Looking Forward: Huckabee

We had a great run, but Governor Huckabee came up short this time around. Hearty congratulations to Senator McCain on his all-but-sealed nomination.

But what about our guy Huckabee? There's been plenty written about what he should or might do next, mostly from the same prognosticators who have been spectacularly wrong throughout this season. Maybe i'm in that same boat, the SS Clueless, but here are my thoughts. It depends on whether Governor Huckabee would like to be POTUS at some point in the future. As early as 2012 or beyond.

If he wants to be president, Governor Huckabee should continue burnishing his foreign policy credentials and his federal economic skills. Accepting the VP slot with McCain would be the ideal spot (i don't buy the argument from some ardent Huckabee supporters to stay away from the McCain ticket, on the presumption that he is a sure loser - he's not). Accepting a cabinet position, unless it's the obviously unlikely Secretary of State position, would not be a good move. Being the Secretary of Health & Human Services, for example, is not a stepping-stone to the Oval Office, and would only serve to keep the Governor pigeon-holed.

Here's an off-the-wall suggestion. Take a high-level, visible position at a conservative think-tank like the Heritage Foundation or the American Enterprise Institute. Perhaps Newt Gingrich's American Solutions outfit. And not to focus solely or even primarily on traditional religious-right causes and issues. But to apply the principles of conservative governing to all the issues dear to the Governor. Fair taxation, whole-brained education, health, valuing of life, stewardship of the earth, and so forth. This would solidify his conservative credentials, especially in the eyes of skeptics, and would also serve to allay the unfounded fears that Huckabee was nothing more than Pat Robertson redux.

If the presidential aspirations are over, there are many more options. Huckabee could have a stellar career as a talk-show host, either on radio or tv. It would be delicious irony if he could unseat some of the goobers that railed against him on a daily basis, with no basis.

Or, even better imo, Huckabee could start a think-tank (can you tell that i like think-tanks?) with a special focus on the broadening evangelical environment. It wouldn't have to be much different than my suggestion above, with a key difference that this enterprise could be overtly "religious" in orientation. Perhaps join forces with Chuck Colson's Wilberforce Forum.

Whatever he does, i will remain a supporter.

54-46

Sorry for the absence lately. I've been working intently the last two weeks on a family genealogy project. Quite fascinating stuff.

Just a quick note then. Most observers of the GOP race have noted that John McCain has done very well this primary season in the so-called Blue States, those states that tend to go Democratic in the general elections. So i took a deeper look at that.

First, i made a prediction for each state, as to whether it would be blue or red this year. I based that primarily on what that state has done in the past 5 presidential elections (limited to 5 because that information was readily available at Yahoo's election dashboard.

Then, i compared the vote totals in each primary state thus far, McCain vs. Huckabee. Granted, most of those contests were not essentially head-to-head, and so the votes are clouded by votes for Thompson, Romney, et al. I then extrapolated those vote percentages to a force-fit total of 100% for the two candidates. For example, if McCain got 30% in state X, while Huckabee got 20%, then i adjusted that to 60-40 in favor of McCain.

The final step was to weight those respective state voting %s by the electoral votes assigned to each state. We couldn't take the raw votes because some states had caucuses, which have a much lower # of votes compared to regular primaries.

Result? In blue-states, McCain has had a 3-1 advantage over Huckabee. Domination. But domination in states where it won't matter. Those states are going to ultimately vote for Obama or Clinton over McCain. In red-states, McCain's lead narrows dramatically to only 54-46. Compare that to the results of the last 8 Democratic contests, where Obama has crushed Clinton 65-35 on average.

So what does this mean? I suppose if one believed that John McCain could turn historically blue states red, then this analysis would be encouraging for the GOP. If we were on a history arc where the trend was towards the GOP, rather than away from it, nominating a moderate Republican who could transform states into new electoral votes might be a good strategy. But we're on the opposite arc right now. Can the GOP even hold its base states this year with John McCain? I would still bet yes, but i'd be nervous if i were Mike Duncan.

I do still firmly believe that Governor Huckabee would easily hold the base-states, and with a half-year in the public spotlight, with the opportunity to hold debates, with the extra time for Obamamania to lose its luster, he could also hold the line just enough for a GOP victory in November. It doesn't look like we'll ever get the chance to prove that yea or nay.