RSDO Part II

I was going to post some more good reasons why Romney should drop out, if anyone should. But The Thomas Report covered them all already. Huckabee...

• Better debater & communicator
• Able to pull in non-typical constituencies, such as the African-American vote
• Greater history of winning tough elections
• Has defeated the Clinton political machine

If you're a first-time visitor here, i know i'm blowing your mind. But spend 5 minutes really thinking about this. The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every turn in this election (except for the prediction that Hillary & Bill would resort to their old tricks). Don't get sucked in to the same old inanities.

Romney Should Drop Out

The conventional wisdom from the meanstream media (stole that from another poster at Huck's Army) is that the GOP race is down to two people – McCain vs. Romney. Mitt, of course, has seized on this theme and has asserted that a vote for Governor Huckabee is a vote for John McCain. If this is truly to become a two-man race, and the goal is to defeat the momentum-laden McCain (assuming last night's woeful performance in the debate didn't stop his momentum in its tracks), then the best thing to do is coalesce around the most conservative candidate, the most electable candidate, the candidate with the most upside. That candidate is not Mitt Romney; it's Mike Huckabee.

Most Conservative

Mitt likes to proclaim himself the standard-bearer on the 3-legged stool of conservatism, with the 3 legs being social, fiscal, and national security issues. Like he triumphantly proclaimed last night that of course Ronald Reagan would endorse him. But just because i can slap on a glove and cleats doesn't mean you should put me in at shortstop. Is Mitt Romney the Sidd Finch of politics? Is there any there there?

Consider the 3 leg formulation.

• Social – even if we believe that Romney has finally hit his conservative political puberty and has truly converted to the prolife position (at most it's a position with him, not a cause) and other social conservative bona fides, he would still lag far behind Governor Huckabee's convictions, record, and prospects on this leg. A big win for Huckabee
  
• National Security – Like almost all governors, you'll find little directly relevant foreign policy experience for either candidate. This would turn on judgment, toughness, and leadership. I'm not impressed with Romney's CEO experience and so don't give the leadership advantage that he surely thinks he owns. I believe Huckabee has better judgment and would be tougher with aggressive regimes.
  
• Fiscal – Romney believes this is his trump card. But here's your trump card...
  

TAX FREEDOM DAY

A tax freedom day is the day in the calendar when you've worked long enough in the new year to afford to pay all your taxes. It's a sad commentary on our times, but this date is usually in April, and seems to fall later and later (see table 1 at the link) all the time. In 2007, it is estimated that the national tax freedom day was April 30th. So let's compare the records of Governors Huckabee and Romney in their respective states, looking at the Tax Freedom Day when they took office vs. when each left office.

Governor/State		TFD – Start		TFD - End	Net Effect
Huckabee / AR		April 22		April 22	Same
Romney / MA		April 21		May 6	15 days WORSE

If you don't mind working an extra two weeks for the government, then by all means believe the talking heads that Romney is the fiscal conservative.

Most Electable

I covered this in my Typologies post, showing the polling evidence that Governor Huckabee would be a better general election candidate than Romney. You can also look at the head to head polls compiled at RCP. Against Clinton, Huckabee fares 2-3 points better than Romney does. Against Obama, Huckabee also fares better than does Romney. Granted, neither candidate is polling well against those two right now, but this has been a consistent pattern – Huckabee trumps Romney. Governor Huckabee is more electable than Governor Romney, based on all the evidence we have to study.

Most Upside

Romney has had the powerful two-pronged advantage of both MONEY and MEDIA behind him, and still hasn't won a contested primary other than Michigan, which is practically home for him, given that his father was a popular governor there.

Think about it. Romney has outspent even his well-funded rivals by orders of magnitude that boggle the mind. Millions upon millions on negative ads, distortions of the records of the other candidates. He has all the power of talk radio behind him, all the conservative establishment media serving as surrogate mouthpieces for his campaign.

And what does he have to show for it? If he hasn't been able to beat McCain up until now, why would he all of sudden start doing it next Tuesday or beyond? If anyone should drop out, it should be Romney. The conservative establishment should try something else. That something else is, of course, Governor Huckabee.

Huckabee Endorses Reagan

The Calvinator mentions the great answer by Governor Huckabee in the debate last night. Here's the clip...

California Debate

The debate was structured to buy into the fiction that this is only a two-man race between Governor Romney and Senator McCain, but if I have one hope coming form it, it would be that everyone could hear Governor Huckabee's response to the final question of the night. When each candidate was asked if Ronald Reagan would have endorsed them for President, Mike said:

I think it would be incredibly presumptuous and even arrogant for me to try to suggest what Ronald Reagan would do, that he would endorse any of us against the others.

Let me just say this, I'm not going to pretend he would endorse me. I wish he would. I would love that, but I endorse him, and I'm going to tell you why.

It wasn't just his specific policies, but Ronald Reagan was something more than just a policy wonk. He was a man who loved this country, and he inspired this country to believe in itself again.

What made Ronald Reagan a great president was not just the intricacies of his policies, though they were good policies. It was that he loved America and saw it as a good nation and a great nation because of the greatness of its people.

And if we can recapture that, that's when we recapture the Reagan spirit. It's that spirit that has a can-do attitude about America's futures and that makes us love our country whether we're Democrats or Republicans. And that's what I believe Ronald Reagan did -- he brought this country back together and made us believe in ourselves.

And whether he believes in us, I hope we still believe in those things which made him a great leader and a great American.

When I can find some video of it, I'll add it. The best part was that this was the very last statement made by any of the candidates in the debate.

Max Out for Mike

Friday February 1st has been designated as Max Out for Mike day.  If you can give the maximum allowed contribution of $2300 ($4600 per couple), please do so. If you can't give that much, please give the maximum that you can, whether that's $1 or $2299.

You can register your intent at MaxOutForMike.com

I will be Maxing Out for Mike! Will you join me?

Post Florida Report

Tonight Florida awarded 57 delegates to John McCain. Up next are the 22 states on super Tuesday.

This is what i said on the 20^th after SC. It's still true. Note that Missouri has MORE delegates than did Florida.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates.

Updated Predictions

The smart money tonight is on the end of the Giuliani campaign, and that he'll throw his support to McCain. Certainly, Giuliani's exit would give big winner-take-all states such as NY and NJ to McCain. So here's my latest update, reflecting my assumption of the end of Giuliani, and also taking out any future Thompson delegates (with the inconsequential exception of a few in TN). Still not enough for a majority, but enough to give McCain a clear command of the race, and perhaps enough to get deals worked out by Easter.

Again, this table shows my delegate estimates through 2/5.

Candidate	Original	1/20 est.	1/29 est.
Mike Huckabee	423	338	345
Mitt Romney	194	221	247
John McCain	205	331	636
Rudy Giuliani	359	300	11
Fred Thompson	59	54	8
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68	65

I'm probably still wearing my Huck-colored glasses, but i'll fight to the end.

Next Tuesday, all you have to watch is Missouri. If there's a miracle to be had, it will have to start there.

Ahead of the Curve

Don't you want your president to be forward-thinking? To drive change, not merely tag along. To put forth innovative ideas, not rehash the same old platitudes. In short, to be a leader and not a follower. Of course you do.

Governor Mike Huckabee is just that. Consider what we've seen on the campaign trail, as Governor Huckabee has led the conversation on many issues, and other candidates have trailed or parroted his ideas. Or will soon.

• The most innovative and bold idea on any candidate's platform – Republican or Democrat – in the FairTax.
  
• Energy independence within 8 years & an understanding that it is a national security issue
  
• Exploration of switchgrass as an alternate biofuel
  
• Stimulating OUR economy – not China's – by investing in our infrastructure. Namely, to start with, widening I-95.
  
• Recognizing, several months ahead of the other GOP candidates and the pundits, that the economy was weakening (about a minute into the video)
  
• A focus on actual health, not just health insurance or the medical system
  
• A call for total government transparency
  
• A bill of rights for our military veterans
  
• A detailed plan to address illegal immigration
  
• A focus on whole-brain education
  
• Closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay, a position for which he was criticized by Fred Thompson, only to have the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs come out just a few days later saying the exact same thing, agreeing with Governor Huckabee
  

The Governor is stereotyped as a bumpkin', a view that i count as bigotry. Prejudice against southerners, against evangelicals. But he is leading the intellectual charge.

What to Expect on Tuesday

Tuesday is the Florida Primary. Here's a list of what I think you can expect:

Mike Huckabee will come in either 4th or 3rd.

The media will declare that this means his candidacy is doomed.

Conservative media will openly speculate that Mike will drop out before Super Tuesday

Mike Huckabee will not drop out.

You need to Watch This

And send the link you all you friends.

Great Article

This article does an excellent job explaining the appeal of Governor Huckabee and the frustration one feels as one of his supporters at the attacks from "friendly fire" he has received pretty much non-stop for the past month plus.

WallBuilders

I know that Huckabee's weaknesses aren't in the Social Conservative area, but I felt it would be good to point folks to the WallBuilders Voters Guide.

(Semi) Live Blogging the FL Debate

Bullets added as debate rolls on, with more recent comments at the top...

• Awesome segment there with the Governor talking over and standing up to Russert's pessimism. "That's the problem in America. Everyone talks about what we can't do; we need to talk about what we can do, whether it's overhauling the tax system or reaching energy independence." Not an exact quote. That's leadership. That's exactly right, Governor!
• There's a 10-12% inflation rate, Dr. Paul? I guess if all you spend money on is surgery, and don't spend anything on groceries or phone bills and such.
• There's the Bill Clinton mention. I win some points at Politico's Kingmaker.
• I agree with McCain about the gang of 14. And i agree with Medved in general that the same goofs who are lying about Huckabee's record are lying about McCain's record.
• Rudy is stealing Mike's lines about energy independence?
• Does Mitt fib again about the 2nd amendment?
• There's that Kemp/Gramm roll-call again! LOL.
• Ron Paul is an economy wonk at heart, and he can't get away from that.
• Pretty good defense of the FairTax, and he mentioned that current prices already reflect embedded taxes.
• Interesting that McCain is asking Governor Huckabee about the FairTax. This is not how i expected this segment to go. It almost sounds like a set-up, like perhaps these guys had a pre-arranged deal. We'll see when Huckabee asks his question.
• If Rudy is crafty, he would turn Mitt's (long-awaited) question around on him, and say that one thing we cannot do is have American companies, like Mitt's Bain Capital, partnering with China to undermine our military independence.
• Mitt is supposed to ask a question, but he's making a speech.
• Huckabee should have talked about radical Islamic fascists, not Easter Eggs.
• Good answer by Giuliani about the 60% poll (the hindsighters who say the Iraq war was not worth it).
• So Romney put together a National Guard version of a GI bill, but he's not a big-government conservative? Now, i don't think he is, but we should use the same standard for Governor Huckabee.
• Huckabee read my mind. It's not about the richie-riches.
• Who's doing their 2010 budget already?
• Russert references the "prosperity gap" for the GOP. This is the killer, mostly unspoken news for the GOP this year. It's not just Bush; it's this general belief among Americans that the Democrats are the better party for the economy. If the GOP is to have any hope at all, they HAVE to close this gap, and it won't happen with a business-as-usual Republican (ie, Romney). It will take someone who can connect with the middle class.
• A 9/11 reference for Giuliani, but it comes from Brian Williams, not Rudy. Oops, no, of course, Rudy goes in depth about a ground zero story.
• Two hits already on Sarbanes-Oxley. Good! Being in the corporate world, i see SOX as more government meddling and a bureaucratic boondoggle. Companies are spending enormous resources to stay in compliance. This, to me, is worse regulation, in terms of real impact, than the reviled McCain-Feingold.
• McCain has taken to this roll-call of fiscal conservatives who are supporting him. That's cool and all (i'm a big fan of Jack Kemp, to take one example), but i doubt it resonates with the average voter. I'm into this stuff and even i don't recognize all those names, but if i'm an average voter, i'm sure those are all rich old white guys.
• Romney asserts that he faced a $3 billion budget deficit. But this is misleading, as the Boston Globe has repeatedly pointed out. There's some truth to Romney's success story, but it is way overblown. You'd think a Harvard MBA wouldn't need to resume-pad.
• Interesting proposal from Governor Huckabee to widen I-95 by 2 lanes. Totally avoids the bait to attack Romney. And an intriguing point about whose economy - ours or China's? - will be most stimulated by these so-called stimulus packages.

ATTN: IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, MICHIGAN, NEVADA, & SOUTH CAROLINA HUCKABEE (and Hunter) VOTERS

Your job is not done.  If you voted for Governor Huckabee (or Duncan Hunter), and you don't want that vote to go to waste, you need to step up and contribute so that your candidate of choice will be able to see this race to the finish line.

If everyone who has already voted for Huckabee & Hunter would donate just $25, it would raise $8,660,450.  If each only gave $10, it would add up to $3,464,180.

Make sure your vote continues to matter.

Now, to people who haven't voted yet.

If you haven't given any money, what are you waiting for?  You can't give $25 to the most inspiring Presidential candidate in 24 years?  You can't give $10?

If you have already given, but aren't maxed out, You can't give another $25 to the most inspiring Presidential candidate in 24 years?  You can't give another $10?

The Reports of Huckabee's (Political) Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.

Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.

For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).

Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.

Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.

I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.

The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).

Update on FL

I just confirmed that Florida will be a statewide winner-take-all primary. I had seen sites suggesting that, but none of them provided an original source to back up what just appeared to be speculation. But it's true. Back in August, after the national GOP stripped a few states of half their delegates for attempting to jump-the-2/5-gun, the Florida GOP decided to change their delegate process to award all of the 57 delegates to whichever candidate got the most votes across the entire state.

My calculations below do not take that into account, but aside from any momentum effect (a missing animal this year), this change wouldn't have a major impact on the counts. It would mean that any of 3 candidates - Huckabee, Giuliani or McCain - could emerge from Super Tuesday with the most delegates (i suppose Romney could too, but i can't see it), but no one would still have a sizeable lead, and nowhere near on track for a majority.

I'm hopeful for Governor Huckabee, but Florida has never been a state i expected him to win outright. I was banking on securing the delegates from the northern and central parts of the state. There's a chance, of course, of a victory, but i'd peg it at less than 10%. We supporters must keep working.