California Debate

The debate was structured to buy into the fiction that this is only a two-man race between Governor Romney and Senator McCain, but if I have one hope coming form it, it would be that everyone could hear Governor Huckabee's response to the final question of the night. When each candidate was asked if Ronald Reagan would have endorsed them for President, Mike said:

I think it would be incredibly presumptuous and even arrogant for me to try to suggest what Ronald Reagan would do, that he would endorse any of us against the others.

Let me just say this, I'm not going to pretend he would endorse me. I wish he would. I would love that, but I endorse him, and I'm going to tell you why.

It wasn't just his specific policies, but Ronald Reagan was something more than just a policy wonk. He was a man who loved this country, and he inspired this country to believe in itself again.

What made Ronald Reagan a great president was not just the intricacies of his policies, though they were good policies. It was that he loved America and saw it as a good nation and a great nation because of the greatness of its people.

And if we can recapture that, that's when we recapture the Reagan spirit. It's that spirit that has a can-do attitude about America's futures and that makes us love our country whether we're Democrats or Republicans. And that's what I believe Ronald Reagan did -- he brought this country back together and made us believe in ourselves.

And whether he believes in us, I hope we still believe in those things which made him a great leader and a great American.

When I can find some video of it, I'll add it. The best part was that this was the very last statement made by any of the candidates in the debate.

The Reports of Huckabee's (Political) Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.

Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.

For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).

Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.

Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.

I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.

The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).

Arkansas CEOs: Look Past "Shallow Rhetoric"

Six corporate leaders based in Arkansas today encouraged voters to "look past the shallow rhetoric of yet another campaign season" and truly check out the stellar record of leadership from Governor Huckabee in their state.

Here's the entire statement (emphasis added)...

Columbia, SC - Today, the following businessmen from Arkansas released a statement in support of former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee: Scott T. Ford, President and CEO, Alltel Corporation; Warren A. Stephens, President and CEO, Stephens Inc.; Madison Murphy, Former Chairman, Murphy Oil Corporation; John Tyson, Chairman of the Board, Tyson Foods, Inc; and French Hill, Chairman and CEO, Delta Trust and Banking Corporation:

"We are a traditionally bi-partisan group of executives of several of the largest corporations headquartered in the State of Arkansas, each with considerable exposure to the Administration of Governor Mike Huckabee. Of late, Governor Huckabee has attracted what we believe to be unwarranted criticism regarding his business record."

"Our experience with Governor Huckabee indicates that he not only values greatly the freedoms of religion and liberty, but of the free market as well. He is an atypical leader who garnered the respect of not only the professional business community but of the working men and women across our State as well."

"When he became our Governor, he inherited our long sub-standard education system, infrastructure, and regulatory climate. Under his leadership, we were able to grow our businesses, increase our employment, reduce our litigation exposure and enjoy, along with all of our fellow Arkansans, a healthier economy, improved schools, updated highways, and new healthcare delivery facilities."

"In our support of Governor Huckabee's truly conservative, small government business outlook and his pragmatic, yet compassionate style of governing, we invite you to look past the shallow rhetoric of yet another campaign season to see what we have experienced first hand - that with the right political leadership in place, businesses and citizens can jointly prosper and as they do, they contribute so much more to the economic and societal fabric of a community than simply tax revenues."

Hometown Paper Comes Through

Growing up in Dallas, the premier (and only surviving) newspaper was the Dallas Morning News. Today, they endorsed Mike Huckabee for the GOP nomination for President. It's a nice write-up, with a great conclusion:

Plain-spoken and eloquent, Mr. Huckabee strikes us as decent, principled and empathetic to the views and concerns of others – an antidote to the power-mad partisanship that has led U.S. politics to a dispiriting standstill.

"I'm a conservative," he likes to say. "I'm just not mad about it." Along those lines, what sold us on Mr. Huckabee is a sense that of all the Republicans, he is the change agent the nation most needs...

America needs a clean break from the bitter politics of the recent past. From the right, Mike Huckabee, a progressive conservative with a pastor's heart, can deliver.

Chuck Norris Approved

Mike Huckabee revealed his first campaign ad this morning during his interview on Fox. And it's a doozy. Check it out...



Not what you'd expect from the typical campaign, huh? And that's what i like about it. From a marketing (not political) perspective, it is clearly designed to build awareness, the proper approach for Huckabee at this point. Even on the Fox Sunday show, the sort of TV program made for the highly involved, they introduced the segment with (paraphrasing) "just who is this guy?". This ad will draw interest, create conversation and buzz, and drive interested folks to the website. I doubt it runs all the often as a paid TV ad, but will get plenty of free PR, and will be a viral hit on the web.

And then Mike will follow (quickly) with serious issue-oriented ads, or ads that highlight his engaging personality.

Entering a New Phase

On the heels of Huckabee's big weekend (let's call it a long 3-day weekend), when he rocked the house at the "value voters'" Washington Briefing and knocked out the other GOP candidates with a whopping 51% of the onsite vote, and when Mike excelled again in a GOP debate, the Huckabee campaign is entering new territory. It's the terrain of a top tier candidate, part of the Big 5 as the GOP race only gets more muddled over time.

We should expect a ramp-up in attacks, mostly from the blogosphere sniping at Mike's perceived weaknesses. More than a decade as governor provides plenty of fodder for twisting the record. I'll grant that there are a few valid criticisms; it's just that it never stops there. And we may even see some attack ads in Iowa from the Romney campaign or affiliated groups.

It will be interesting to see how the Huckabee crew handles the increased scrutiny. They have been unfailingly nice thus far (perhaps except for the snarky comments about how depressing it must be to have raised all that dough with little to show for it). And on the Huckabee blogs and discussion forums, the Huckabeelievers are almost uniformly polite and cheery folk. Are we prepared for the gloves-off freak show?

P.S. Did we finally get that tipping point in the Chuck Norris endorsement? I was amazed at the press coverage that got. I even had a not-politically-involved co-worker pop into my office Monday afternoon to see if i had heard the news. I have not revealed my Huckabee fandom at work, so that's not why he stopped by. He's just the sort of guy who gets restless or bored and wants to share whatever the zeitgeist of the moment is, whether it be some sports headline or a natural disaster or what have you. Norris on Huckabee fit the bill.

By the way, if you scoff at the notion of Walker Texas Ranger weighing in on politics, well, that was my initial reaction, too. But read the link above. Chuck lays out a detailed, cogent case for our guy Huckabee.

A Big Day

A red-letter day for the Huckabee campaign, primarily from the fantastic poll results from Iowa, released by noted pollsters Rasmussen. Huckabee has surged to 18%, a nip behind the already-fading Thompson (19%), and within guitar-shredding distance of Romney (25%).

To have reached this level of support with almost no money, and no L&O reruns, is a great testament to the campaign and the candidate himself.

The 2nd piece of news today was a column from Dick Morris, who chronicles the field with praise for Huckabee. Morris said he was "amazed" (in a good way) with Huckabee's approach to issues, calling him a "refreshing change" in contrast to Bill Clinton. Here are some of the other adjectives Morris used to describe Mike:

• articulate
• principled
• knowledgeable
• witty
• sincere
• dedicated
• courageous

Finally, i'd like to call attention to a nice post from Justin in Oklahoma. He outlines 4 areas where he expects Huckabee to get more criticism as he ascends in the polls. You can already see the attacks starting.

3 Views from First Things

One of my favorite magazines is First Things. It bills itself as a "Journal of Religion, Culture, and Public Life". In their November issue, the magazine presents 3 short essays about the 2008 election. The first, by Village Voice writer Nat Hentoff, focuses on pro-life issues. The third, by FT editor Joseph Bottom, reviews the depressing litany (his view) of candidates, and is annoyingly dismissive of Mike Huckabee.

But i call your attention to the middle essay, by John J. DiIulio Jr., who served as the first Director of the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives. DiIulio looks at the candidates through the lens of economic justice. Who is best equipped to lead the country economically, not merely for the sake of fattening already-fat wallets, but for taking care of all of America's citizens? He concludes that Mike Huckabee is the best of the GOP candidates.

P.S. I am linking, not excerpting, from the columns, due to my confusion over First Thing's copyright policy. Don't want to step on their toes. To find Di Iulio's essay, you'll have to scroll about halfway down the link.