RSDO Part II

I was going to post some more good reasons why Romney should drop out, if anyone should. But The Thomas Report covered them all already. Huckabee...

• Better debater & communicator
• Able to pull in non-typical constituencies, such as the African-American vote
• Greater history of winning tough elections
• Has defeated the Clinton political machine

If you're a first-time visitor here, i know i'm blowing your mind. But spend 5 minutes really thinking about this. The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every turn in this election (except for the prediction that Hillary & Bill would resort to their old tricks). Don't get sucked in to the same old inanities.

Romney Should Drop Out

The conventional wisdom from the meanstream media (stole that from another poster at Huck's Army) is that the GOP race is down to two people – McCain vs. Romney. Mitt, of course, has seized on this theme and has asserted that a vote for Governor Huckabee is a vote for John McCain. If this is truly to become a two-man race, and the goal is to defeat the momentum-laden McCain (assuming last night's woeful performance in the debate didn't stop his momentum in its tracks), then the best thing to do is coalesce around the most conservative candidate, the most electable candidate, the candidate with the most upside. That candidate is not Mitt Romney; it's Mike Huckabee.

Most Conservative

Mitt likes to proclaim himself the standard-bearer on the 3-legged stool of conservatism, with the 3 legs being social, fiscal, and national security issues. Like he triumphantly proclaimed last night that of course Ronald Reagan would endorse him. But just because i can slap on a glove and cleats doesn't mean you should put me in at shortstop. Is Mitt Romney the Sidd Finch of politics? Is there any there there?

Consider the 3 leg formulation.

• Social – even if we believe that Romney has finally hit his conservative political puberty and has truly converted to the prolife position (at most it's a position with him, not a cause) and other social conservative bona fides, he would still lag far behind Governor Huckabee's convictions, record, and prospects on this leg. A big win for Huckabee
  
• National Security – Like almost all governors, you'll find little directly relevant foreign policy experience for either candidate. This would turn on judgment, toughness, and leadership. I'm not impressed with Romney's CEO experience and so don't give the leadership advantage that he surely thinks he owns. I believe Huckabee has better judgment and would be tougher with aggressive regimes.
  
• Fiscal – Romney believes this is his trump card. But here's your trump card...
  

TAX FREEDOM DAY

A tax freedom day is the day in the calendar when you've worked long enough in the new year to afford to pay all your taxes. It's a sad commentary on our times, but this date is usually in April, and seems to fall later and later (see table 1 at the link) all the time. In 2007, it is estimated that the national tax freedom day was April 30th. So let's compare the records of Governors Huckabee and Romney in their respective states, looking at the Tax Freedom Day when they took office vs. when each left office.

Governor/State		TFD – Start		TFD - End	Net Effect
Huckabee / AR		April 22		April 22	Same
Romney / MA		April 21		May 6	15 days WORSE

If you don't mind working an extra two weeks for the government, then by all means believe the talking heads that Romney is the fiscal conservative.

Most Electable

I covered this in my Typologies post, showing the polling evidence that Governor Huckabee would be a better general election candidate than Romney. You can also look at the head to head polls compiled at RCP. Against Clinton, Huckabee fares 2-3 points better than Romney does. Against Obama, Huckabee also fares better than does Romney. Granted, neither candidate is polling well against those two right now, but this has been a consistent pattern – Huckabee trumps Romney. Governor Huckabee is more electable than Governor Romney, based on all the evidence we have to study.

Most Upside

Romney has had the powerful two-pronged advantage of both MONEY and MEDIA behind him, and still hasn't won a contested primary other than Michigan, which is practically home for him, given that his father was a popular governor there.

Think about it. Romney has outspent even his well-funded rivals by orders of magnitude that boggle the mind. Millions upon millions on negative ads, distortions of the records of the other candidates. He has all the power of talk radio behind him, all the conservative establishment media serving as surrogate mouthpieces for his campaign.

And what does he have to show for it? If he hasn't been able to beat McCain up until now, why would he all of sudden start doing it next Tuesday or beyond? If anyone should drop out, it should be Romney. The conservative establishment should try something else. That something else is, of course, Governor Huckabee.

Huckabee Endorses Reagan

The Calvinator mentions the great answer by Governor Huckabee in the debate last night. Here's the clip...

California Debate

The debate was structured to buy into the fiction that this is only a two-man race between Governor Romney and Senator McCain, but if I have one hope coming form it, it would be that everyone could hear Governor Huckabee's response to the final question of the night. When each candidate was asked if Ronald Reagan would have endorsed them for President, Mike said:

I think it would be incredibly presumptuous and even arrogant for me to try to suggest what Ronald Reagan would do, that he would endorse any of us against the others.

Let me just say this, I'm not going to pretend he would endorse me. I wish he would. I would love that, but I endorse him, and I'm going to tell you why.

It wasn't just his specific policies, but Ronald Reagan was something more than just a policy wonk. He was a man who loved this country, and he inspired this country to believe in itself again.

What made Ronald Reagan a great president was not just the intricacies of his policies, though they were good policies. It was that he loved America and saw it as a good nation and a great nation because of the greatness of its people.

And if we can recapture that, that's when we recapture the Reagan spirit. It's that spirit that has a can-do attitude about America's futures and that makes us love our country whether we're Democrats or Republicans. And that's what I believe Ronald Reagan did -- he brought this country back together and made us believe in ourselves.

And whether he believes in us, I hope we still believe in those things which made him a great leader and a great American.

When I can find some video of it, I'll add it. The best part was that this was the very last statement made by any of the candidates in the debate.

Max Out for Mike

Friday February 1st has been designated as Max Out for Mike day.  If you can give the maximum allowed contribution of $2300 ($4600 per couple), please do so. If you can't give that much, please give the maximum that you can, whether that's $1 or $2299.

You can register your intent at MaxOutForMike.com

I will be Maxing Out for Mike! Will you join me?

Post Florida Report

Tonight Florida awarded 57 delegates to John McCain. Up next are the 22 states on super Tuesday.

This is what i said on the 20^th after SC. It's still true. Note that Missouri has MORE delegates than did Florida.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates.

Updated Predictions

The smart money tonight is on the end of the Giuliani campaign, and that he'll throw his support to McCain. Certainly, Giuliani's exit would give big winner-take-all states such as NY and NJ to McCain. So here's my latest update, reflecting my assumption of the end of Giuliani, and also taking out any future Thompson delegates (with the inconsequential exception of a few in TN). Still not enough for a majority, but enough to give McCain a clear command of the race, and perhaps enough to get deals worked out by Easter.

Again, this table shows my delegate estimates through 2/5.

Candidate	Original	1/20 est.	1/29 est.
Mike Huckabee	423	338	345
Mitt Romney	194	221	247
John McCain	205	331	636
Rudy Giuliani	359	300	11
Fred Thompson	59	54	8
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68	65

I'm probably still wearing my Huck-colored glasses, but i'll fight to the end.

Next Tuesday, all you have to watch is Missouri. If there's a miracle to be had, it will have to start there.

Ahead of the Curve

Don't you want your president to be forward-thinking? To drive change, not merely tag along. To put forth innovative ideas, not rehash the same old platitudes. In short, to be a leader and not a follower. Of course you do.

Governor Mike Huckabee is just that. Consider what we've seen on the campaign trail, as Governor Huckabee has led the conversation on many issues, and other candidates have trailed or parroted his ideas. Or will soon.

• The most innovative and bold idea on any candidate's platform – Republican or Democrat – in the FairTax.
  
• Energy independence within 8 years & an understanding that it is a national security issue
  
• Exploration of switchgrass as an alternate biofuel
  
• Stimulating OUR economy – not China's – by investing in our infrastructure. Namely, to start with, widening I-95.
  
• Recognizing, several months ahead of the other GOP candidates and the pundits, that the economy was weakening (about a minute into the video)
  
• A focus on actual health, not just health insurance or the medical system
  
• A call for total government transparency
  
• A bill of rights for our military veterans
  
• A detailed plan to address illegal immigration
  
• A focus on whole-brain education
  
• Closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay, a position for which he was criticized by Fred Thompson, only to have the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs come out just a few days later saying the exact same thing, agreeing with Governor Huckabee
  

The Governor is stereotyped as a bumpkin', a view that i count as bigotry. Prejudice against southerners, against evangelicals. But he is leading the intellectual charge.

What to Expect on Tuesday

Tuesday is the Florida Primary. Here's a list of what I think you can expect:

Mike Huckabee will come in either 4th or 3rd.

The media will declare that this means his candidacy is doomed.

Conservative media will openly speculate that Mike will drop out before Super Tuesday

Mike Huckabee will not drop out.

You need to Watch This

And send the link you all you friends.

Great Article

This article does an excellent job explaining the appeal of Governor Huckabee and the frustration one feels as one of his supporters at the attacks from "friendly fire" he has received pretty much non-stop for the past month plus.

WallBuilders

I know that Huckabee's weaknesses aren't in the Social Conservative area, but I felt it would be good to point folks to the WallBuilders Voters Guide.

(Semi) Live Blogging the FL Debate

Bullets added as debate rolls on, with more recent comments at the top...

• Awesome segment there with the Governor talking over and standing up to Russert's pessimism. "That's the problem in America. Everyone talks about what we can't do; we need to talk about what we can do, whether it's overhauling the tax system or reaching energy independence." Not an exact quote. That's leadership. That's exactly right, Governor!
• There's a 10-12% inflation rate, Dr. Paul? I guess if all you spend money on is surgery, and don't spend anything on groceries or phone bills and such.
• There's the Bill Clinton mention. I win some points at Politico's Kingmaker.
• I agree with McCain about the gang of 14. And i agree with Medved in general that the same goofs who are lying about Huckabee's record are lying about McCain's record.
• Rudy is stealing Mike's lines about energy independence?
• Does Mitt fib again about the 2nd amendment?
• There's that Kemp/Gramm roll-call again! LOL.
• Ron Paul is an economy wonk at heart, and he can't get away from that.
• Pretty good defense of the FairTax, and he mentioned that current prices already reflect embedded taxes.
• Interesting that McCain is asking Governor Huckabee about the FairTax. This is not how i expected this segment to go. It almost sounds like a set-up, like perhaps these guys had a pre-arranged deal. We'll see when Huckabee asks his question.
• If Rudy is crafty, he would turn Mitt's (long-awaited) question around on him, and say that one thing we cannot do is have American companies, like Mitt's Bain Capital, partnering with China to undermine our military independence.
• Mitt is supposed to ask a question, but he's making a speech.
• Huckabee should have talked about radical Islamic fascists, not Easter Eggs.
• Good answer by Giuliani about the 60% poll (the hindsighters who say the Iraq war was not worth it).
• So Romney put together a National Guard version of a GI bill, but he's not a big-government conservative? Now, i don't think he is, but we should use the same standard for Governor Huckabee.
• Huckabee read my mind. It's not about the richie-riches.
• Who's doing their 2010 budget already?
• Russert references the "prosperity gap" for the GOP. This is the killer, mostly unspoken news for the GOP this year. It's not just Bush; it's this general belief among Americans that the Democrats are the better party for the economy. If the GOP is to have any hope at all, they HAVE to close this gap, and it won't happen with a business-as-usual Republican (ie, Romney). It will take someone who can connect with the middle class.
• A 9/11 reference for Giuliani, but it comes from Brian Williams, not Rudy. Oops, no, of course, Rudy goes in depth about a ground zero story.
• Two hits already on Sarbanes-Oxley. Good! Being in the corporate world, i see SOX as more government meddling and a bureaucratic boondoggle. Companies are spending enormous resources to stay in compliance. This, to me, is worse regulation, in terms of real impact, than the reviled McCain-Feingold.
• McCain has taken to this roll-call of fiscal conservatives who are supporting him. That's cool and all (i'm a big fan of Jack Kemp, to take one example), but i doubt it resonates with the average voter. I'm into this stuff and even i don't recognize all those names, but if i'm an average voter, i'm sure those are all rich old white guys.
• Romney asserts that he faced a $3 billion budget deficit. But this is misleading, as the Boston Globe has repeatedly pointed out. There's some truth to Romney's success story, but it is way overblown. You'd think a Harvard MBA wouldn't need to resume-pad.
• Interesting proposal from Governor Huckabee to widen I-95 by 2 lanes. Totally avoids the bait to attack Romney. And an intriguing point about whose economy - ours or China's? - will be most stimulated by these so-called stimulus packages.

ATTN: IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, MICHIGAN, NEVADA, & SOUTH CAROLINA HUCKABEE (and Hunter) VOTERS

Your job is not done.  If you voted for Governor Huckabee (or Duncan Hunter), and you don't want that vote to go to waste, you need to step up and contribute so that your candidate of choice will be able to see this race to the finish line.

If everyone who has already voted for Huckabee & Hunter would donate just $25, it would raise $8,660,450.  If each only gave $10, it would add up to $3,464,180.

Make sure your vote continues to matter.

Now, to people who haven't voted yet.

If you haven't given any money, what are you waiting for?  You can't give $25 to the most inspiring Presidential candidate in 24 years?  You can't give $10?

If you have already given, but aren't maxed out, You can't give another $25 to the most inspiring Presidential candidate in 24 years?  You can't give another $10?

The Reports of Huckabee's (Political) Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.

Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.

For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).

Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.

Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.

I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.

The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).

Update on FL

I just confirmed that Florida will be a statewide winner-take-all primary. I had seen sites suggesting that, but none of them provided an original source to back up what just appeared to be speculation. But it's true. Back in August, after the national GOP stripped a few states of half their delegates for attempting to jump-the-2/5-gun, the Florida GOP decided to change their delegate process to award all of the 57 delegates to whichever candidate got the most votes across the entire state.

My calculations below do not take that into account, but aside from any momentum effect (a missing animal this year), this change wouldn't have a major impact on the counts. It would mean that any of 3 candidates - Huckabee, Giuliani or McCain - could emerge from Super Tuesday with the most delegates (i suppose Romney could too, but i can't see it), but no one would still have a sizeable lead, and nowhere near on track for a majority.

I'm hopeful for Governor Huckabee, but Florida has never been a state i expected him to win outright. I was banking on securing the delegates from the northern and central parts of the state. There's a chance, of course, of a victory, but i'd peg it at less than 10%. We supporters must keep working.

Expanding the Base

Exit poll after exit poll has told the same story for Governor Huckabee. So far, he's been a one-trick pony, capturing primarily the born-again vote. Of course, that's his political brand, and it's a strong one. And, given that fully 45% of Americans adults call themselves evangelical and/or born-again, it's not a bad place to build a campaign, particularly in the GOP side. But it's a foundation only, not a livable house. To build an electoral house, the Governor must expand his base of support beyond born-agains. I say this as one of those 45%.

It would one thing if Huckabee could garner a near-unanimous tally among evangelicals, like Mitt Romney captured Mormons in Nevada yesterday. Romney got 94% of the Mormon vote yesterday! That's astounding. And if that had been evangelicals for Huckabee, you would have seen garment-rending among the media. Theocracy! Theocracy! Theocracy! But i digress.

Some suggestions…

• STOP the God & Constitution rhetoric. I suspect this one comment hurt Huckabee way more than has been measured, and way more than anything he has said before. It doesn't really matter what nuance he meant. Given voter suspicions already, this totally fed into those fears. I know, and most of my readers know, that he was merely talking about the two parts of his platform that call for Constitutional amendments – protecting unborn children and the sanctity of marriage – and why it's ok to pursue amendments. But he has to talk about those things in Constitutional terms, and saying it is what God wants doesn't cut it. There are plenty of reasons to stand up for innocent children in the womb that don't require Christian Identity language. A purely God-approach to public-square arguments is more likely to undermine the cause than to advance it. It pains me to say this, but i believe it's true.
  
• STOP preaching on Sunday mornings. I know some Huckabee supporters will blanch at this point. I personally think it's great that he goes into a church and preaches the gospel, as opposed to the typical politician who makes a barely-concealed stump speech. But the rules for Huckabee now are different, presuming he wants to become President. Alternatively, keep making the appearances, but adjust the message. You don't have to avoid God-talk here, but it would make more sense to deliver a strong message with broader appeal. Preach about ministering to the poor and needy. Preach about the fruit of the Spirit. But the current approach of talking about Christians winning in the end and what-not is counter-productive in the context of the election. It reminds me of Gene Simmons on Celebrity Apprentice, with the nose-thumbing of i'm going to do what i want, i don't care what the experts say, fire me if you wish. I guess that's great if you want to just be on TV, but not if you're actually interested in winning the race you're in.
  
• Reach out to a conservative group like Heritage Foundation or CATO. Make a speech; write an article like the one i posted on Friday. You have a lot of good things to talk about.
  
• Tighten up your message when you get free media. Enough of the aw-shucks quips about flak and hunter-targets and hit-dogs. If you're asked about taxes, say simply: In Arkansas, our economy grew faster than the national average, we moved from a large budget deficit to an even larger budget surplus, we made vast improvements in roads & education, we made government work again, and we did it all with a tax burden BELOW the national average. If you are asked a God question, say simply: i believe firmly in the founders' view of the separation of church & state, and of religious freedom as embedded in our Constitution. Our goal is to make American a better place, and all viewpoints, whether from the religious or non-religious, are welcome in the debate about what that means. If Fred Thompson tries to put you in the Blame America First crowd, explode back at him with a "How dare you question my patriotism, Senator!"
  
• Insist that the media refer to you as Governor Huckabee, which is the proper salutation and etiquette, and not merely as a Baptist preacher.
  

Why this is important

Governor Huckabee's message and platform should have broader appeal beyond born-agains. He should be a candidate who appeals to prolife Catholics, to conservatives & moderates concerned about our stewardship of the environment, to conservatives who question whether government is approaching the economy in the right way, to other non-traditional constituencies. But those inclined to consider him are turned off by the continued Christian Identity politics. They aren't going to understand little phrases that are innocuous to evangelicals, but troubling for those not in the club. It makes it easy for them to ignore him in the voting booth. I bet there are even legions of FairTax fans that are queasy. But it doesn't have to be that way. This is still a winnable election.

Checking the Toteboard

It's tough to lose a state you expected to win, and i'll take a closer look at the ramifications of that later, but this is a good time to pause and recheck my delegate count predictions. In a normal primary season, momentum would be king, but this year is different. No candidate has been able to capitalize on a primary win, in terms of momentum for the next round. And since everyone (but the self-funded Romney and the quixotic Paul) is pretty much broke, there's really little reason to drop out before Super Tuesday on Feb 5^th. No, this year appears to be, as i've been saying for a while now, an old-fashioned delegate grab.

Results Through SC

In the first 6 primaries and/or caucuses, in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina, there have been 154 delegates available. That's only 6.6% of all available delegates. By the end of 2/5, there will be another 1158 delegates awarded. That's about 8 times more than have been already awarded. This is still an open race, and will depend on who can capture hearts in the next two weeks.

Back in December, i predicted delegate wins for each candidate in each state. Let's look at how that's gone so far. I had predicted two wins apiece for Huckabee (IA and SC), Romney (MI & NV), and McCain (WY & NH). Romney ended up winning 3, taking WY, too. McCain got his two, substituting a far more important SC for WY. Huckabee lags with only one win.

But what about delegates? Check out the table below which shows actual delegates with my predictions. One caveat first: different news outlets show different totals for Iowa. The AP gives 30 delegates to Huckabee and 7 to Romney, based on historical caucus-to-delegate outcomes in that state. Other outlets merely show a proportional awarding based on the statewide vote totals. I know the later method is incorrect, but for this table, i took an average of the two approaches.

Candidate	Predicted	Actual
Mike Huckabee	37	34
Mitt Romney	56	59
John McCain	32	38
Rudy Giuliani	11	1
Fred Thompson	3	7
Others (Paul, etc)	15	7

 

Pretty much right on track, with the notable exception of Giuliani. I'm stunned with his poor performance. I know he hasn't campaigned that much in these states, but his background and name recognition alone should have been worth more than this. I had Giuliani with the 2^nd most delegates by 2/5, with big wins in NY, NJ, and CA. All those, believe it or not, are now in jeopardy. We could probably safely swap Giuliani and McCain's delegate predictions, but the essential premise would remain: this is still too muddled, and no one will have a majority, or even a clear advantage, after Super Tuesday.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates. He needs to capture a few congressional districts in FL and CA and IL.

Updated Predictions

We could plausibly wake up on February 6^th and find almost a 4-way battle on delegate counts. It seems each of the major 4 candidates has a solid non-majority constituency and/or a region of strength. Let the deal-making begin. I'm sticking by my prediction of a Huckabee/McCain ticket, in either direction.

Candidate	Original	Updated
Mike Huckabee	423	338
Mitt Romney	194	221
John McCain	205	331
Rudy Giuliani	359	300
Fred Thompson	59	54
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68

Governor Huckabee at Heritage

I am a long-time member of (more than that, i make an automatic monthly contribution to) the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank based in Washington DC. Their primary purpose is to assist political leaders, particularly Senators and House members, craft public policy that comports with conservative principles. Well, heck, here is their mission statement.

Founded in 1973, The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institute - a think tank - whose mission is to formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.

Early in his tenure as Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee presented a lecture at Heritage called "Cutting Taxes and Other Great Ideas for Congress". I have highlighted some good excerpts…

• In Arkansas…, there are conservatives who believe that government really does need to get smaller, not larger; who believe that the best government is the most local government; who believe that taxes should be smaller; and who try to bring more efficiencies into what we do in government. And the good news is that this message of smaller, more efficient and accountable government is selling in our state.
  
• The executive branch cannot accomplish anything without working with the legislative branch, sitting down with them, negotiating, and treating the members with respect because they were elected just like I was.
  
• One of the greatest challenges that I faced as governor of a state like Arkansas was that for 162 years the tax burden on Arkansans always went up. It never went down… But, for the first time in 1997 and again this session, the old paradigm was no longer valid. The big battle was no longer, "Which taxes will we raise and by how much?" but, "Which taxes will we cut and by how much?"
  
• We passed a comprehensive income tax relief package, marking the first time in Arkansas' history that the state had seen a major, broad-based income tax cut. This $90.6 million tax relief measure lessened the tax burden on Arkansans in many ways.
  
  • Ended the income tax marriage penalty
    
  • Below the poverty line? No income tax
    
  • Ended bracket creep by indexing to inflation
    
  • Doubled the allowable child care credit
    
  • Eliminated the capital gains tax on sale of primary home
    
• In both 1997 and 1999, we produced balanced budgets with tax relief in the budgets. In other words, we budgeted for tax relief. By finding savings to pay for new programs, we proved it was possible to propose new and needed programs by reallocating resources while still providing tax relief. This has never before been accomplished in Arkansas.
  
• Character-based education has become a very important component of our education structure in Arkansas, and school districts have options on how they implement it… Children need to understand there are consequences for living out virtues, and we've already seen some pretty convincing results: discipline problems are going down and the learning atmosphere has improved dramatically.
  
• In addition to making it possible, through the Fair Dismissal Act, to get rid of teachers who are not doing the job and who are violating their contract, we also passed a bill that will provide financial incentives up to $2,000 a year of additional money for teachers who show extraordinary excellence in teaching.
  
• 44 percent of the people on welfare a year and a half ago are now off the welfare rolls and are in jobs and working.
  
• These are some of the things we've done, and they are proof positive that cutting taxes, making government performance-driven and accountable to the people, and bringing some sense of real fairness to government's overall approach is making life better for all our citizens.
  

Now does that look anything like a liberal to you? Don't believe the nonsense you hear from cranky political opponents. And consider that, around the same time Governor Huckabee delivered this address and set his state on a new path of conservatism, John McCain and Fred Thompson were in the Senate cooking up some new bitter brew called campaign finance reform, and this same duo would soon be strategizing to make McCain the 2000 GOP nominee for president.

Comparison Chart

This isn't the same old boring candidate comparison chart. You can find those anywhere. No, this is a chart showing the similarities between Governor Huckabee and this site's two bloggers.

Note: those symbols were little check marks in Word/Excel, but in blogger it appears they have transformed into ballots. Omen?

Characteristic	Governor Huckabee	oso diablo	the calvinator
Conservative			
ProLife			
Born on Aug 24			
First Name is Michael		
Middle Name is Dale			
Raised Baptist			
Did Theater in high school			
Attended Baptist university			
Graduated with honors			
Raised in small town near Ark-La-Tex border			
Plays guitar	
Has run a marathon	
Holds/Had a FCC license for radio DJ		
Holds/Had a license to preach			
Wife's name starts with J			
Has a son named David		
Has a daughter named Sarah			
Has run for public office			
Named one of America's best governors	
Authored numerous books	
Endorsed by Chuck Norris	
Best hope for the 2008 election	

And the Rich Shall Inherit the White House

This is no way to pick a president. When the system hinges on who can write the biggest personal check to fund their campaign, then America is in trouble. It's a key step toward a plutocracy.

I'm reacting to an article at Real Clear Politics which logically concludes:

In a weird way, the GOP presidential primary campaign now hinges on Mitt Romney. More specifically, it hinges on whether Romney will be willing to spend as much of his personal fortune as necessary to win the GOP nomination. That could amount to as much as $40 million, on top of the $17 million he has already contributed to the cause. If he does decide to fully fund his own campaign, then he will be able to outspend his rivals on television advertising by as much as 10-to-1 in state after state after state (think: February 5th). If someone asks you: "can Mitt Romney win the GOP nomination?" ask them: "is he willing to write the check?"

Romney outspent his nearest rival by more than 3 to 1 in Michigan (in addition to promising to spend your tax dollars to the tune of $20 billion to prop up the Detroit auto industry). He outspent Governor Huckabee by 15 to 1 in Iowa, though Iowans gratefully saw through that.

The best way to buck this system is to Huck this system. Vote for the candidate outside this money-driven, inside-establishment system. Cast your vote for Mike Huckabee. Another way to make your voice heard is to contribute (just click the Ranger link at the top right).

Arkansas CEOs: Look Past "Shallow Rhetoric"

Six corporate leaders based in Arkansas today encouraged voters to "look past the shallow rhetoric of yet another campaign season" and truly check out the stellar record of leadership from Governor Huckabee in their state.

Here's the entire statement (emphasis added)...

Columbia, SC - Today, the following businessmen from Arkansas released a statement in support of former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee: Scott T. Ford, President and CEO, Alltel Corporation; Warren A. Stephens, President and CEO, Stephens Inc.; Madison Murphy, Former Chairman, Murphy Oil Corporation; John Tyson, Chairman of the Board, Tyson Foods, Inc; and French Hill, Chairman and CEO, Delta Trust and Banking Corporation:

"We are a traditionally bi-partisan group of executives of several of the largest corporations headquartered in the State of Arkansas, each with considerable exposure to the Administration of Governor Mike Huckabee. Of late, Governor Huckabee has attracted what we believe to be unwarranted criticism regarding his business record."

"Our experience with Governor Huckabee indicates that he not only values greatly the freedoms of religion and liberty, but of the free market as well. He is an atypical leader who garnered the respect of not only the professional business community but of the working men and women across our State as well."

"When he became our Governor, he inherited our long sub-standard education system, infrastructure, and regulatory climate. Under his leadership, we were able to grow our businesses, increase our employment, reduce our litigation exposure and enjoy, along with all of our fellow Arkansans, a healthier economy, improved schools, updated highways, and new healthcare delivery facilities."

"In our support of Governor Huckabee's truly conservative, small government business outlook and his pragmatic, yet compassionate style of governing, we invite you to look past the shallow rhetoric of yet another campaign season to see what we have experienced first hand - that with the right political leadership in place, businesses and citizens can jointly prosper and as they do, they contribute so much more to the economic and societal fabric of a community than simply tax revenues."

The Good News from Michigan

Governor Huckabee enjoyed a late bounce in support. His numbers were higher among folks who decided on their vote in the past 3 days and those who decided today.

Hopefully, this bodes well for South Carolina.

Who's the Liberal?

So, who carried self-identified Liberals in the Michigan Republican Primary?

McCain, who has been repeatedly attacked as a Liberal?

Huckabee, whom the Conservative media has also labeled a Liberal?

NOPE.

Romney

Michagan Exit Poll data

Issue: Economics

I'm not going to type a long defense of Governor Huckabee's Economic record or plan. Instead, I'm simply going to point everyone to the video of Governor Huckabee's speech to the Detroit Economic Club last Friday.

There should be a new rule that any critic must address what the Governor said in this speech before being allowed to attack him as a "Liberal."


Part 1:



Part 2:



Part 3:



Part 4:



Part 5:



This is one of the best speeches I have ever heard, and I have two degrees in Speech Communication, so I've studied some of the best.

The Lofty Goal

The Huckabee campaign has set a fundraising goal of $10,000,000 by Super Tuesday, February 5th. Putting the calculator to it, this means the campaign needs to raise $407,619.64 per day. That may sound daunting, but that's only $16,984.15/hour. And that breaks down to $283.07/minute.

Let's make it happen. If you aren't already maxed out, please donate before February 5th. If you are already maxed out, find somebody else to donate.

George Will Comes Around

Well, not really, but I'm going to use his latest column to illustrate why he, and all Republicans, should support Mike Huckabee.

Will writes:

Today, all the usual indicators are dismal for Republicans. If that sweeping assertion seems counterintuitive, produce a counterexample. The adverse indicators include: shifts in voters' identifications with the two parties (Democrats now 50 percent, Republicans 36 percent); the tendency of independents (they favored Democratic candidates by 18 points in 2006); the fact that Democrats hold a majority of congressional seats in states with 303 electoral votes; the Democrats' strength and the Republicans' relative weakness in fundraising; the percentage of Americans who think the country is on the "wrong track"; the Republicans' enthusiasm deficit relative to Democrats' embrace of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, one of whom will be nominated. (emphasis added)

Governor Huckabee can bring back the Independent voters who have been flocking away from the Republicans. I believe he can also bring back the Reagan Democrats, who are pro-life, but a little more Moderate on economic issues.

Is Mitt Romney going to inspire Independents? Fred Thompson? Rudy Giuliani?

Oh, and I think I should point out that Will's point seems to be that since the Republicans are going to lose anyway, they ought to go down with a 100% rock-ribbed Conservative. Of course, I'm not sure who he thinks fits that qualification.

Arthur Branch Lives!

The previously moribund and laconic Fred Thompson fired a broadside against Governor Huckabee in the recent South Carolina debate. Reading from notes, Thompson catalogued a litany of supposed "sins" by the apostate Huckabee. It's true that he doesn't hew to the rabid orthodoxy of talk-show conservatism, and that he confounds the elites. But Thompson's shot represents part of what we decry about the political process. It's barely better than the freak show, reducing nuanced policy positions to half-truth soundbites, in a format that does not lend itself to response. It's time to grow up.

My first reaction was "well, looks like Arthur Branch nailed his lines, and on the first take, too." The outburst reminded me of someone who half-wakes from a dream, and loudly and urgently blurts out something incomprehensible. A mom would sooth, "that's ok sweetie, just go back to sleep."

But that's just me being snarky.

As for the charges themselves, The Calvinator takes on one of them below – school choice and vouchers. As for the NEA of New Hampshire support, i find it foolhardy to eschew the support of a large group of Americans. I'm glad that some of these unions are recognizing that a large portion of their members are conservative, and wish to express their support of a conservative candidate, not just the same-old Democratic entrenchment. Reagan understood that, garnering the endorsement of the Teamsters and PATCO, and 44% of the union vote in the 1980 election. McCain echoed that approach in the 2000 primary.

Blame America first? How can anyone honestly look at Huckabee's platform and conclude that? It's just an immature bromide. I've never heard any leader talk more authentically and passionately about the founding fathers, about the Declaration of Independence. Huckabee is insistent about American sovereignty. He was the first candidate to come out strongly against the Law of the Sea Treaty, due to concerns about our sovereignty. He talks about the pride of knowing you're in a country that people want to break into, not out of. Huckabee loves America.

Guantanamo? Here are Huckabee's comments in a press release from December. He advocates the same position as John McCain, which is that if the legal assumption bears out (awaiting a SCOTUS ruling) that no additional rights would be granted, then there is tremendous symbolic benefit from closing Guantanamo and moving the combatants to Ft. Leavenworth. By the way, i couldn't find any online evidence that Fred Thompson has visited Guantanamo for a first-hand view, as the other candidates have, including Huckabee.

Taxpayer-funded programs for illegals? There is nothing in Huckabee's platform that would do that. In fact, his immigration plan is tough enough for the endorsement of the founder of the Minutemen, Jim Gilchrist. The reference is surely to the college scholarship plan that Huckabee had in Arkansas, where children of illegals could qualify for a state college scholarship, provided they met the academic criteria AND were applying for US citizenship. Besides that, if you think of this issue logically, we already provide taxpayer funding education for illegals, with our K-12 public schools. This position has been enforced by the Supreme Court, and can be justified on economic rationality grounds. If they're here, it's better to be educated than not. The solution isn't to leave them uneducated; the solution is to choke off the flow first.

Ban smoking nationwide? Again, there is nothing in Huckabee's platform that calls for that. He has stated, at the Lance Armstrong Cancer Forum last summer, that if Congress signed a bill banning smoking in public places, that he would sign it, as he did in Arkansas. Based on worker safety issues. It's a reasonable position, though i do agree there is some merit to the federalism criticism that Fred makes.

But the main point of all this is that this Thompson approach doesn't lend itself to a grown-up review of the issues facing us. Thompson earlier called for more substantive Lincoln-Douglas type debates, but then backed off (chickened out?) when Huckabee took him up on the offer. BRING IT ON, i say. His broadside in the Myrtle Beach was the very example of what he had decried about the process. Thompson was right then; what happened?

P.S. Thompson also (tellingly?) flubbed the definition of the "Reagan Coalition", leaving off a big chunk of it. He said the coalition was "limited government and a strong national defense." He made no mention of social conservatives, drawn to Reagan and the GOP for their advocacy of pro-life policies, and a general regard for traditional family values. These voters have flocked to the GOP regardless of their economic position.

Interview Questions

The Huckabee website has a link for bloggers to submit a request for interview. Here's what i would ask…

1. If you are familiar with Christian Just War Theory, how would you assess our current conflict in Iraq in those terms?
   
2. How do you work through which beliefs you hold that should be pursued in public policy, versus those that are better suited for private (or, non-public) pursuit? Are there any general philosophies of government that work well for you to make those calls? (For example, a person might believe that divorce is, more frequently than not, missing the mark spiritually, yet not consider it a problem best solved by prescriptive law.)
   
3. One of the reasons i started this particular blog (and called it what i did) was my utter dissatisfaction with our current process of selecting our political leaders, where it tends to be all about name recognition and the ability to raise mega-millions two years in advance. In most seasons, an underfunded, relatively unknown, but politically talented candidate like you goes nowhere. Any suggestions on how we keep the American political dream alive, where any kid can become president, and, perhaps more importantly, ensure that we don't devolve into a plutocracy?
   
4. As you reflect on your decade-plus tenure leading the state of Arkansas, what do you consider you greatest accomplishment there? Anything you'd do differently (other than the well-hashed case of Wayne DuMond)? What lessons would you take from the Governor's Mansion to the White House (by the way, don't you love it that governors get mansions, while the president just gets a house)?
   
5. One of the criticisms you received from your Arkansas detractors was that you are "thin-skinned". I have to say, I haven't seen that at all during this campaign. Quite the opposite, in fact. Was this ever a fair criticism, and if so, how have you progressed?
   
6. A presidential campaign takes you all over America, meeting tons of ordinary Americans. What have you learned about America in this process so far? What goes under-reported by the media about our country?
   
7. You have made two quite bold proposals in your platform. One, to abolish the IRS and its associated taxes, replacing it with the innovative FairTax. And two, to achieve energy independence by the end of your 2^nd term. Each idea would be worthy of an extended interview by themselves (which i would be glad to conduct someday). But my question now is this: how do you counter or handle the "nattering nabobs of negativity" (to borrow Safire's phrase) who scoff that such things cannot be done?
   
8. There has naturally been a lot of talk of Reagan in this campaign. For me, he is one of the 3 pillars of Republican presidents, the other two being the two guys on Mt. Rushmore – Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt. What do you take from Lincoln and Roosevelt, in terms of your political goals and philosophy, and your leadership style?
   
9. Another potshot taken at you is that you wouldn't fare well in the general election. I don't get that one either. I have analyzed the Pew Political Typologies and their historical voting patterns, and find that you are the MOST electable GOP candidate, due to your ability to hold social conservatives, and pull in key swing groups such as the so-called Upbeats, Pro-Government Conservatives, and Disaffecteds. Take a look at my analysis. Was this intentional, or a natural consequence of meeting the people where they are?
   
10. Another influential read for me has been the Weekly Standard article called "The Party of Sam's Club" (soon to be expanded into a book called Grand New Party). Are you familiar with it, and if so, has it influenced your campaign at all?

Let the Parents Decide

Pinging off Calvinator's post below about school choice, i found this interview with Governor Huckabee by Cybercast News Service (Brent Bozell's news outlet) about his views on education matters. If this issue is important for you, it's worth your time to read the entire interview. There are some tough questions, and you may not agree with everything, but it's a good read. He touches on the constitutionality of a federal Dept. of Education, on school choice & voucher proposals, on prayer in public schools, and similar topics.

Here are some highlights (emphases added)...

Q. On December 12, the Concord Monitor ran a story saying that you had met with the New Hampshire chapter of the National Education Association and that the union was endorsing you. The report said: "Huckabee became the first Republican yesterday to be endorsed by the New Hampshire chapter of the National Education Association. In a short press conference, President Rhonda Wesolowski lauded Huckabee's opposition to school vouchers and his commitment to arts and music education." Three days later, on December 15, Catholic Online published an interview with you, and they asked: "Catholics believe that parents are the first teachers of their children and that they should be able to choose how to extend their teaching office from among all of the available alternatives; public schools, charter schools, private and parochial schools and home schools. What is your position on parental choice in education?" You responded to them: "I support parental choice. Parents are much better able to make those decisions for their children than a government bureaucrat." So, which is it? Do you oppose vouchers, which the New Hampshire NEA believes is your position, or do you support school choice that would even allow children to go to Catholic schools, as you told Catholic Online?

A. There is no inconsistency, because what I believe is, first of all, education is a mom and dad decision, not an Uncle Sam position. We ought to empower parents and let them make the best choices for their kids. I'm probably one of the few candidates you have ever seen that has the recommendation of an NEA chapter, but also has the strong national recommendation of home-schoolers. And the reason is because I ultimately do believe it is a mother-and-father decision. The state's purpose is to empower and enable parents to make the decision they believe is right.

But I believe if you are going to have public schools, make them the best they can be. I don't support federally mandating vouchers. If a state wishes to implement a voucher program, they have to decide how it works, and how well it works, and what the criteria would be.What I don't want to do is to have the federal government coming down and telling all 50 states here is how you are going to fund education, here is what vouchers are going to look like. Because in some states, for example mine, it would be very problematic to create a statewide voucher system when most of our schools are rural, they're small, they are miles from another school, the economies of scale simply wouldn't necessarily make it that easy to implement a widespread voucher system. But if local districts wished to do it, if states wish to do it, I think that's fine. It goes back to the basic concept that this is a state's decision.

On home-schools and his record in Arkansas:
When I was governor, I passed some of the friendliest home-school legislation in the country. I was the first governor in the history of America to appoint a home-school parent to state board of education. She served as one of the best members we ever had on the state board. We made it so that parents had more choices. We improved charter schools, and expanded charter schools.

More about the Murphy Commission voucher proposal:
The one area that really did not go well was the idea of implementing vouchers. And, again, there were two reasons. Let me get back to them. One was the opposition we had from Christian school administrators, who were fearful that once you take government money, you take government control. Many of them said they would lose their distinctive nature if they were forced to be under government regulations and government mandates that they frankly didn't want. They did not want that level of interference.

But the second thing that happened, or would potentially happen, was you would have students who if they came to the school without a level that met the full tuition, one of two things: they either then say, look, you are going to have to make up the difference as a private school or we'll sue for discrimination, or, if they win that, then the only people able to go were those who could subsidize the rest of the voucher, and most of the students in my state would have been unable to access it, because there were only a few districts large enough, with the economies of scale, that could have actually implemented the full-scale voucher system.