Delegate Math

Does Governor Huckabee really have to get 82% of the remaining Delegates (as Karl Rove claimed on FoxNews' Hannity & Colmes) to stop Senator McCain from being the Republican Nominee?

The answer: No, he doesn't have to. He only has to get about 60%, and yes, that is very possible.

I see so many different delegate counts that I'm not sure who knows, but I'll use the Real Clear Politics numbers.

Right now:

McCain 724

Total Delegates awarded so far: 1247 (Actually, I know this number is wrong because RCP is showing delegates for states that had a caucus or primary but that award delegates at some later stage. I think all of them are in Romney's column, though)

Delegates remaining to be awarded: 1133

Delegates McCain needs to be the nominee: 467 (1191-724)

Percentage McCain must receive to be the nominee: 41.22%

Percentage Huckabee must receive to take this to the Convention: 58.78%

If Huckabee gets about 82% of remaining Delegates, he wins outright going into the Convention. I don't expect that to happen, but blocking McCain is in the realm of possibility.

Quick Postgame Report

Not much to post right now, due to jury duty (my first ever) today taking up my time and the Duke/Carolina game tonight taking up my thoughts, but wanted to get a quick note or two in...

As usual, it's hard to find a definite source for delegate counts. I wanted to compare the actual results to my predictions. I checked my spreadsheet of predictions, and found i had correctly predicted the winner of 16 of the 21 super tuesday contests for the GOP. My misses were (with predicted / actual):

• Missouri (Huckabee/McCain) - oh so close!
• Alaska (Paul/Romney) - threw a bone to Paul supporters, half in fun
• Minnesota (McCain/Romney) - Mitt's caucus organization prevails
• North Dakota (McCain/Romney)
• Oklahoma (Huckabee/McCain) - my birthplace lets me down

So delegate counts don't figure to be too far off. I was, as i suspected, too optimistic about Huckabee, even though he far exceeded media expectations.

P.S. Go Blue Devils!

Show Me

Missouri didn't go the way we wanted, but Governor Romney did even worse than expected. Governor Huckabee is still in this thing. I just saw on MSNBC that Romney has spent over $1,000,000 per Delegate won. That's One Million Dollars. At that rate, he would have to spend more than a BILLION dollars to get the necessary Delegates to get the nomination.

It is well past time for Romney to drop out and let Mike face off against Senator McCain one on one.

The Authenticity Gap

Governor Romney and the echo chamber of Conservative media have been calling for Governor Huckabee to drop out of the race to allow Conservatives to unite behind Romney.  There are a few problems with this appeal.

1) Mike Huckabee was leading or tied in all the southern states when this appeal was begun.  The result of the constant drumbeat of the lie that this is a "two-man race" has been an erosion of some of Governor Huckabee's support, but polls in the past couple of days have shown that support growing back.

2) Mike Huckabee was in SECOND place in the national polls when this appeal began, so if anyone should have considered dropping out, it should have been THIRD place Romney.

3) A large percentage of those of us who are supporting Governor Huckabee would never consider voting for Romney.  One of the draws of Mike Huckabee is his authenticity, that is, he is believable.   Mitt Romney has no credibility with those of us who value authenticity.  It's one thing to change one's positions.  It's quite another to change one's positions about ten minutes before one forms an exploratory committee to run for President.  The bottom line is that we just don't believe Mitt Romney.  To further cement this "authenticity gap," take another look at points 1 & 2.

For weeks, Mitt Romney and the Conservative media echo chamber have been calling Governor Huckabee a Liberal, but now they claim that he is siphoning off Conservative votes from Romney.  How is that possible?  It's not.  The two claims are mutually exclusive.

Governor Huckabee is by far the most socially Conservative candidate.  His Fair Tax plan is the most Conservative economic plan espoused by any of the candidates, and his record as Governor of Arkansas is more Conservative than Romney's record as Governor of Massachusetts.  On National Security issues, he is at least the equal of Governor Romney, and I believe that the authenticity gap causes Romney to lose this prong as well.

Mike Huckabee is the best candidate for the three-legged stool of Reagan Conservatism, but many are too blinded by their own hubris or greed to see it. 

Super Tuesday

If John McCain wins Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, or Tennessee on Tuesday, the fault will lie with Mitt Romney, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, and Fred Thompson (Thompson gets included because his strategy in South Carolina weakened Huckabee and bolstered McCain). Mitt Romney cannot stop McCain in the South. Governor Huckabee can.

Mitt Romney's Latest Lie

I believe that the word "lie" is thrown around way too often these days. We call
things lies that don't really fit the definition. However, the latest campaign
dirty trick from Mitt Romney is a classic lie.

It appears that Romney is making calls to voters and telling them that the
Republican race is now a two-man contest. The text of the calls is this:

Hello, This is Governor Mitt Romney. The race for the Republican nomination for
president is now a two person race. Our party, I believe, is at a critical
crossroads, and the future of conservatism is very much at stake. I believe the
choice before us is quite clear: Do we support the liberal policies of the
Washington D.C. crowd, or do we want to fight for the conservative principles
that have defined our party for more than a century? I believe that our policies
have to remain rooted in conservative thought. Together, you and I can begin to
change Washington. That's why I need your vote on Tuesday

The fact is that Mike Huckabee is still very much in this race. As oso diablo
and I have both calculated, unless Romney's and the media's efforts to undermine
him work, Mike should be in second place in Delegates after Tuesday. If those
efforts do work, then the media will come out next week and say, "See, we told
you Huckabee wasn't a viable candidate," but the truth will be that they
torpedoed his campaign with this false rhetoric.

The conventional wisdom still claims that without money, a candidate can't win.
Well, Mike Huckabee proved in Iowa that it's not true in all cases.

I implore you, do not fall for the lie that voting for Mike Huckabee hands the
nomination to John McCain. Voting for Mike Huckabee improves the chances that
Mike Huckabee will be the Republican nominee. Don't listen to Mitt Romney and
the Conservative media echo chamber when they lie to you and say this is a
two-man race between Romney and McCain. They think if they say it enough, you
might believe it. And if you believe it, it will make it come true.

What to Expect on Tuesday

Tuesday is the Florida Primary. Here's a list of what I think you can expect:

Mike Huckabee will come in either 4th or 3rd.

The media will declare that this means his candidacy is doomed.

Conservative media will openly speculate that Mike will drop out before Super Tuesday

Mike Huckabee will not drop out.

Great Article

This article does an excellent job explaining the appeal of Governor Huckabee and the frustration one feels as one of his supporters at the attacks from "friendly fire" he has received pretty much non-stop for the past month plus.

The Reports of Huckabee's (Political) Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.

Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.

For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).

Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.

Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.

I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.

The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).

Checking the Toteboard

It's tough to lose a state you expected to win, and i'll take a closer look at the ramifications of that later, but this is a good time to pause and recheck my delegate count predictions. In a normal primary season, momentum would be king, but this year is different. No candidate has been able to capitalize on a primary win, in terms of momentum for the next round. And since everyone (but the self-funded Romney and the quixotic Paul) is pretty much broke, there's really little reason to drop out before Super Tuesday on Feb 5^th. No, this year appears to be, as i've been saying for a while now, an old-fashioned delegate grab.

Results Through SC

In the first 6 primaries and/or caucuses, in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina, there have been 154 delegates available. That's only 6.6% of all available delegates. By the end of 2/5, there will be another 1158 delegates awarded. That's about 8 times more than have been already awarded. This is still an open race, and will depend on who can capture hearts in the next two weeks.

Back in December, i predicted delegate wins for each candidate in each state. Let's look at how that's gone so far. I had predicted two wins apiece for Huckabee (IA and SC), Romney (MI & NV), and McCain (WY & NH). Romney ended up winning 3, taking WY, too. McCain got his two, substituting a far more important SC for WY. Huckabee lags with only one win.

But what about delegates? Check out the table below which shows actual delegates with my predictions. One caveat first: different news outlets show different totals for Iowa. The AP gives 30 delegates to Huckabee and 7 to Romney, based on historical caucus-to-delegate outcomes in that state. Other outlets merely show a proportional awarding based on the statewide vote totals. I know the later method is incorrect, but for this table, i took an average of the two approaches.

Candidate	Predicted	Actual
Mike Huckabee	37	34
Mitt Romney	56	59
John McCain	32	38
Rudy Giuliani	11	1
Fred Thompson	3	7
Others (Paul, etc)	15	7

 

Pretty much right on track, with the notable exception of Giuliani. I'm stunned with his poor performance. I know he hasn't campaigned that much in these states, but his background and name recognition alone should have been worth more than this. I had Giuliani with the 2^nd most delegates by 2/5, with big wins in NY, NJ, and CA. All those, believe it or not, are now in jeopardy. We could probably safely swap Giuliani and McCain's delegate predictions, but the essential premise would remain: this is still too muddled, and no one will have a majority, or even a clear advantage, after Super Tuesday.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates. He needs to capture a few congressional districts in FL and CA and IL.

Updated Predictions

We could plausibly wake up on February 6^th and find almost a 4-way battle on delegate counts. It seems each of the major 4 candidates has a solid non-majority constituency and/or a region of strength. Let the deal-making begin. I'm sticking by my prediction of a Huckabee/McCain ticket, in either direction.

Candidate	Original	Updated
Mike Huckabee	423	338
Mitt Romney	194	221
John McCain	205	331
Rudy Giuliani	359	300
Fred Thompson	59	54
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68

#1 and still underrated

What an exciting week! Congratulations to the Mike Huckabee campaign for their resounding victory in the Iowa caucus on Thursday night. Huckabee polled over 40,000 votes for 34.4%, well above 2nd-place Mitt Romney, who got fewer than 30,000 votes, or 25.2%. The table below shows how the candidates ranked in each county. Mike finished first or second in 98 of the 99 counties.

Rank	Huckabee	Romney	Thompson	McCain	Paul	Giuliani	Hunter	Tancredo
1	74	24	0	0	1	0	0	0
2	24	53	11	7	4	0	0	0
3	1	20	50	18	12	0	0	0
4	0	1	26	52	23	0	0	0
5	0	1	12	22	58	1	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	1	93	9	0
7	0	0	0	0	0	5	89	21
8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	78
avg	1.3	2.0	3.4	3.9	4.4	6.0	6.9	7.8

And looking at the entrance poll numbers, we find that Huckabee finished first among…

• Women (40%) and Men (29)
  
• All Age groups
  
  • Ages 17-29 (40)
    
  • Ages 30-44 (39)
    
  • Ages 45-64 (31)
    
  • Ages 65+ (30)
    
• Those who decided in the last month or before
  
• Those who decided on caucus day
  
• Those who strongly favor their candidate
  
• No matter the choice for the most important problem facing the country
  
  • Illegal immigration
    
  • War in Iraq
    
  • The economy
    
  • Terrorism
    
• Republicans (as opposed to a small group of self-identified independents, who went for Paul)
  
• Self-described as "very conservative"
  
• Self-described as "conservative"
  
• All views of the Bush administration except for "angry" (from "enthusiastic" to "dissatisfied")
  
• Family incomes below $100,000 (Romney nudged ahead on the rich folks)
  
• Suburbanites, small towners, and country folk
  
• Central Iowa, East Iowa, and West Iowa (all 3 regions)
  

Much has already been made about the evangelical vote. Fully 60% of GOP caucus goers described themselves as evangelical or born-again, and they went heavily for Huckabee, as expected. Some pundits are pooh-poohing the Iowa victory on the idea that other states don't have as many born-agains. But Barna Research consistently finds that 35-45% of American adults can be classified as born-again. Based on self-descriptions, like the Iowa polls, Barna finds that 45% call themselves born-again. Splitting that into the two major parties, Barna estimates that 51% of Republicans are born-again. Evangelicals trend GOP by a 59-16 margin. So it's not a stretch by any means that other states would trend similarly to Iowa in their GOP primaries. For example, South Carolina is decidedly more evangelical than is Iowa.

I do agree with the observation that Huckabee must deepen his appeal to non-evangelicals, and i'm confident that he can do just that. His platform of seeking energy independence, of significant pro-growth tax reform, of meaningful immigration reform, of novel education ideas like promoting arts & music education, of a focus on preventative health care, of understanding the nature of our fight against Islamic extremists, of defense of 2^nd Amendment rights – all these are coalition-building issues that go well beyond religious affiliation. Even more, Huckabee's outstanding ability to communicate, to connect with average Americans transcends religion.

Counting the Delegates

I've been analyzing the caucus and primary schedule through February 5^th, the so-called Super Tuesday, attempting to apportion the GOP delegates. If my math and sources are correct, there are just over 1300 delegates available in the 29 states. Most pundits and prognosticators talk about who's going to "win" a given state, but what goes unsaid is that delegates in most states are assigned proportionally. Most states are not winner-take-all. I suspect most of the winning talk is geared around the notion of momentum. In a normal year, momentum is pretty important, and it won't be without merit this year, but do not expect a coalescing around a single candidate. This thing is going to remain fractured, with at least 2 viable candidates going into the convention. That hasn't happened in so long that most observers dismiss it out of hand, but when you count up the delegates, it's hard to see it any other way.

If a state is not winner-take-all, it will generally apportion its delegates by primary vote portions, statewide and/or by congressional district. A few have thresholds, where a candidate needs to break a certain barrier (say, 10% or 20%) to get any delegates. The WTA states are (with delegate counts): New York (101), Connecticut (30), Delaware (18), Arizona (53), Utah (36), and Missouri (58). Besides the home-state wins in NY/AZ/UT (I'm counting Utah as a home state for Romney), I predict that Rudy Giuliani will take CT (solid) and DE (iffy) and that Mike Huckabee will take Missouri. (On further research, it appears that some other states have changed their rules to be WTA. I updated the delegate table below, but not this paragraph.)

Another aspect to keep in mind is that the GOP has awarded bonus delegates to states with Republican governors, senators, and further representation. That gives a boost to the delegate counts in Southern states, a strength for Huckabee. And the GOP has penalized those states holding primaries before Feb 5^th, impacting Michigan, New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Carolina, and Florida. Those states will have their delegate counts cut IN HALF.

Here's how I see the rest of the first 29 states going. I have a detailed spreadsheet backing this up, but I'm not going to post it all. So I'll follow convention and list my predicted winners. And by winners, I mean the candidate that I expect to receive the most delegates from a given state.

Candidate		# States Won	List of States Won
Mike Huckabee		10	IA, SC, AL, AR, GA, MO, MT, ND, OK, WV
Rudy Giuliani		7	FL, CA, CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Mitt Romney		6	MI, NV, ME, CO, UT, MA
John McCain		4	NH, WY, AZ, MN
Fred Thompson		1	TN
Ron Paul		1 (throwing a bone)	AK

And here are my projected delegate counts through Feb 5^th, not including the national superdelegates.

Candidate	# Delegates
Mike Huckabee	423
Rudy Giuliani	359
Mitt Romney	194
John McCain	205
Ron Paul (and others)	73
Fred Thompson	59

I'll check back after Iowa & New Hampshire to take a look at the post-Feb 5^th primaries. Will we get more clarity by then? Well, if my prognostications are close to correct, Fred Thompson will not be in the race by mid-February, and I believe he'll endorse fellow Senator John McCain. Mitt Romney will have a difficult decision to make. Does he continue spending his fortune when he may be in 4^th place? If we are truly heading to a fractured convention, then he might be smart to stay in the race, and position himself as a compromise candidate (a tough sell given his incessant attacks on Huckabee and McCain, and the notion by then that McCain is the better compromise candidate).

In fact, I'll go on the record right now that the GOP candidate will be either Mike Huckabee (on the 2^nd ballot) or John McCain (on a later ballot after intense backroom wrangling, and with Huckabee as his VP). Wow.

Typologies & POTUS Vote Patterns

Continuing with our look at the Pew Political Typologies, and what they may tell us about Mike Huckabee's prospects in the 2008 general election. In the previous post, i outlined a few of the groups, the key ones from our perspective. Here, we'll look at how each group voted in presidential elections back to 1980 (though i don't have data for 1988, and for 2000, all i could find was data in the 1999 study on how folks intended to vote in 2000). Still, that leaves us with 6 elections.


Note on the data - when i express a % of votes, it represents the votes for the GOP candidate vs. the Dem candidate. Third-party votes were not taken into account, an important fact to keep in mind when you see the Dole comments. And it doesn't reflect that some portion will not vote at all (that is accounted for in the conclusions section, though).


Enterprisers - the least variance (only a 3% standard deviation) of any group, solidly Republican, always at least 90% for the GOP candidate, ranging from a low of 92% for Dole in 1996, to a high of 99% for Bush in 2004.
2008 Forecast: not tough to predict, really. For the average GOP candidate, i peg it at 97%, ranging from 92% for Huckabee to 99% for Romney. A third-party Paul or Bloomberg could dip into that, but i don't expect that to happen.


Social Conservatives - also solid GOP, ranging from a low of 72% for Dole, to a high of 97% for Reagan 1984. On average, this group is 89% GOP.
2008 Forecast: The red/blue divide has solidified in recent years for socons, and so i expect them to go GOP at a 95% clip, with Huckabee leading the way in the high 90s, and Giuliani trailing at 80%.


ProGovernment Conservatives - averages 78% for the GOP candidate, dipping down to 64% for Dole, and a high of 93% for Bush 2000. Bush 2004 got 84% of this group.
2008 Forecast: another Huckabee wheelhouse. I have him leading this group, too, at 88%. Romney trails the field at 80%.


Upbeats - now we start getting into the swing groups. Upbeats have averaged 67% for the GOP, but there has been a healthy variance. Bush in 1992 got only 36%, and Dole only 47%. Those guys, as you know, lost those races. Bush 2004 got 82%, however. This group, more than any other, tends to go with the most-sunny candidate.
2008 Forecast: Huckabee is the most sunny GOP candidate since Reagan. I can see him matching Bush's 2004 mark. Giuliani would lag here, with Thompson not much better.


Disaffecteds - the KEY swing group, imo. Like the Upbeats group, they have voted with the winner in each instance i have to study. The nadir for the GOP was, again, Dole with 23%. Reagan 1984 crushed it among this group, getting 81%. Over the 6 elections, this group has gone GOP 57%.
2008 Forecast: I think the historical trend will continue, and the GOP will need at least 50% of this group to win the 2008 election. Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson would poll the best with the Disaffecteds, among the GOP contenders. Giuliani and Romney would lag. Huckabee's unusual (for a Republican, sadly) populist messages resonate here.


Conservative Democrats - Peaked in 1984 at 25% for Reagan. Bush 2004 got 18%, about this group's GOP average.
2008 Forecast: I expect a GOP % in the 11-13% range, regardless of candidate.


Of the other voting groups, all strong Democratic groups, i don't see anything noteworthy, other than perhaps a chance for Giuliani to siphon off some of the Liberals, due to his pro-choice views and a perception that he would be stronger on foreign policy than the Democratic candidate. Not enough to make much difference, but i thought i should mention it, in fairness.


Conclusion
When you compare my forecasts with the historical voter turnout patterns by group, you can forecast a general election outcome (again, ignoring possible third-party spoilers). Here's what i get, in descending order of electability...

1. Huckabee - 50.4%
2. McCain - 50.1%
3. Thompson - 48.2%
4. Romney - 48.1%
5. Giuliani - 47.0%

Probably surprising for some readers who hearken to the prevailing "wisdom" that a social moderate is the best bet in the general election. And i know i'm open to charges of hagiographic bias for Huckabee. What hurts Giulini is the double-punch of losing enough social conservatives over the abortion issue, and enough Upbeats due to his tendency to turn dour. What helps Huckabee is that he will pull the best among the two key swing groups - Upbeats and Disaffecteds.

Pew Political Typologies

The Pew Research Center has analyzed the political views of Americans for more than a decade, most notably in their Political Typology reports. The typologies categorize Americans into one of 7-8 groups, based on their ideology, party identification, and values & beliefs.

For example, the Enterprisers group, representing about 10% of the country, is an extremely partisan Republican grouping, driven by a core belief in free enterprise and conservative social values. This group tends to be very patriotic, pro-business, anti-regulation, and assertive with foreign policy. Demographically, Enterprisers are predominately male, white, married, higher educated, and financially well-off. They are not much more religious than the country as a whole. This is the group that follows political news more closely than any other of the Typology groups. In the 2004 election, they voted for Bush 92-1 over John Kerry. (Incidentally, this is the group I end up in, when I take the typology test.)

The other groups, with their portion of the US registered voter population in (paren):

• Social Conservatives (13%)
  
• Pro Government Conservatives (10%)
  
• Upbeats (13%)
  
• Disaffecteds (10%)
  
• Liberals (19%)
  
• Conservative Democrats (15%)
  
• Disadvantaged Democrats (10%)
  
• Bystanders (0% of voters, but 10% of the adult population)
  

I have analyzed the 2004/2005 report in-depth, looking at the viewpoints of each group on key current issues and their voting patterns. I have also reviewed the prior reports, from 1999, 1994, and 1987, paying particular attention to the presidential voting patterns, from Reagan forward. In a future post, I'll outline what I've found there, and how it specifically relates to the 2008 election and Mike Huckabee. I have predicted voting outcomes for each of the groups for each of the top GOP candidates. Based on the last 2 decades, the key swing group is the Disaffected. Other important swing groups are Pro-Government Conservatives, Upbeats, and Conservative Democrats. Let's take a closer look at these 4 groups.

Disaffecteds

This is a politically cynical group that is mostly independent, party-wise. They tend to be dissatisfied with both their personal situation and with the state of the country. This group faces significant personal financial pressures, and is highly concerned with the impact of immigration or anything that impacts the availability of good jobs. They voted for Bush 2-1 over Kerry in the 2004 election, but about 25% of them didn't bother to vote at all. A large majority (70%) have no college education. They skew male (57%), and rural/suburban. This is a group that contains a large number of what used to be called Reagan Democrats.

Pro-Government Conservatives

Formerly termed "Populist Republicans", this group is typified by its strong religious faith and moral conservatism. Unlike other GOP groups, however, they express skepticism about the free market and are favorable toward government programs providing an economic safety net. They went for Bush by a 5-1 margin in 2004, but a fifth of them didn't vote. Demographically, much like a female (62%) version of the Disaffecteds. Nearly half are parents of in-the-household children, and nearly half live in the South.

Upbeats

Optimistic and independent, Upbeats feel good about the country and their own situation. They are more moderate on moral issues. In 2004, they voted for Bush by more than a 4-1 margin. Skew young, white, married, wealthy, educated, and suburban. A large portion of Catholics and mainline Protestants.

Conservative Democrats

Pretty solidly Democratic in recent elections, but distinguished from other Democrats by their religious orientation and conservative views on moral issues. This group contains an over-sample of older women and blacks. They voted for John Kerry as solidly as did the Upbeats for Bush.

More later…