 18%, about this group's GOP average.
2008 Forecast: I expect a GOP % in the 11-13% range, regardless of candidate.

Of the other voting groups, all strong Democratic groups, i don't see anything noteworthy, other than perhaps a chance for Giuliani to siphon off some of the Liberals, due to his pro-choice views and a perception that he would be stronger on foreign policy than the Democratic candidate. Not enough to make much difference, but i thought i should mention it, in fairness.

Conclusion
When you compare my forecasts with the historical voter turnout patterns by group, you can forecast a general election outcome (again, ignoring possible third-party spoilers). Here's what i get, in descending order of electability...

Huckabee - 50.4%
McCain - 50.1%
Thompson - 48.2%
Romney - 48.1%
Giuliani - 47.0%

Probably surprising for some readers who hearken to the prevailing "wisdom" that a social moderate is the best bet in the general election. And i know i'm open to charges of hagiographic bias for Huckabee. What hurts Giulini is the double-punch of losing enough social conservatives over the abortion issue, and enough Upbeats due to his tendency to turn dour. What helps Huckabee is that he will pull the best among the two key swing groups - Upbeats and Disaffecteds.

Pew Political Typologies

2007-11-30T11:25:00.001-05:00

The Pew Research Center has analyzed the political views of Americans for more than a decade, most notably in their Political Typology reports. The typologies categorize Americans into one of 7-8 groups, based on their ideology, party identification, and values & beliefs.

For example, the Enterprisers group, representing about 10% of the country, is an extremely partisan Republican grouping, driven by a core belief in free enterprise and conservative social values. This group tends to be very patriotic, pro-business, anti-regulation, and assertive with foreign policy. Demographically, Enterprisers are predominately male, white, married, higher educated, and financially well-off. They are not much more religious than the country as a whole. This is the group that follows political news more closely than any other of the Typology groups. In the 2004 election, they voted for Bush 92-1 over John Kerry. (Incidentally, this is the group I end up in, when I take the typology test.)

The other groups, with their portion of the US registered voter population in (paren):

Social Conservatives (13%)
Pro Government Conservatives (10%)
Upbeats (13%)
Disaffecteds (10%)
Liberals (19%)
Conservative Democrats (15%)
Disadvantaged Democrats (10%)
Bystanders (0% of voters, but 10% of the adult population)

I have analyzed the 2004/2005 report in-depth, looking at the viewpoints of each group on key current issues and their voting patterns. I have also reviewed the prior reports, from 1999, 1994, and 1987, paying particular attention to the presidential voting patterns, from Reagan forward. In a future post, I'll outline what I've found there, and how it specifically relates to the 2008 election and Mike Huckabee. I have predicted voting outcomes for each of the groups for each of the top GOP candidates. Based on the last 2 decades, the key swing group is the Disaffected. Other important swing groups are Pro-Government Conservatives, Upbeats, and Conservative Democrats. Let's take a closer look at these 4 groups.

Disaffecteds

This is a politically cynical group that is mostly independent, party-wise. They tend to be dissatisfied with both their personal situation and with the state of the country. This group faces significant personal financial pressures, and is highly concerned with the impact of immigration or anything that impacts the availability of good jobs. They voted for Bush 2-1 over Kerry in the 2004 election, but about 25% of them didn't bother to vote at all. A large majority (70%) have no college education. They skew male (57%), and rural/suburban. This is a group that contains a large number of what used to be called Reagan Democrats.

Pro-Government Conservatives

Formerly termed "Populist Republicans", this group is typified by its strong religious faith and moral conservatism. Unlike other GOP groups, however, they express skepticism about the free market and are favorable toward government programs providing an economic safety net. They went for Bush by a 5-1 margin in 2004, but a fifth of them didn't vote. Demographically, much like a female (62%) version of the Disaffecteds. Nearly half are parents of in-the-household children, and nearly half live in the South.

Upbeats

Optimistic and independent, Upbeats feel good about the country and their own situation. They are more moderate on moral issues. In 2004, they voted for Bush by more than a 4-1 margin. Skew young, white, married, wealthy, educated, and suburban. A large portion of Catholics and mainline Protestants.

Conservative Democrats

Pretty solidly Democratic in recent elections, but distinguished from other Democrats by their religious orientation and conservative views on moral issues. This group contains an over-sample of older women and blacks. They voted for John Kerry as solidly as did the Upbeats for Bush.

More later…

From Pastorate to Presidency

2007-11-25T08:42:00.000-05:00

A very nice article from the Concord (NH) Monitor about Huckabee's time in the pastorate in Arkansas. Highlighting some quotes from the article. Unless noted otherwise, the quotes are from the article's author...

He could deliver a heavy moral message in such a light, folksy way that you didn't even notice the proselytizing. He remembered everyone's name. And he had a way of winning support for his good ideas by making the deacons think the ideas were their own.
Huckabee says he started each elementary school year with two pairs of blue jeans; by the summer, they'd be cut into shorts. (I included this one because it reminded me of my roots. It's be nice to have a leader with a humble upbringing.)
He was very serious about his faith, but he was also a fun guy to be around. He was never a religious stick in the mud. -- from Mike's college freshman roommate
We used to sit in the dorm room and talk about what we wanted to do, around our popcorn popper. [Mike] said, 'What I'd like to do is help Christian people get involved in making our nation better.' - ibid
If you could have a perfect pastor, he comes as close as anybody. He rejuvenated the church. He blew the back doors, really, off the church. -- from the church historian of Mike's church in Texarkana
He had the vision, but you've got to sell the vision. And he was able to do that. People caught on and said, 'This is a great idea! This is my idea!' If you use a stick, the horse is going to kick you with its hooves. (Huckabee) was very good with the carrot approach in selling (his ideas). -- from a Texarkana congregant
Too many people seemed unconcerned about how many marriages were salvaged, how many kids got off drugs, or how many teen pregnancies were prevented. Rather, the chief concerns seemed to be whether the menus for Wednesday night dinners were appetizing, what color the softball jerseys would be, how loud some guest musicians might sing, whether the coffeepot was ready in the Sunday school building, and whether there were paper towels in the women's rest room. -- from Mike himself, and a good summation of my own frustrations with many Baptist churches

Chuck Norris Approved

2007-11-18T20:34:00.000-05:00

Mike Huckabee revealed his first campaign ad this morning during his interview on Fox. And it's a doozy. Check it out...

Not what you'd expect from the typical campaign, huh? And that's what i like about it. From a marketing (not political) perspective, it is clearly designed to build awareness, the proper approach for Huckabee at this point. Even on the Fox Sunday show, the sort of TV program made for the highly involved, they introduced the segment with (paraphrasing) "just who is this guy?". This ad will draw interest, create conversation and buzz, and drive interested folks to the website. I doubt it runs all the often as a paid TV ad, but will get plenty of free PR, and will be a viral hit on the web.

And then Mike will follow (quickly) with serious issue-oriented ads, or ads that highlight his engaging personality.

Pocketbook Politics (of a sort)

2007-11-17T12:22:00.000-05:00

I enjoyed this article from Mr. Smartypants, about what the candidates might have in their wallets, after he actually did ask Mike Huckabee just that. Below is an excerpt of what he found. Read the article to see the humorous imaginings of what he'd find from Clinton, Edwards, et al.

He carried a handgun permit, frequent-flier club cards, five credit cards, two gift cards, a Marriott card, an AARP card, his hunting and fishing permit, expired duck stamps from last year, a slip listing the contact numbers of his band, Capitol Offense, and about $175 in cash, mostly in small bills.

He needs the frequent-flier cards because he travels on normal planes - US Airways for this trip. He needs the credit cards and cash because he pays for stuff. Some candidates have their staff handle the taxis and tips, but his national field director is his daughter, Sarah, so he's probably used to grabbing the tab.

The wallet tells me Huckabee is a fairly normal guy.

Video of the Day: Politically Uncorrect

2007-11-16T20:10:00.001-05:00

Huckabee - politically uncorrect

p.s. Mike moves into a 2nd place tie nationally in the daily tracking poll by Rasmussen. It's time for my friends and family to get on board.

Huckabee's Embryonic Campaign Aborted by the NRLC

2007-11-13T21:23:00.001-05:00

I was once a member of the National Right to Life Committee. Not in leadership, by any means, but just a rank & file, dues-paying pro-lifer. I received and thoroughly read the periodic newspaper. In my youth, i even contemplated joining the then-current fashion and getting myself arrested by picketing an abortion clinic while visiting Atlanta for a work conference. I have read and proudly display on my bookshelf such titles as Arresting Abortion by John Whitehead and Chuck Swindoll's Sanctity of Life.

I'm not a member any longer. It would be dramatic to announce that today's endorsement of Fred Thompson by the NRLC was the trigger. Dramatic, but false. I quit the NRLC long ago. Not because i changed my views, but because i couldn't see how my dues were making any difference. I say that not to disparage the organization, which i continued to appreciate, even if i never heard much about them for the past decade or so.

So why should i get worked up over their presidential endorsement of Thompson? It's because it strikes me as an endorsement borne not of principle, but of crass political maneuvering. Call me naive, but i still expect passion-issue groups like NRLC to remain true to principle. And when you have a clear pro-life choice like Mike Huckabee (or even Dr. Ron Paul, for goodness sake), how can you ignore that?

In their statements today, the NRLC reps repeatedly pointed to polls, claiming that Thompson was the most viable candidate behind the pro-abortion Giuliani. They even have a candidate comparison at their site that references, and even sorts by, poll numbers. That's bad enough, but the poll numbers they site there are from early October!

In other words, the NRLC has taken a snapshot of the campaign life at an early embryonic stage, and decided that Huckabee's prospects of a full & happy life as a presidential candidate were not worth it. This was a baby not worth keeping. Look at how tiny it is! How can we consider that truly alive?

So, here we sit, some 5 weeks later, with an updated ultrasound of the campaign. But the NRLC apparently didn't want to see the face of the growing life, much like abortion doctors don't want to show real ultrasounds to their patients.

p.s. I apologize if my theme and post title offend some. I ask that you grant the dramatic license, for the long-run sake of our unborn brothers & sisters. I draw no real parallels between a presidential campaign and the real-life tragedy of abortion. Furthermore, i do not believe that Huckabee's campaign is in any way terminated.

Up to 21% in Iowa!

2007-11-13T20:21:00.001-05:00

New Iowa poll just released by CBS News has Mike Huckabee at 21%, trailing Romney at 27%. This 6 point gap is the smallest lead for Romney in some time there. His personally contributed fortune in media buys isn't doing the trick. Well, it got him to this point, but it's looking more and more like it won't be enough to fool the savvy Iowans.

In the same poll, Dead-Fred is sinking like a geode (the state rock of Iowa, and appropriate in that there's no way to tell what's inside a geode until you crack it open), falling into single digits.

There's more to the poll that is quite interesting. I hope to find time later to dive into it.

The Price of Freedom

2007-11-11T10:46:00.000-05:00

Here is a great video with a segment of a speech that Mike Huckabee made to the Midwest Republican Leadership Conference earlier this year. It tells the tale of Arkansas high school teacher Martha Cothren imparting a lesson on the price of freedom. If it seems free to some of us, that's because some paid very high prices.

Consider this on this Veterans' Day. And check out Huckabee's proposed Veterans' Bill of Rights for areas where we are falling short.

Three Keys for a President

2007-11-11T09:32:00.000-05:00

Today, i want to think more broadly about the Presidency. What are the elements to look for when considering who to select? I employ a three-pronged test, a 3-legged stool, if you will. The best candidates will be those who are strong on all 3 legs.

The Three Keys are:

Competency
POTUS is a huge job, and it takes an intelligent, capable, broad-thinking leader to do it well. In the business world (as in most things that are most purely meritocracy based - sports being a prime example), the best predictor of future success is past success. So, look for someone who has demonstrated success in past leadership opportunities.

Integrity
Here, we are looking for someone who is centered, who has a coherent worldview, a vision for America's future based on creative ideas. Or perhaps this leg is better defined by its absence, since that is more likely observed in politics. By this, i mean the typical political pandering we see. The thumb-in-the-wind guy. The poll react-er. The type that says one thing to one set of voters, and another to a different set. At its worst, we term this "saying anything to get elected". This leg is the most important of the three for me, as i am vigilantly leery of those seeking power for power's sake.

Ideology
Most political discussion centers on this leg, although it may be the least important of the three when it comes to the Presidency. Obviously, we all prefer to have a leader who agrees with us as much as possible. For me, i absolutely want a President who understands that pre-born children deserve protection. I want a President who agrees with the foundational principles of our country. Who will provide a check on ever-expanding state power (and by "state" here i mean a nation). And a few score other issues. I won't say much on this one, as it is easily understood.

So we throw these three elements - competence, integrity, and platform - into the soup, and what do we get? The answer is not always obvious, or perhaps rarely obvious. Sometimes we don't get what we thought we were getting, as in the case of GWB and fiscal restraint.

Surveying the 2008 Candidates

Since this is a Huckebee blog, it should not be surprising that i believe Mike Huckabee comes out with the highest marks in my 3-variable calculation. We are very close in ideology. Not perfectly aligned, but closer than the rest (with the possible exception of John McCain, if you go by those candidate-chooser websites, but those tools didn't ask about my views on campaign-finance reform and its violation of the 1st amendment). I believe Mike is a man of high integrity. I see him as different from the typical politician, and believe he truly desires to lift up America and its citizens.

Finally, on competence, i am attracted by Mike's experience as a governor for over a decade, and his record in Arkansas transforming the infrastructure (the state's highways were truly abysmal, so much so that i would go out of my way to avoid driving through the middle of Arkansas, the natural route when going from North Carolina to Oklahoma - now, the highways are much, much better) and transforming the fiscal mindset to one of family-oriented tax reform (which was the first broad-based income tax cut in the history of that state) and the fiscal coffers to one of surplus (another link).

I won't discuss the other candidates in any detail. I will only say that all of them, again with the possible exception of John McCain, come up short on at least one of the three stool-legs. The Democrats all fail for me, at a minimum, on ideology, as does Rudy Giuliani. Fred Thompson fails on competence, as does Ron Paul. Mitt Romney fails on integrity. (Before anyone jumps on this paragraph, i stipulate that it is decidedly short on argument, and mostly just presents my conclusions.)

Readers, voters, should draw their own conclusions about each candidate. I merely ask you to consider all three elements before deciding.

Abortion, The Princess Bride, and the Hijacking of Language

2007-10-30T21:55:00.001-04:00

Mike Huckabee, in his speech at the Family Research Council's Washington Briefing (videos linked in prior posts), spoke about his pro-life views and the "holocaust" of abortion on demand. Those who have been fighting the pro-life battle to end (or at least severely limit) abortion didn't blink an eye at the use of that term, but left-wing bloggers immediately jumped in with frothing indignation, and the ADL called for an apology and a promise to stop using that particular phrasing. I even saw one blogger claim that the word "holocaust" should always be capitalized and can only be used as a proper noun to refer to the Nazi extermination efforts against Jews during WWII. Not as a matter of political correctness, but as a matter of grammatical correctness.

I can't see why one group should get to claim exclusivity of a word, even one so charged as holocaust. It is reasonable to hold all the proper outrage and sympathy for what happened in the capital H holocaust, and still be able to use that small-H version of the word to refer to other atrocities. The fact that there are other holocausts does not any way diminish or detract from the big Holocaust.

Reagan & The Pope

Besides, it's not as if Huckabee stands alone, or that this is some novel linguistic or propagandist trickery. Ronald Reagan, in 1983 during his Presidency, wrote a famous essay about abortion. It was entitled Abortion and the Conscience of the Nation. Well worth the read, still a quarter-century later. In this essay, Reagan refers the reader to a quote from Professor William Brennan:

The cultural environment for a human holocaust is present whenever any society can be misled into defining individuals as less than human and therefore devoid of value and respect.

Reagan also quotes approvingly from a book by John Powell entitled Abortion: The Silent Holocaust. (Not incidentally, Reagan also draws parallels between abortion and slavery, which enraged other interest groups.) While it's true that the President does not, in this essay or anywhere else I've been able to find, directly call abortion a holocaust, I do believe that these 2 references are intentional on his part. If he had any squeamishness about the term, he could have easily found a quote other than Brennan's.

Another noted leader of the era, Pope John Paul II, also saw some commonalities, remarked upon in his book Memory and Identity. This, too, set off a firestorm of criticism, prompting then-Cardinal (now Pope himself) Ratzinger to issue a clarification. JP2 rightly called abortion a "legal extermination" of persons deemed less than human.

It is well worth mentioning, even though it is obvious, that there are key differences between the abortion holocaust and the Jewish Holocaust by the Nazi regime. It is especially abhorrent to seek the absolute extermination of an entire group of people. As a Christian, it is doubly painful that the targeted group were fellow God-disciples.

There's enough pain to go around, though. Calling abortion a holocaust is not an attempt to draw perfect parallels to the Holocaust, or to ride on its outrage-coattails. It is a term to refer to grand-scale killing atrocity, particularly one that is based on dehumanization of the victims. It should not be surprising that pro-lifers feel this way about abortion.

The word holocaust
It's a strange word to use in either case, in my opinion, given its etymology. The word is Greek, and literally means "burned whole". As the link points out, the term was originally a Bible word denoting burnt offerings, but its usage expanded in the mid-1800s to refer to a massacre of a large number of persons. The wiki entry goes into greater detail. Interestingly, what we now call The Holocaust was originally called Shoah, or catastrophe. Theologically, shoah makes much more sense than holocaust, which suggests a sacrifice to God. In that sense, it doesn't make sense to use it for abortion, either.

It's a well-traveled word. You can even find cultural references to the word, such as in the move The Princess Bride, when Westley laments, "Oh, what I wouldn't give for a holocaust cloak." Or a heavy-metal band from Scotland. Or comic-book villain.

Back to Abortion

So what are we to make of the special indignation that greats the use of this word to describe abortion? It strikes me that while some like the ADL are purists in their opposition, others are merely reflecting their politics, objecting as a wedge-point because they do not agree with the pro-life position. One otherwise sober blogger suggests that it aligns the speaker with the forces of intolerance (upon creating the hyperlink here, I note that the author reworded his post to remove the reference to intolerance – I commend him).

I do agree that the term is used to get the audience's attention, and get you to thinking, but it is done not crassly or unsympathetically or certainly not intolerantly. It is an honest accounting of how a pro-lifer feels about the tragedy of abortion.

Must-Sees

2007-10-23T22:28:00.001-04:00

There are some things you just have to see or read. Things that don't necessarily need my commentary.

First, Huckabee's outstanding speech (which he wrote himself) at the FRC's Washington Briefing. This was a speech for a specific audience. Part 3 is the best part, when Mike goes into full sermon mode talking about David over Goliath, et al. Part 1. Part 2. I'll try to embed Part 3 here...

Second, this article by Jonathon Alter at Newsweek. If you still have doubts about Mike's electability in the general election, see Alter's take, as he concludes that Huckabee is the GOP's best bet.

Huckabee comes across more hopeful than Giuliani, more believable than Romney, more intelligent than Thompson and fresher than McCain. He would hold the base and capture moderates drawn to his down-home style. His greatest asset is that he alone among the Republicans "speaks American." He connects to his audience with stories and metaphors and a geniality that can't be faked.

Entering a New Phase

2007-10-23T21:52:00.000-04:00

On the heels of Huckabee's big weekend (let's call it a long 3-day weekend), when he rocked the house at the "value voters'" Washington Briefing and knocked out the other GOP candidates with a whopping 51% of the onsite vote, and when Mike excelled again in a GOP debate, the Huckabee campaign is entering new territory. It's the terrain of a top tier candidate, part of the Big 5 as the GOP race only gets more muddled over time.

We should expect a ramp-up in attacks, mostly from the blogosphere sniping at Mike's perceived weaknesses. More than a decade as governor provides plenty of fodder for twisting the record. I'll grant that there are a few valid criticisms; it's just that it never stops there. And we may even see some attack ads in Iowa from the Romney campaign or affiliated groups.

It will be interesting to see how the Huckabee crew handles the increased scrutiny. They have been unfailingly nice thus far (perhaps except for the snarky comments about how depressing it must be to have raised all that dough with little to show for it). And on the Huckabee blogs and discussion forums, the Huckabeelievers are almost uniformly polite and cheery folk. Are we prepared for the gloves-off freak show?

P.S. Did we finally get that tipping point in the Chuck Norris endorsement? I was amazed at the press coverage that got. I even had a not-politically-involved co-worker pop into my office Monday afternoon to see if i had heard the news. I have not revealed my Huckabee fandom at work, so that's not why he stopped by. He's just the sort of guy who gets restless or bored and wants to share whatever the zeitgeist of the moment is, whether it be some sports headline or a natural disaster or what have you. Norris on Huckabee fit the bill.

By the way, if you scoff at the notion of Walker Texas Ranger weighing in on politics, well, that was my initial reaction, too. But read the link above. Chuck lays out a detailed, cogent case for our guy Huckabee.

Interview with Grist

2007-10-17T20:11:00.000-04:00

Been meaning to link this for a while. Grist specializes in environmental news and issues. I got a kick out of this blurb on their "About Us" page.

Grist: it's gloom and doom with a sense of humor. So laugh now -- or the planet gets it.

They have posted interviews with many of the 2008 candidates, including Mike Huckabee. Mike shares his passion for the pursuit of energy independence, and why it's also a national security issue. He talks about his interest in the environment and conservation from a God-following, let's-take-care-of-His-creation angle.

He reveals this his "environmental hero" is Theodore Roosevelt (woohoo!). And he tells a humorous story about confronting litterers on a canoe trip down an Arkansas river. A very nice interview that is well worth your time to check out.

A Big Day

2007-10-17T19:47:00.000-04:00

A red-letter day for the Huckabee campaign, primarily from the fantastic poll results from Iowa, released by noted pollsters Rasmussen. Huckabee has surged to 18%, a nip behind the already-fading Thompson (19%), and within guitar-shredding distance of Romney (25%).

To have reached this level of support with almost no money, and no L&O reruns, is a great testament to the campaign and the candidate himself.

The 2nd piece of news today was a column from Dick Morris, who chronicles the field with praise for Huckabee. Morris said he was "amazed" (in a good way) with Huckabee's approach to issues, calling him a "refreshing change" in contrast to Bill Clinton. Here are some of the other adjectives Morris used to describe Mike:

articulate
principled
knowledgeable
witty
sincere
dedicated
courageous

Finally, i'd like to call attention to a nice post from Justin in Oklahoma. He outlines 4 areas where he expects Huckabee to get more criticism as he ascends in the polls. You can already see the attacks starting.

Can a Pastor Be President?

2007-10-13T22:03:00.000-04:00

Mike Huckabee wears the badge of his last name proudly, despite the inane criticism of it recently. He's also faced criticism from some about the prospect of a Baptist pastor becoming the President. But in this article from the Religion News Service, and published in today's Winston-Salem Journal, Mike makes a cogent case that his minister experience is quite helpful, if not directly pertinent, to the job of POTUS. It, too, is a badge to trumpet, not hide.

Here's the money quote...
“I think it’s the greatest preparation that a person can have for public service. There’s not any social pathology that I couldn’t put a name and a face to. Somebody says they want to talk about the issue of the elderly, I’ve dealt with those folks. I’ve dealt with a 14-year-old girl who’s pregnant and hasn’t told her parents yet. I’ve talked to the young couple who’s head over heels in debt. ... I think it gives you a real perspective about people and what they’re going through that’s important.”

Huckabeelievers will certainly want to read the entire article. If you find the link dead (not sure how long the newspaper will keep it live), add a comment, and i'll come back and post some more of it.

P.S. The United States has already had one pastor become President. James Garfield. Let's pray our guy has a happier ending.

3 Views from First Things

2007-10-12T20:46:00.000-04:00

One of my favorite magazines is First Things. It bills itself as a "Journal of Religion, Culture, and Public Life". In their November issue, the magazine presents 3 short essays about the 2008 election. The first, by Village Voice writer Nat Hentoff, focuses on pro-life issues. The third, by FT editor Joseph Bottom, reviews the depressing litany (his view) of candidates, and is annoyingly dismissive of Mike Huckabee.

But i call your attention to the middle essay, by John J. DiIulio Jr., who served as the first Director of the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives. DiIulio looks at the candidates through the lens of economic justice. Who is best equipped to lead the country economically, not merely for the sake of fattening already-fat wallets, but for taking care of all of America's citizens? He concludes that Mike Huckabee is the best of the GOP candidates.

P.S. I am linking, not excerpting, from the columns, due to my confusion over First Thing's copyright policy. Don't want to step on their toes. To find Di Iulio's essay, you'll have to scroll about halfway down the link.

Mike's Last Name

2007-10-11T23:08:00.000-04:00

In honor of Mike and his last name...