Expanding the Base

Exit poll after exit poll has told the same story for Governor Huckabee. So far, he's been a one-trick pony, capturing primarily the born-again vote. Of course, that's his political brand, and it's a strong one. And, given that fully 45% of Americans adults call themselves evangelical and/or born-again, it's not a bad place to build a campaign, particularly in the GOP side. But it's a foundation only, not a livable house. To build an electoral house, the Governor must expand his base of support beyond born-agains. I say this as one of those 45%.

It would one thing if Huckabee could garner a near-unanimous tally among evangelicals, like Mitt Romney captured Mormons in Nevada yesterday. Romney got 94% of the Mormon vote yesterday! That's astounding. And if that had been evangelicals for Huckabee, you would have seen garment-rending among the media. Theocracy! Theocracy! Theocracy! But i digress.

Some suggestions…

• STOP the God & Constitution rhetoric. I suspect this one comment hurt Huckabee way more than has been measured, and way more than anything he has said before. It doesn't really matter what nuance he meant. Given voter suspicions already, this totally fed into those fears. I know, and most of my readers know, that he was merely talking about the two parts of his platform that call for Constitutional amendments – protecting unborn children and the sanctity of marriage – and why it's ok to pursue amendments. But he has to talk about those things in Constitutional terms, and saying it is what God wants doesn't cut it. There are plenty of reasons to stand up for innocent children in the womb that don't require Christian Identity language. A purely God-approach to public-square arguments is more likely to undermine the cause than to advance it. It pains me to say this, but i believe it's true.
  
• STOP preaching on Sunday mornings. I know some Huckabee supporters will blanch at this point. I personally think it's great that he goes into a church and preaches the gospel, as opposed to the typical politician who makes a barely-concealed stump speech. But the rules for Huckabee now are different, presuming he wants to become President. Alternatively, keep making the appearances, but adjust the message. You don't have to avoid God-talk here, but it would make more sense to deliver a strong message with broader appeal. Preach about ministering to the poor and needy. Preach about the fruit of the Spirit. But the current approach of talking about Christians winning in the end and what-not is counter-productive in the context of the election. It reminds me of Gene Simmons on Celebrity Apprentice, with the nose-thumbing of i'm going to do what i want, i don't care what the experts say, fire me if you wish. I guess that's great if you want to just be on TV, but not if you're actually interested in winning the race you're in.
  
• Reach out to a conservative group like Heritage Foundation or CATO. Make a speech; write an article like the one i posted on Friday. You have a lot of good things to talk about.
  
• Tighten up your message when you get free media. Enough of the aw-shucks quips about flak and hunter-targets and hit-dogs. If you're asked about taxes, say simply: In Arkansas, our economy grew faster than the national average, we moved from a large budget deficit to an even larger budget surplus, we made vast improvements in roads & education, we made government work again, and we did it all with a tax burden BELOW the national average. If you are asked a God question, say simply: i believe firmly in the founders' view of the separation of church & state, and of religious freedom as embedded in our Constitution. Our goal is to make American a better place, and all viewpoints, whether from the religious or non-religious, are welcome in the debate about what that means. If Fred Thompson tries to put you in the Blame America First crowd, explode back at him with a "How dare you question my patriotism, Senator!"
  
• Insist that the media refer to you as Governor Huckabee, which is the proper salutation and etiquette, and not merely as a Baptist preacher.
  

Why this is important

Governor Huckabee's message and platform should have broader appeal beyond born-agains. He should be a candidate who appeals to prolife Catholics, to conservatives & moderates concerned about our stewardship of the environment, to conservatives who question whether government is approaching the economy in the right way, to other non-traditional constituencies. But those inclined to consider him are turned off by the continued Christian Identity politics. They aren't going to understand little phrases that are innocuous to evangelicals, but troubling for those not in the club. It makes it easy for them to ignore him in the voting booth. I bet there are even legions of FairTax fans that are queasy. But it doesn't have to be that way. This is still a winnable election.

Interview Questions

The Huckabee website has a link for bloggers to submit a request for interview. Here's what i would ask…

1. If you are familiar with Christian Just War Theory, how would you assess our current conflict in Iraq in those terms?
   
2. How do you work through which beliefs you hold that should be pursued in public policy, versus those that are better suited for private (or, non-public) pursuit? Are there any general philosophies of government that work well for you to make those calls? (For example, a person might believe that divorce is, more frequently than not, missing the mark spiritually, yet not consider it a problem best solved by prescriptive law.)
   
3. One of the reasons i started this particular blog (and called it what i did) was my utter dissatisfaction with our current process of selecting our political leaders, where it tends to be all about name recognition and the ability to raise mega-millions two years in advance. In most seasons, an underfunded, relatively unknown, but politically talented candidate like you goes nowhere. Any suggestions on how we keep the American political dream alive, where any kid can become president, and, perhaps more importantly, ensure that we don't devolve into a plutocracy?
   
4. As you reflect on your decade-plus tenure leading the state of Arkansas, what do you consider you greatest accomplishment there? Anything you'd do differently (other than the well-hashed case of Wayne DuMond)? What lessons would you take from the Governor's Mansion to the White House (by the way, don't you love it that governors get mansions, while the president just gets a house)?
   
5. One of the criticisms you received from your Arkansas detractors was that you are "thin-skinned". I have to say, I haven't seen that at all during this campaign. Quite the opposite, in fact. Was this ever a fair criticism, and if so, how have you progressed?
   
6. A presidential campaign takes you all over America, meeting tons of ordinary Americans. What have you learned about America in this process so far? What goes under-reported by the media about our country?
   
7. You have made two quite bold proposals in your platform. One, to abolish the IRS and its associated taxes, replacing it with the innovative FairTax. And two, to achieve energy independence by the end of your 2^nd term. Each idea would be worthy of an extended interview by themselves (which i would be glad to conduct someday). But my question now is this: how do you counter or handle the "nattering nabobs of negativity" (to borrow Safire's phrase) who scoff that such things cannot be done?
   
8. There has naturally been a lot of talk of Reagan in this campaign. For me, he is one of the 3 pillars of Republican presidents, the other two being the two guys on Mt. Rushmore – Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt. What do you take from Lincoln and Roosevelt, in terms of your political goals and philosophy, and your leadership style?
   
9. Another potshot taken at you is that you wouldn't fare well in the general election. I don't get that one either. I have analyzed the Pew Political Typologies and their historical voting patterns, and find that you are the MOST electable GOP candidate, due to your ability to hold social conservatives, and pull in key swing groups such as the so-called Upbeats, Pro-Government Conservatives, and Disaffecteds. Take a look at my analysis. Was this intentional, or a natural consequence of meeting the people where they are?
   
10. Another influential read for me has been the Weekly Standard article called "The Party of Sam's Club" (soon to be expanded into a book called Grand New Party). Are you familiar with it, and if so, has it influenced your campaign at all?

#1 and still underrated

What an exciting week! Congratulations to the Mike Huckabee campaign for their resounding victory in the Iowa caucus on Thursday night. Huckabee polled over 40,000 votes for 34.4%, well above 2nd-place Mitt Romney, who got fewer than 30,000 votes, or 25.2%. The table below shows how the candidates ranked in each county. Mike finished first or second in 98 of the 99 counties.

Rank	Huckabee	Romney	Thompson	McCain	Paul	Giuliani	Hunter	Tancredo
1	74	24	0	0	1	0	0	0
2	24	53	11	7	4	0	0	0
3	1	20	50	18	12	0	0	0
4	0	1	26	52	23	0	0	0
5	0	1	12	22	58	1	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	1	93	9	0
7	0	0	0	0	0	5	89	21
8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	78
avg	1.3	2.0	3.4	3.9	4.4	6.0	6.9	7.8

And looking at the entrance poll numbers, we find that Huckabee finished first among…

• Women (40%) and Men (29)
  
• All Age groups
  
  • Ages 17-29 (40)
    
  • Ages 30-44 (39)
    
  • Ages 45-64 (31)
    
  • Ages 65+ (30)
    
• Those who decided in the last month or before
  
• Those who decided on caucus day
  
• Those who strongly favor their candidate
  
• No matter the choice for the most important problem facing the country
  
  • Illegal immigration
    
  • War in Iraq
    
  • The economy
    
  • Terrorism
    
• Republicans (as opposed to a small group of self-identified independents, who went for Paul)
  
• Self-described as "very conservative"
  
• Self-described as "conservative"
  
• All views of the Bush administration except for "angry" (from "enthusiastic" to "dissatisfied")
  
• Family incomes below $100,000 (Romney nudged ahead on the rich folks)
  
• Suburbanites, small towners, and country folk
  
• Central Iowa, East Iowa, and West Iowa (all 3 regions)
  

Much has already been made about the evangelical vote. Fully 60% of GOP caucus goers described themselves as evangelical or born-again, and they went heavily for Huckabee, as expected. Some pundits are pooh-poohing the Iowa victory on the idea that other states don't have as many born-agains. But Barna Research consistently finds that 35-45% of American adults can be classified as born-again. Based on self-descriptions, like the Iowa polls, Barna finds that 45% call themselves born-again. Splitting that into the two major parties, Barna estimates that 51% of Republicans are born-again. Evangelicals trend GOP by a 59-16 margin. So it's not a stretch by any means that other states would trend similarly to Iowa in their GOP primaries. For example, South Carolina is decidedly more evangelical than is Iowa.

I do agree with the observation that Huckabee must deepen his appeal to non-evangelicals, and i'm confident that he can do just that. His platform of seeking energy independence, of significant pro-growth tax reform, of meaningful immigration reform, of novel education ideas like promoting arts & music education, of a focus on preventative health care, of understanding the nature of our fight against Islamic extremists, of defense of 2^nd Amendment rights – all these are coalition-building issues that go well beyond religious affiliation. Even more, Huckabee's outstanding ability to communicate, to connect with average Americans transcends religion.

Audacious!

It was the most audacious event in world history. God, creator of the universe, comes to earth in the form of one of his loftiest creations. Entering the world in the shared and natural humility of childbirth. God as man, with a wrinkled crying face, a crown of mussed hair topping a misshapen head, robed in delivery goo. It was the coming of Christ.

We now celebrate this audacious event with our culture's most involved holiday which we call Christmas. The coming of Christ. The gathering of Christ. As Irenaeus put it almost 2000 years ago, "God became man so that we could become divine." (Irenaeus also said one of my all-time favorite quotes: "The glory of God is man fully alive.")

I like how this one blogger put it.

Christmas is a celebration of three comings of Christ. First, we celebrate the historical coming of Christ. The readings in the Church proclaim the story of Jesus' birth to a young virgin. We are reminded of his lineage, the conditions of his birth in the poverty of a manger, the angelic proclamation to the shepherds, his presentation at the temple, and the visit of the three wise men. The stories are told in the opening chapters of the gospels of Matthew and Luke for those who would like to read the narratives on their own.

Second, we celebrate the presence of Christ come among us today. Christians believe that the Spirit of God is always active in the world, gently guiding us and prodding us toward conversion. Nothing happens without a reason. There is not a stray molecule anywhere in the universe. Christmas is a celebration of God coming among us today! The Church often uses sacraments and symbols as signs of grace, and people are often aware of the power of the Spirit present in these activities. However, God's grace surrounds us all the time. Christmas celebrates God’s coming into our everyday lives - our work, our family, and our friendships.

Third, we celebrate the hope for the day when Christ will come in glory to gather the saints. One day, all who are being saved will be with the Lord in paradise. Whether we come to the Lord through natural death, or whether the Lord will come to us at the end of the world, Christians look forward to eternity with God. This will be our greatest happiness! As children anxiously await the arrival of Santa Claus, the Christian waits in joyful hope for eternity with our God!

Huckabee

So what does all this have to do with Mike Huckabee? Well, Mike had the human audacity to actually mention Christ when speaking of Christmas, as he attempted to set politics aside during the Christmas season, in a Christmas card ad that is all the buzz.

From Pastorate to Presidency

A very nice article from the Concord (NH) Monitor about Huckabee's time in the pastorate in Arkansas. Highlighting some quotes from the article. Unless noted otherwise, the quotes are from the article's author...

• He could deliver a heavy moral message in such a light, folksy way that you didn't even notice the proselytizing. He remembered everyone's name. And he had a way of winning support for his good ideas by making the deacons think the ideas were their own.
• Huckabee says he started each elementary school year with two pairs of blue jeans; by the summer, they'd be cut into shorts. (I included this one because it reminded me of my roots. It's be nice to have a leader with a humble upbringing.)
• He was very serious about his faith, but he was also a fun guy to be around. He was never a religious stick in the mud. -- from Mike's college freshman roommate
• We used to sit in the dorm room and talk about what we wanted to do, around our popcorn popper. [Mike] said, 'What I'd like to do is help Christian people get involved in making our nation better.' - ibid
• If you could have a perfect pastor, he comes as close as anybody. He rejuvenated the church. He blew the back doors, really, off the church. -- from the church historian of Mike's church in Texarkana
• He had the vision, but you've got to sell the vision. And he was able to do that. People caught on and said, 'This is a great idea! This is my idea!' If you use a stick, the horse is going to kick you with its hooves. (Huckabee) was very good with the carrot approach in selling (his ideas). -- from a Texarkana congregant
• Too many people seemed unconcerned about how many marriages were salvaged, how many kids got off drugs, or how many teen pregnancies were prevented. Rather, the chief concerns seemed to be whether the menus for Wednesday night dinners were appetizing, what color the softball jerseys would be, how loud some guest musicians might sing, whether the coffeepot was ready in the Sunday school building, and whether there were paper towels in the women's rest room. -- from Mike himself, and a good summation of my own frustrations with many Baptist churches

Can a Pastor Be President?

Mike Huckabee wears the badge of his last name proudly, despite the inane criticism of it recently. He's also faced criticism from some about the prospect of a Baptist pastor becoming the President. But in this article from the Religion News Service, and published in today's Winston-Salem Journal, Mike makes a cogent case that his minister experience is quite helpful, if not directly pertinent, to the job of POTUS. It, too, is a badge to trumpet, not hide.

Here's the money quote...
“I think it’s the greatest preparation that a person can have for public service. There’s not any social pathology that I couldn’t put a name and a face to. Somebody says they want to talk about the issue of the elderly, I’ve dealt with those folks. I’ve dealt with a 14-year-old girl who’s pregnant and hasn’t told her parents yet. I’ve talked to the young couple who’s head over heels in debt. ... I think it gives you a real perspective about people and what they’re going through that’s important.”

Huckabeelievers will certainly want to read the entire article. If you find the link dead (not sure how long the newspaper will keep it live), add a comment, and i'll come back and post some more of it.

P.S. The United States has already had one pastor become President. James Garfield. Let's pray our guy has a happier ending.