Romney Should Drop Out

The conventional wisdom from the meanstream media (stole that from another poster at Huck's Army) is that the GOP race is down to two people – McCain vs. Romney. Mitt, of course, has seized on this theme and has asserted that a vote for Governor Huckabee is a vote for John McCain. If this is truly to become a two-man race, and the goal is to defeat the momentum-laden McCain (assuming last night's woeful performance in the debate didn't stop his momentum in its tracks), then the best thing to do is coalesce around the most conservative candidate, the most electable candidate, the candidate with the most upside. That candidate is not Mitt Romney; it's Mike Huckabee.

Most Conservative

Mitt likes to proclaim himself the standard-bearer on the 3-legged stool of conservatism, with the 3 legs being social, fiscal, and national security issues. Like he triumphantly proclaimed last night that of course Ronald Reagan would endorse him. But just because i can slap on a glove and cleats doesn't mean you should put me in at shortstop. Is Mitt Romney the Sidd Finch of politics? Is there any there there?

Consider the 3 leg formulation.

• Social – even if we believe that Romney has finally hit his conservative political puberty and has truly converted to the prolife position (at most it's a position with him, not a cause) and other social conservative bona fides, he would still lag far behind Governor Huckabee's convictions, record, and prospects on this leg. A big win for Huckabee
  
• National Security – Like almost all governors, you'll find little directly relevant foreign policy experience for either candidate. This would turn on judgment, toughness, and leadership. I'm not impressed with Romney's CEO experience and so don't give the leadership advantage that he surely thinks he owns. I believe Huckabee has better judgment and would be tougher with aggressive regimes.
  
• Fiscal – Romney believes this is his trump card. But here's your trump card...
  

TAX FREEDOM DAY

A tax freedom day is the day in the calendar when you've worked long enough in the new year to afford to pay all your taxes. It's a sad commentary on our times, but this date is usually in April, and seems to fall later and later (see table 1 at the link) all the time. In 2007, it is estimated that the national tax freedom day was April 30th. So let's compare the records of Governors Huckabee and Romney in their respective states, looking at the Tax Freedom Day when they took office vs. when each left office.

Governor/State		TFD – Start		TFD - End	Net Effect
Huckabee / AR		April 22		April 22	Same
Romney / MA		April 21		May 6	15 days WORSE

If you don't mind working an extra two weeks for the government, then by all means believe the talking heads that Romney is the fiscal conservative.

Most Electable

I covered this in my Typologies post, showing the polling evidence that Governor Huckabee would be a better general election candidate than Romney. You can also look at the head to head polls compiled at RCP. Against Clinton, Huckabee fares 2-3 points better than Romney does. Against Obama, Huckabee also fares better than does Romney. Granted, neither candidate is polling well against those two right now, but this has been a consistent pattern – Huckabee trumps Romney. Governor Huckabee is more electable than Governor Romney, based on all the evidence we have to study.

Most Upside

Romney has had the powerful two-pronged advantage of both MONEY and MEDIA behind him, and still hasn't won a contested primary other than Michigan, which is practically home for him, given that his father was a popular governor there.

Think about it. Romney has outspent even his well-funded rivals by orders of magnitude that boggle the mind. Millions upon millions on negative ads, distortions of the records of the other candidates. He has all the power of talk radio behind him, all the conservative establishment media serving as surrogate mouthpieces for his campaign.

And what does he have to show for it? If he hasn't been able to beat McCain up until now, why would he all of sudden start doing it next Tuesday or beyond? If anyone should drop out, it should be Romney. The conservative establishment should try something else. That something else is, of course, Governor Huckabee.

The Reports of Huckabee's (Political) Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.

Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.

For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).

Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.

Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.

I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.

The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).

The FoxNews Debate

Governor Huckabee didn't seem to do himself much good in tonight's debate, but I think he didn't hurt himself too badly, either. The focus group on FoxNews seemed to think that he waffled on the first question. I wish he had been a bit more forceful and flipped Romney's contention that he had to raise fees to maintain services, but I didn't see Huckabee as waffling too much.

One woman said about Romney, "He speaks off the cuff and is very, very well-versed." I don't think she even understood that her statement was internally contradictory.

The best hope for New Hampshire is a third place finish, and currently the Governor is consistently polling in third. It will also help if McCain can hold off Romney.

Goal for NH

The New Hampshire primary offers a total of only 12 delegates, after the GOP punished the early states for going too early, and halving their delegate counts. Those dozen delegates are apportioned based on the direct vote totals in the primary, although there is a 10% threshold in place before you can get any delegates. If you fall below this 10%, even if you get 9.9% of the vote, you get nothing.

So if we go by the Real Clear Politics poll averages for NH, we find that only 3 candidates are polling in double-digits. John McCain leads the way with 32.7%, ahead of Mitt Romney at 28.1%, and Mike Huckabee at 11.4%. If the actual vote matches those averages, both McCain and Romney would get 5 delegates, and Huckabee would get 2.

For Huckabee to get 3 delegates, he would need about 16% of the vote. So let's make that our goal: 16% and 3 delegates. A solid 3rd place.

Alt scenarios... if bychance, Giuliani or Paul get up to 10% and steal a delegate, they would take it from Romney (again, presuming the vote matches the polls). If both get to 10%, that would take away a delegate both from Romney and Huckabee. To get that delegate back, Mike would need to jump only a smidge, from the 11.4% of the polls to 12%.

Do 1 or 2 delegates matter all that much? No, probably not. For my money, i would expend just enough effort in NH to get that 3rd place and at least 2 delegates, to keep the momentum alive, and focus more time on Michigan and Florida.

P.S. Did you realize that Romney picked up more delegates in Wyoming (8) than he did in Iowa (7)?

A Leader of All

Despite the punditocracy attempt to marginalize Mike Huckabee as a single constituency candidate, as merely a pastor catering to evangelicals, the governor takes a higher road and seeks to serve all Americans, as he has stated time and time again. He champions "vertical politics", as witnessed in an answer to one of the questions at the most recent Iowa debate.

It's a resonating message. To wit, in the latest Newsweek Iowa poll, Governor Huckabee draws as much support from non-evangelicals as does Mitt Romney, with the two governors tied for the lead among that group with 24% a piece. If you still think this is Pat Robertson redux, you will be surprised, as you have been until now.

Apologies: A Study in Contrast

This has been the week of apologies in the presidential races. In one example, Hillary Clinton apologized to Obama for the comments of one of her (since resigned) top staffers, who brought up Obama's drug usage.

But let's take a look at two apologies (and i use the term loosely, as you shall see) - one from Mike Huckabee, and then one from Fred Thompson.

First, Governor Huckabee personally apologized to Mitt Romney for the way his question about Mormon beliefs, as posed to a NYT reporter, had been misconstrued and blown up by the media into a big to-do. You can hear the governor discuss it in this interview on Morning Joe, about 4 minutes into the video.



That's how an honorable man does it, how a leader handles things. By all accounts, Romney was gracious and accepted the apology, as both governors hoped to move on.

Contrast that with this "apology" from Fred Thompson. An excerpt:

"We apologize for telling reporters that a BA in Biblical Studies from Ouachita Baptist University doesn’t, in fact, make Huckabee more qualified to fight the war on terror than say…Fred Thompson."

Besides being quite rude, this missive fails not only on the humor meter, but also on the truth meter. It is the typical sort of politics that turns off so many Americans. Throw out a bunch of half-truths and spin, and hope your voters aren't smart enough to see through it. It is not the best of America. We can do better.

At the youtube debate, when each candidate was permitted to air their own 30-second ads, only Fred Thompson went negative. I immediately thought, "this is the end of the Fred Thompson campaign." And repeated polls confirm that Fred is falling more out of favor every day.

• In Iowa, Fred polls in the single-digits, and i predict he'll curry fewer delegates there than does Ron Paul, of all people.
• In New Hampshire, Fred is polling at HALF the level of gadfly Paul.
• He's in single-digits in Michigan.
• He lost the lead in South Carolina, and is closer to 6th place than to first place.
• Huckabee outpolls Fred by 3-1 in Nevada.
• Fred is in single digits in Florida, where Huckabee just pulled into the lead over Giuliani.
• In fact, if you look at all the posted December polls at Real Clear Politics, you cannot find a single one, nationwide or for any single state, where Thompson is favored over Huckabee.

It seems clear to me that the people have weighed the two men, and have made their choice. One guy is positive; the other is nothing but snarky and negative. In my experience, in a contest like this, people turn negative about others when they can't think of anything positive to say about themselves.

First Place in North Carolina (and the nation)!

The Huckabee surge in the polls has been nothing short of amazing, even for this longtime supporter. The slow & steady climb hit a tipping point in the past few days, and the groundswell shows in recent polls.

In North Carolina, Huckabee garnered an incredible 33% in a poll released today. With this race still so fractured, i am stunned by this number. Mike hasn't set foot in our state in months, that i know of. This success is a result of grassroots support and the free national media exposure. As i've been saying, once people get to know Mike, they like Mike.

Contrast this poll with the same group's poll in October. Thompson led the way with 31% (he's down to 16% now). What did Huckabee get in October? Well, he wasn't even included in the poll question.

When you dive into the crosstabs, you find that Huckabee leads among voters who say that the Iraq War is one of their key issues. Also among those pegging Taxes, Economy & Jobs, Moral & Family Issues, and even Immigration. He leads with both men and women. He leads among age groups 30-45, 45-60, and 60+. He leads in every single area code.

Nationally, i find the numbers even more incredible. The daily tracking poll by Rasmussen shows Mike Huckabee in the LEAD nationally. Huck is at 20%, ahead of dropping-like-a-rock Giuliani at 17%. Two months ago today, he was at 4%.

Up to 21% in Iowa!

New Iowa poll just released by CBS News has Mike Huckabee at 21%, trailing Romney at 27%. This 6 point gap is the smallest lead for Romney in some time there. His personally contributed fortune in media buys isn't doing the trick. Well, it got him to this point, but it's looking more and more like it won't be enough to fool the savvy Iowans.

In the same poll, Dead-Fred is sinking like a geode (the state rock of Iowa, and appropriate in that there's no way to tell what's inside a geode until you crack it open), falling into single digits.

There's more to the poll that is quite interesting. I hope to find time later to dive into it.

A Big Day

A red-letter day for the Huckabee campaign, primarily from the fantastic poll results from Iowa, released by noted pollsters Rasmussen. Huckabee has surged to 18%, a nip behind the already-fading Thompson (19%), and within guitar-shredding distance of Romney (25%).

To have reached this level of support with almost no money, and no L&O reruns, is a great testament to the campaign and the candidate himself.

The 2nd piece of news today was a column from Dick Morris, who chronicles the field with praise for Huckabee. Morris said he was "amazed" (in a good way) with Huckabee's approach to issues, calling him a "refreshing change" in contrast to Bill Clinton. Here are some of the other adjectives Morris used to describe Mike:

• articulate
• principled
• knowledgeable
• witty
• sincere
• dedicated
• courageous

Finally, i'd like to call attention to a nice post from Justin in Oklahoma. He outlines 4 areas where he expects Huckabee to get more criticism as he ascends in the polls. You can already see the attacks starting.

Deeper Dive into Iowa

Looking deeper into the numbers made available at the Des Moines Register for their presidential poll of likely Iowa caucus attendees, with particular attention to what they mean for Mike.

Ruled Out / Might Consider
One interesting question asked if voters had ruled out any candidates, or if they would consider others besides their top choice(s). Not a surprise that the #1 GOP candidate in the Ruled Out category is Ron Paul. Now, I admire Dr. Paul and wish we had a few score more of him in the Congress, but he is not made for POTUS. I don't reject him (my own version of ruled out) because of so-called "electability" (we Huckabee supporters chafe at that dismissal ourselves, for the time being), but because i don't see him as Presidential material, as a leader of all America. In this poll, fully 71% of GOP voters have ruled out Dr. Paul. Businessman (why?) John Cox and Alan Keys (double why?) aren't far behind, with scores in the 60s.

As i read these numbers, 3 candidates have the best chance to move up in the polls. Romney is one, a testament to his current strength in Iowa. Not only does he consistently lead the polls, but he could still increase that lead, as folks are open to him. Another is Fred Thompson, which i attribute to his recent entry into the race. Iowans are fair enough to give him a chance to define his candidacy (beyond golf carts). Whether Fred vaults up or declines is up to his skills as a campaigner. And finally, the 3rd candidate is our own Mike Huckabee. Only 36% have ruled him out, and 49% are open for further consideration as they learn more. That can only be good news for Mike, as he has demonstrated the ability to win over voters once they get to know him.

Truly the Best
Another poll question asks which candidate would make the best President, taking the electability question out of play. This is quite interesting to me, as Romney's support plunges from 29% who have him as their top choice, to only 20% who believe he's actually the best candidate. I surmise this is a picture of electability, a coalescence around a front-runner. Likewise, Big Fred's support is quite weak, as he drops from 18% to only 12%, only 4th place among GOP candidates. This is an expression of hope (sorry to use that word), but i believe it's false hope. Huckabee finishes 3rd on this question, behind Giuliani, with 13%, a shade higher than his 12% first-choice total.

This all bodes well for Mike. The opportunity is right there for the taking. If he can convince the voters that he can win the general election, he can siphon off 3 points from both Mitt and Fred. This is a classic case of a trend needing a tipping point.

Age & Gender
Among republican women, Romney has a commanding lead, at 33%. But Huckabee is 2nd at 14%. Unsure/Uncommitted is 3rd at 13%. Among republican men, Romney also leads with 27%, and Thompson is not far behind at 22%. Huckabee is 4th with 11%. This seems clear to me that Mike should target Romney weaknesses (flip-flopping) with women voters, and Thompson's weaknesses (where do i begin?) with men. If he can figure out how to target his messages accordingly, he could make some inroads. I'm not a campaign strategist by any means, but a good media consultant should be able to figure something out.

Age-wise, Mike is tied with Rudy for 2nd among age 18-44 (a curious bracketing, as there would seem to be little in common with a college voter and someone my age - early 40s). Giuliani gets a huge jump, at Huckabee's expense to a large extent, among ages 45-64. I have no idea what to make of that. But it's better, at this stage, to show well among the young, if you had to pick only one demographic, as the young are normally the early adopters.

Conclusion
That all may be too much info for you, but i see many things here which are good signs for the Huckabee campaign. There's still plenty of work ahead, and this is just one state, but i'm encouraged.

New Iowa Poll Released

On the heels of his breakthrough 2nd place finish in the Ames Straw Poll, Mike Huckabee has to be also pleased with his showing in the latest poll in Iowa, conducted by the Des Moines Register. This is their first major poll since May, and it's interesting to compare the the change in results from May to October.

Fred Thompson has the biggest jump, but that's because he wasn't included in the May poll. He comes in at 18% this time, good for a 2nd place showing. Mitt Romney still holds a nice lead, holding steady at 29% (vs. 30% in May). His personally contributed millions have worked.

But our man Huckabee has vaulted to 3rd place, ahead of McCain (not much of a surprise), but also ahead of Giuliani (that's big news). Huckabee comes in at 12%, fully 3 times higher than he registered in May (4%). By contrast, Giuliani is plunging, from 17% to 11%. McCain has plummeted from 18% to 7%, a sign of his campaign's struggles.

These results are not a big shock to Huckabee supporters. We have been saying that once people get to hear Huckabee, and compare his views and comportment to those of the rest of the field, he will surge. Even on a shoestring budget, Huckabee's message is resonating, and the wave is building.

More later (son has a baseball game)