Post-Iowa Viewpoints

Some of the better or more interesting commentary i ran across about Huckabee's victory in Iowa.

Joshua Trevino has some very good advice for the Huckabee team.
K Street Mole talks about the Medved and Brooks articles
One Mom - media gets it wrong
The Dunn Report - this site is new to me; has a nice review of Mike's "Seven Hopes"
David Brooks with Two Earthquakes - too good not to link directly
The 7-10 digests the GOP results

And i'll close with the video of Mike's outstanding victory speech.

#1 and still underrated

What an exciting week! Congratulations to the Mike Huckabee campaign for their resounding victory in the Iowa caucus on Thursday night. Huckabee polled over 40,000 votes for 34.4%, well above 2nd-place Mitt Romney, who got fewer than 30,000 votes, or 25.2%. The table below shows how the candidates ranked in each county. Mike finished first or second in 98 of the 99 counties.

Rank	Huckabee	Romney	Thompson	McCain	Paul	Giuliani	Hunter	Tancredo
1	74	24	0	0	1	0	0	0
2	24	53	11	7	4	0	0	0
3	1	20	50	18	12	0	0	0
4	0	1	26	52	23	0	0	0
5	0	1	12	22	58	1	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	1	93	9	0
7	0	0	0	0	0	5	89	21
8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	78
avg	1.3	2.0	3.4	3.9	4.4	6.0	6.9	7.8

And looking at the entrance poll numbers, we find that Huckabee finished first among…

• Women (40%) and Men (29)
  
• All Age groups
  
  • Ages 17-29 (40)
    
  • Ages 30-44 (39)
    
  • Ages 45-64 (31)
    
  • Ages 65+ (30)
    
• Those who decided in the last month or before
  
• Those who decided on caucus day
  
• Those who strongly favor their candidate
  
• No matter the choice for the most important problem facing the country
  
  • Illegal immigration
    
  • War in Iraq
    
  • The economy
    
  • Terrorism
    
• Republicans (as opposed to a small group of self-identified independents, who went for Paul)
  
• Self-described as "very conservative"
  
• Self-described as "conservative"
  
• All views of the Bush administration except for "angry" (from "enthusiastic" to "dissatisfied")
  
• Family incomes below $100,000 (Romney nudged ahead on the rich folks)
  
• Suburbanites, small towners, and country folk
  
• Central Iowa, East Iowa, and West Iowa (all 3 regions)
  

Much has already been made about the evangelical vote. Fully 60% of GOP caucus goers described themselves as evangelical or born-again, and they went heavily for Huckabee, as expected. Some pundits are pooh-poohing the Iowa victory on the idea that other states don't have as many born-agains. But Barna Research consistently finds that 35-45% of American adults can be classified as born-again. Based on self-descriptions, like the Iowa polls, Barna finds that 45% call themselves born-again. Splitting that into the two major parties, Barna estimates that 51% of Republicans are born-again. Evangelicals trend GOP by a 59-16 margin. So it's not a stretch by any means that other states would trend similarly to Iowa in their GOP primaries. For example, South Carolina is decidedly more evangelical than is Iowa.

I do agree with the observation that Huckabee must deepen his appeal to non-evangelicals, and i'm confident that he can do just that. His platform of seeking energy independence, of significant pro-growth tax reform, of meaningful immigration reform, of novel education ideas like promoting arts & music education, of a focus on preventative health care, of understanding the nature of our fight against Islamic extremists, of defense of 2^nd Amendment rights – all these are coalition-building issues that go well beyond religious affiliation. Even more, Huckabee's outstanding ability to communicate, to connect with average Americans transcends religion.

Counting the Delegates

I've been analyzing the caucus and primary schedule through February 5^th, the so-called Super Tuesday, attempting to apportion the GOP delegates. If my math and sources are correct, there are just over 1300 delegates available in the 29 states. Most pundits and prognosticators talk about who's going to "win" a given state, but what goes unsaid is that delegates in most states are assigned proportionally. Most states are not winner-take-all. I suspect most of the winning talk is geared around the notion of momentum. In a normal year, momentum is pretty important, and it won't be without merit this year, but do not expect a coalescing around a single candidate. This thing is going to remain fractured, with at least 2 viable candidates going into the convention. That hasn't happened in so long that most observers dismiss it out of hand, but when you count up the delegates, it's hard to see it any other way.

If a state is not winner-take-all, it will generally apportion its delegates by primary vote portions, statewide and/or by congressional district. A few have thresholds, where a candidate needs to break a certain barrier (say, 10% or 20%) to get any delegates. The WTA states are (with delegate counts): New York (101), Connecticut (30), Delaware (18), Arizona (53), Utah (36), and Missouri (58). Besides the home-state wins in NY/AZ/UT (I'm counting Utah as a home state for Romney), I predict that Rudy Giuliani will take CT (solid) and DE (iffy) and that Mike Huckabee will take Missouri. (On further research, it appears that some other states have changed their rules to be WTA. I updated the delegate table below, but not this paragraph.)

Another aspect to keep in mind is that the GOP has awarded bonus delegates to states with Republican governors, senators, and further representation. That gives a boost to the delegate counts in Southern states, a strength for Huckabee. And the GOP has penalized those states holding primaries before Feb 5^th, impacting Michigan, New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Carolina, and Florida. Those states will have their delegate counts cut IN HALF.

Here's how I see the rest of the first 29 states going. I have a detailed spreadsheet backing this up, but I'm not going to post it all. So I'll follow convention and list my predicted winners. And by winners, I mean the candidate that I expect to receive the most delegates from a given state.

Candidate		# States Won	List of States Won
Mike Huckabee		10	IA, SC, AL, AR, GA, MO, MT, ND, OK, WV
Rudy Giuliani		7	FL, CA, CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Mitt Romney		6	MI, NV, ME, CO, UT, MA
John McCain		4	NH, WY, AZ, MN
Fred Thompson		1	TN
Ron Paul		1 (throwing a bone)	AK

And here are my projected delegate counts through Feb 5^th, not including the national superdelegates.

Candidate	# Delegates
Mike Huckabee	423
Rudy Giuliani	359
Mitt Romney	194
John McCain	205
Ron Paul (and others)	73
Fred Thompson	59

I'll check back after Iowa & New Hampshire to take a look at the post-Feb 5^th primaries. Will we get more clarity by then? Well, if my prognostications are close to correct, Fred Thompson will not be in the race by mid-February, and I believe he'll endorse fellow Senator John McCain. Mitt Romney will have a difficult decision to make. Does he continue spending his fortune when he may be in 4^th place? If we are truly heading to a fractured convention, then he might be smart to stay in the race, and position himself as a compromise candidate (a tough sell given his incessant attacks on Huckabee and McCain, and the notion by then that McCain is the better compromise candidate).

In fact, I'll go on the record right now that the GOP candidate will be either Mike Huckabee (on the 2^nd ballot) or John McCain (on a later ballot after intense backroom wrangling, and with Huckabee as his VP). Wow.

Up to 21% in Iowa!

New Iowa poll just released by CBS News has Mike Huckabee at 21%, trailing Romney at 27%. This 6 point gap is the smallest lead for Romney in some time there. His personally contributed fortune in media buys isn't doing the trick. Well, it got him to this point, but it's looking more and more like it won't be enough to fool the savvy Iowans.

In the same poll, Dead-Fred is sinking like a geode (the state rock of Iowa, and appropriate in that there's no way to tell what's inside a geode until you crack it open), falling into single digits.

There's more to the poll that is quite interesting. I hope to find time later to dive into it.

A Big Day

A red-letter day for the Huckabee campaign, primarily from the fantastic poll results from Iowa, released by noted pollsters Rasmussen. Huckabee has surged to 18%, a nip behind the already-fading Thompson (19%), and within guitar-shredding distance of Romney (25%).

To have reached this level of support with almost no money, and no L&O reruns, is a great testament to the campaign and the candidate himself.

The 2nd piece of news today was a column from Dick Morris, who chronicles the field with praise for Huckabee. Morris said he was "amazed" (in a good way) with Huckabee's approach to issues, calling him a "refreshing change" in contrast to Bill Clinton. Here are some of the other adjectives Morris used to describe Mike:

• articulate
• principled
• knowledgeable
• witty
• sincere
• dedicated
• courageous

Finally, i'd like to call attention to a nice post from Justin in Oklahoma. He outlines 4 areas where he expects Huckabee to get more criticism as he ascends in the polls. You can already see the attacks starting.

Deeper Dive into Iowa

Looking deeper into the numbers made available at the Des Moines Register for their presidential poll of likely Iowa caucus attendees, with particular attention to what they mean for Mike.

Ruled Out / Might Consider
One interesting question asked if voters had ruled out any candidates, or if they would consider others besides their top choice(s). Not a surprise that the #1 GOP candidate in the Ruled Out category is Ron Paul. Now, I admire Dr. Paul and wish we had a few score more of him in the Congress, but he is not made for POTUS. I don't reject him (my own version of ruled out) because of so-called "electability" (we Huckabee supporters chafe at that dismissal ourselves, for the time being), but because i don't see him as Presidential material, as a leader of all America. In this poll, fully 71% of GOP voters have ruled out Dr. Paul. Businessman (why?) John Cox and Alan Keys (double why?) aren't far behind, with scores in the 60s.

As i read these numbers, 3 candidates have the best chance to move up in the polls. Romney is one, a testament to his current strength in Iowa. Not only does he consistently lead the polls, but he could still increase that lead, as folks are open to him. Another is Fred Thompson, which i attribute to his recent entry into the race. Iowans are fair enough to give him a chance to define his candidacy (beyond golf carts). Whether Fred vaults up or declines is up to his skills as a campaigner. And finally, the 3rd candidate is our own Mike Huckabee. Only 36% have ruled him out, and 49% are open for further consideration as they learn more. That can only be good news for Mike, as he has demonstrated the ability to win over voters once they get to know him.

Truly the Best
Another poll question asks which candidate would make the best President, taking the electability question out of play. This is quite interesting to me, as Romney's support plunges from 29% who have him as their top choice, to only 20% who believe he's actually the best candidate. I surmise this is a picture of electability, a coalescence around a front-runner. Likewise, Big Fred's support is quite weak, as he drops from 18% to only 12%, only 4th place among GOP candidates. This is an expression of hope (sorry to use that word), but i believe it's false hope. Huckabee finishes 3rd on this question, behind Giuliani, with 13%, a shade higher than his 12% first-choice total.

This all bodes well for Mike. The opportunity is right there for the taking. If he can convince the voters that he can win the general election, he can siphon off 3 points from both Mitt and Fred. This is a classic case of a trend needing a tipping point.

Age & Gender
Among republican women, Romney has a commanding lead, at 33%. But Huckabee is 2nd at 14%. Unsure/Uncommitted is 3rd at 13%. Among republican men, Romney also leads with 27%, and Thompson is not far behind at 22%. Huckabee is 4th with 11%. This seems clear to me that Mike should target Romney weaknesses (flip-flopping) with women voters, and Thompson's weaknesses (where do i begin?) with men. If he can figure out how to target his messages accordingly, he could make some inroads. I'm not a campaign strategist by any means, but a good media consultant should be able to figure something out.

Age-wise, Mike is tied with Rudy for 2nd among age 18-44 (a curious bracketing, as there would seem to be little in common with a college voter and someone my age - early 40s). Giuliani gets a huge jump, at Huckabee's expense to a large extent, among ages 45-64. I have no idea what to make of that. But it's better, at this stage, to show well among the young, if you had to pick only one demographic, as the young are normally the early adopters.

Conclusion
That all may be too much info for you, but i see many things here which are good signs for the Huckabee campaign. There's still plenty of work ahead, and this is just one state, but i'm encouraged.

New Iowa Poll Released

On the heels of his breakthrough 2nd place finish in the Ames Straw Poll, Mike Huckabee has to be also pleased with his showing in the latest poll in Iowa, conducted by the Des Moines Register. This is their first major poll since May, and it's interesting to compare the the change in results from May to October.

Fred Thompson has the biggest jump, but that's because he wasn't included in the May poll. He comes in at 18% this time, good for a 2nd place showing. Mitt Romney still holds a nice lead, holding steady at 29% (vs. 30% in May). His personally contributed millions have worked.

But our man Huckabee has vaulted to 3rd place, ahead of McCain (not much of a surprise), but also ahead of Giuliani (that's big news). Huckabee comes in at 12%, fully 3 times higher than he registered in May (4%). By contrast, Giuliani is plunging, from 17% to 11%. McCain has plummeted from 18% to 7%, a sign of his campaign's struggles.

These results are not a big shock to Huckabee supporters. We have been saying that once people get to hear Huckabee, and compare his views and comportment to those of the rest of the field, he will surge. Even on a shoestring budget, Huckabee's message is resonating, and the wave is building.

More later (son has a baseball game)