Huckabee Endorses Reagan

The Calvinator mentions the great answer by Governor Huckabee in the debate last night. Here's the clip...

California Debate

The debate was structured to buy into the fiction that this is only a two-man race between Governor Romney and Senator McCain, but if I have one hope coming form it, it would be that everyone could hear Governor Huckabee's response to the final question of the night. When each candidate was asked if Ronald Reagan would have endorsed them for President, Mike said:

I think it would be incredibly presumptuous and even arrogant for me to try to suggest what Ronald Reagan would do, that he would endorse any of us against the others.

Let me just say this, I'm not going to pretend he would endorse me. I wish he would. I would love that, but I endorse him, and I'm going to tell you why.

It wasn't just his specific policies, but Ronald Reagan was something more than just a policy wonk. He was a man who loved this country, and he inspired this country to believe in itself again.

What made Ronald Reagan a great president was not just the intricacies of his policies, though they were good policies. It was that he loved America and saw it as a good nation and a great nation because of the greatness of its people.

And if we can recapture that, that's when we recapture the Reagan spirit. It's that spirit that has a can-do attitude about America's futures and that makes us love our country whether we're Democrats or Republicans. And that's what I believe Ronald Reagan did -- he brought this country back together and made us believe in ourselves.

And whether he believes in us, I hope we still believe in those things which made him a great leader and a great American.

When I can find some video of it, I'll add it. The best part was that this was the very last statement made by any of the candidates in the debate.

(Semi) Live Blogging the FL Debate

Bullets added as debate rolls on, with more recent comments at the top...

• Awesome segment there with the Governor talking over and standing up to Russert's pessimism. "That's the problem in America. Everyone talks about what we can't do; we need to talk about what we can do, whether it's overhauling the tax system or reaching energy independence." Not an exact quote. That's leadership. That's exactly right, Governor!
• There's a 10-12% inflation rate, Dr. Paul? I guess if all you spend money on is surgery, and don't spend anything on groceries or phone bills and such.
• There's the Bill Clinton mention. I win some points at Politico's Kingmaker.
• I agree with McCain about the gang of 14. And i agree with Medved in general that the same goofs who are lying about Huckabee's record are lying about McCain's record.
• Rudy is stealing Mike's lines about energy independence?
• Does Mitt fib again about the 2nd amendment?
• There's that Kemp/Gramm roll-call again! LOL.
• Ron Paul is an economy wonk at heart, and he can't get away from that.
• Pretty good defense of the FairTax, and he mentioned that current prices already reflect embedded taxes.
• Interesting that McCain is asking Governor Huckabee about the FairTax. This is not how i expected this segment to go. It almost sounds like a set-up, like perhaps these guys had a pre-arranged deal. We'll see when Huckabee asks his question.
• If Rudy is crafty, he would turn Mitt's (long-awaited) question around on him, and say that one thing we cannot do is have American companies, like Mitt's Bain Capital, partnering with China to undermine our military independence.
• Mitt is supposed to ask a question, but he's making a speech.
• Huckabee should have talked about radical Islamic fascists, not Easter Eggs.
• Good answer by Giuliani about the 60% poll (the hindsighters who say the Iraq war was not worth it).
• So Romney put together a National Guard version of a GI bill, but he's not a big-government conservative? Now, i don't think he is, but we should use the same standard for Governor Huckabee.
• Huckabee read my mind. It's not about the richie-riches.
• Who's doing their 2010 budget already?
• Russert references the "prosperity gap" for the GOP. This is the killer, mostly unspoken news for the GOP this year. It's not just Bush; it's this general belief among Americans that the Democrats are the better party for the economy. If the GOP is to have any hope at all, they HAVE to close this gap, and it won't happen with a business-as-usual Republican (ie, Romney). It will take someone who can connect with the middle class.
• A 9/11 reference for Giuliani, but it comes from Brian Williams, not Rudy. Oops, no, of course, Rudy goes in depth about a ground zero story.
• Two hits already on Sarbanes-Oxley. Good! Being in the corporate world, i see SOX as more government meddling and a bureaucratic boondoggle. Companies are spending enormous resources to stay in compliance. This, to me, is worse regulation, in terms of real impact, than the reviled McCain-Feingold.
• McCain has taken to this roll-call of fiscal conservatives who are supporting him. That's cool and all (i'm a big fan of Jack Kemp, to take one example), but i doubt it resonates with the average voter. I'm into this stuff and even i don't recognize all those names, but if i'm an average voter, i'm sure those are all rich old white guys.
• Romney asserts that he faced a $3 billion budget deficit. But this is misleading, as the Boston Globe has repeatedly pointed out. There's some truth to Romney's success story, but it is way overblown. You'd think a Harvard MBA wouldn't need to resume-pad.
• Interesting proposal from Governor Huckabee to widen I-95 by 2 lanes. Totally avoids the bait to attack Romney. And an intriguing point about whose economy - ours or China's? - will be most stimulated by these so-called stimulus packages.

The Reports of Huckabee's (Political) Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.

Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.

For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).

Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.

Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.

I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.

The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).

Arthur Branch Lives!

The previously moribund and laconic Fred Thompson fired a broadside against Governor Huckabee in the recent South Carolina debate. Reading from notes, Thompson catalogued a litany of supposed "sins" by the apostate Huckabee. It's true that he doesn't hew to the rabid orthodoxy of talk-show conservatism, and that he confounds the elites. But Thompson's shot represents part of what we decry about the political process. It's barely better than the freak show, reducing nuanced policy positions to half-truth soundbites, in a format that does not lend itself to response. It's time to grow up.

My first reaction was "well, looks like Arthur Branch nailed his lines, and on the first take, too." The outburst reminded me of someone who half-wakes from a dream, and loudly and urgently blurts out something incomprehensible. A mom would sooth, "that's ok sweetie, just go back to sleep."

But that's just me being snarky.

As for the charges themselves, The Calvinator takes on one of them below – school choice and vouchers. As for the NEA of New Hampshire support, i find it foolhardy to eschew the support of a large group of Americans. I'm glad that some of these unions are recognizing that a large portion of their members are conservative, and wish to express their support of a conservative candidate, not just the same-old Democratic entrenchment. Reagan understood that, garnering the endorsement of the Teamsters and PATCO, and 44% of the union vote in the 1980 election. McCain echoed that approach in the 2000 primary.

Blame America first? How can anyone honestly look at Huckabee's platform and conclude that? It's just an immature bromide. I've never heard any leader talk more authentically and passionately about the founding fathers, about the Declaration of Independence. Huckabee is insistent about American sovereignty. He was the first candidate to come out strongly against the Law of the Sea Treaty, due to concerns about our sovereignty. He talks about the pride of knowing you're in a country that people want to break into, not out of. Huckabee loves America.

Guantanamo? Here are Huckabee's comments in a press release from December. He advocates the same position as John McCain, which is that if the legal assumption bears out (awaiting a SCOTUS ruling) that no additional rights would be granted, then there is tremendous symbolic benefit from closing Guantanamo and moving the combatants to Ft. Leavenworth. By the way, i couldn't find any online evidence that Fred Thompson has visited Guantanamo for a first-hand view, as the other candidates have, including Huckabee.

Taxpayer-funded programs for illegals? There is nothing in Huckabee's platform that would do that. In fact, his immigration plan is tough enough for the endorsement of the founder of the Minutemen, Jim Gilchrist. The reference is surely to the college scholarship plan that Huckabee had in Arkansas, where children of illegals could qualify for a state college scholarship, provided they met the academic criteria AND were applying for US citizenship. Besides that, if you think of this issue logically, we already provide taxpayer funding education for illegals, with our K-12 public schools. This position has been enforced by the Supreme Court, and can be justified on economic rationality grounds. If they're here, it's better to be educated than not. The solution isn't to leave them uneducated; the solution is to choke off the flow first.

Ban smoking nationwide? Again, there is nothing in Huckabee's platform that calls for that. He has stated, at the Lance Armstrong Cancer Forum last summer, that if Congress signed a bill banning smoking in public places, that he would sign it, as he did in Arkansas. Based on worker safety issues. It's a reasonable position, though i do agree there is some merit to the federalism criticism that Fred makes.

But the main point of all this is that this Thompson approach doesn't lend itself to a grown-up review of the issues facing us. Thompson earlier called for more substantive Lincoln-Douglas type debates, but then backed off (chickened out?) when Huckabee took him up on the offer. BRING IT ON, i say. His broadside in the Myrtle Beach was the very example of what he had decried about the process. Thompson was right then; what happened?

P.S. Thompson also (tellingly?) flubbed the definition of the "Reagan Coalition", leaving off a big chunk of it. He said the coalition was "limited government and a strong national defense." He made no mention of social conservatives, drawn to Reagan and the GOP for their advocacy of pro-life policies, and a general regard for traditional family values. These voters have flocked to the GOP regardless of their economic position.

The FoxNews Debate

Governor Huckabee didn't seem to do himself much good in tonight's debate, but I think he didn't hurt himself too badly, either. The focus group on FoxNews seemed to think that he waffled on the first question. I wish he had been a bit more forceful and flipped Romney's contention that he had to raise fees to maintain services, but I didn't see Huckabee as waffling too much.

One woman said about Romney, "He speaks off the cuff and is very, very well-versed." I don't think she even understood that her statement was internally contradictory.

The best hope for New Hampshire is a third place finish, and currently the Governor is consistently polling in third. It will also help if McCain can hold off Romney.

The Michigan Debate

Much has already been written about yesterday's Republican debate in Michigan, focusing on economic policy. For instance, you can find several columns over at RealClearPolitics. And Anthony Palmer brings his typically good analysis over at The 7-10.

I don't have much to add. When i watched online (from work, catching only snippets between work stuff), i felt Huckabee was tight, pressing - using those terms as you might in sports. Trying to hit a home run, if you will. After watching the rebroadcast last night, i softened on that view, although Mike didn't hit a home run this time. He did about as well as he could with the limited opportunities, including the brutal assignment of having to talk about SCHIP.

I did note the contrast between his answer and that of Fred Thompson on that ethanol question. From the transcript, first the question...

Governor Huckabee, the federal government has spent years and billions of dollars promoting ethanol but the result has been a glut of ethanol and gas prices that are still at record levels. Wouldn't it be better to just let the free market determine whether ethanol makes economic sense or not?

Here's Huckabee's answer, blending passion, a goal, humor, and insight:

"I think ethanol and all biofuels are going to be an important part of the future energy needs of the country. But the accelerated pace at which we get there is critical for national security, as well as for our own economic
interest. The fact is, we keep talking about 15-, 20-, 30-year plans; that's nonsense.If we don't start saying we'll do this within a decade, we're never, ever going to get there. And we need to approach it the same way that a car does at the Nascar pit-stop -- you rush in, you get it done because you have to.

We're in a race. We're in a race for our lives against people who want to kill us. And a lot of the reasons that we are entangled in the Middle East is because our money buys their oil, that money ends up coming back to us in the way of Islamo-fascism terrorists.

We've got to come to the place where everything is on the table: nuclear, biofuels, ethanol, wind, solar -- any and everything this country can produce. We once had a president who said, "Let's go to the moon in 10 years," and we were there in eight. And we did that when we started with the technology of bottle rockets, when we got the thing launched. And we all saw that we can do it.

But we can't do it when we create this sense of: 'We'll wait until another generation.' We can't wait until another generation. Instead of running it like Nascar, we've been running it like taking the family station wagon in for letting Goober and Gomer take a look at it when they get time, under the shade tree. So it's critical that for our own interest, economically and from a point of national security, that we become energy independent and commit to doing it within a decade."

Contrast that with Thompson's answer, in dire need of a political gibberish to English translation:

"Ultimately, it'll be the free market, but I think, like the governor says, I think that we're in a situation now where we've got to use everything that's available to us. I think renewables and alternatives are a part of that picture. I don't look for it to last forever. When the industry gets up and running and on its feet again, I don't see the need for what we're doing now.

But you have to look at the bigger picture. Most economic downturns over the last 25 years have been preceded by a spike in oil prices. There's probably plenty of oil out there for the indefinite future. But price is an issue.

And that brings in the whole question of the importance of stability in the world. The United States, since the end of World War II, has been a force for stability and democracy, which helps bring about stability, for a long, long time. Our policies with regard to places like the Middle East and Iraq right now are very important with regard to the very issue we're talking about, because instability and crises in the wrong parts of the world are going to cause dramatic results in the upward movement of oil prices, and that could be devastating to our economy."

I believe the main take-away from this debate is not the debut of Fred Thompson, though. It is the shift in tone and strategy for Romney & Giuliani. The two apparently have decided that it's down to one or the other, so they're going to start attacking each other. Paraphrasing Huckabee (i can't find the reference) in post-debate coverage, A & B can slug it out and take each other out, leaving the path open for C. Given his lack of funds right now, it may be best to not be in the top 2 and have to worry about attack ads, or wasting time in silly tit-for-tat spats.