Romney Should Drop Out

The conventional wisdom from the meanstream media (stole that from another poster at Huck's Army) is that the GOP race is down to two people – McCain vs. Romney. Mitt, of course, has seized on this theme and has asserted that a vote for Governor Huckabee is a vote for John McCain. If this is truly to become a two-man race, and the goal is to defeat the momentum-laden McCain (assuming last night's woeful performance in the debate didn't stop his momentum in its tracks), then the best thing to do is coalesce around the most conservative candidate, the most electable candidate, the candidate with the most upside. That candidate is not Mitt Romney; it's Mike Huckabee.

Most Conservative

Mitt likes to proclaim himself the standard-bearer on the 3-legged stool of conservatism, with the 3 legs being social, fiscal, and national security issues. Like he triumphantly proclaimed last night that of course Ronald Reagan would endorse him. But just because i can slap on a glove and cleats doesn't mean you should put me in at shortstop. Is Mitt Romney the Sidd Finch of politics? Is there any there there?

Consider the 3 leg formulation.

• Social – even if we believe that Romney has finally hit his conservative political puberty and has truly converted to the prolife position (at most it's a position with him, not a cause) and other social conservative bona fides, he would still lag far behind Governor Huckabee's convictions, record, and prospects on this leg. A big win for Huckabee
  
• National Security – Like almost all governors, you'll find little directly relevant foreign policy experience for either candidate. This would turn on judgment, toughness, and leadership. I'm not impressed with Romney's CEO experience and so don't give the leadership advantage that he surely thinks he owns. I believe Huckabee has better judgment and would be tougher with aggressive regimes.
  
• Fiscal – Romney believes this is his trump card. But here's your trump card...
  

TAX FREEDOM DAY

A tax freedom day is the day in the calendar when you've worked long enough in the new year to afford to pay all your taxes. It's a sad commentary on our times, but this date is usually in April, and seems to fall later and later (see table 1 at the link) all the time. In 2007, it is estimated that the national tax freedom day was April 30th. So let's compare the records of Governors Huckabee and Romney in their respective states, looking at the Tax Freedom Day when they took office vs. when each left office.

Governor/State		TFD – Start		TFD - End	Net Effect
Huckabee / AR		April 22		April 22	Same
Romney / MA		April 21		May 6	15 days WORSE

If you don't mind working an extra two weeks for the government, then by all means believe the talking heads that Romney is the fiscal conservative.

Most Electable

I covered this in my Typologies post, showing the polling evidence that Governor Huckabee would be a better general election candidate than Romney. You can also look at the head to head polls compiled at RCP. Against Clinton, Huckabee fares 2-3 points better than Romney does. Against Obama, Huckabee also fares better than does Romney. Granted, neither candidate is polling well against those two right now, but this has been a consistent pattern – Huckabee trumps Romney. Governor Huckabee is more electable than Governor Romney, based on all the evidence we have to study.

Most Upside

Romney has had the powerful two-pronged advantage of both MONEY and MEDIA behind him, and still hasn't won a contested primary other than Michigan, which is practically home for him, given that his father was a popular governor there.

Think about it. Romney has outspent even his well-funded rivals by orders of magnitude that boggle the mind. Millions upon millions on negative ads, distortions of the records of the other candidates. He has all the power of talk radio behind him, all the conservative establishment media serving as surrogate mouthpieces for his campaign.

And what does he have to show for it? If he hasn't been able to beat McCain up until now, why would he all of sudden start doing it next Tuesday or beyond? If anyone should drop out, it should be Romney. The conservative establishment should try something else. That something else is, of course, Governor Huckabee.

Ahead of the Curve

Don't you want your president to be forward-thinking? To drive change, not merely tag along. To put forth innovative ideas, not rehash the same old platitudes. In short, to be a leader and not a follower. Of course you do.

Governor Mike Huckabee is just that. Consider what we've seen on the campaign trail, as Governor Huckabee has led the conversation on many issues, and other candidates have trailed or parroted his ideas. Or will soon.

• The most innovative and bold idea on any candidate's platform – Republican or Democrat – in the FairTax.
  
• Energy independence within 8 years & an understanding that it is a national security issue
  
• Exploration of switchgrass as an alternate biofuel
  
• Stimulating OUR economy – not China's – by investing in our infrastructure. Namely, to start with, widening I-95.
  
• Recognizing, several months ahead of the other GOP candidates and the pundits, that the economy was weakening (about a minute into the video)
  
• A focus on actual health, not just health insurance or the medical system
  
• A call for total government transparency
  
• A bill of rights for our military veterans
  
• A detailed plan to address illegal immigration
  
• A focus on whole-brain education
  
• Closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay, a position for which he was criticized by Fred Thompson, only to have the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs come out just a few days later saying the exact same thing, agreeing with Governor Huckabee
  

The Governor is stereotyped as a bumpkin', a view that i count as bigotry. Prejudice against southerners, against evangelicals. But he is leading the intellectual charge.

Governor Huckabee at Heritage

I am a long-time member of (more than that, i make an automatic monthly contribution to) the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank based in Washington DC. Their primary purpose is to assist political leaders, particularly Senators and House members, craft public policy that comports with conservative principles. Well, heck, here is their mission statement.

Founded in 1973, The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institute - a think tank - whose mission is to formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.

Early in his tenure as Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee presented a lecture at Heritage called "Cutting Taxes and Other Great Ideas for Congress". I have highlighted some good excerpts…

• In Arkansas…, there are conservatives who believe that government really does need to get smaller, not larger; who believe that the best government is the most local government; who believe that taxes should be smaller; and who try to bring more efficiencies into what we do in government. And the good news is that this message of smaller, more efficient and accountable government is selling in our state.
  
• The executive branch cannot accomplish anything without working with the legislative branch, sitting down with them, negotiating, and treating the members with respect because they were elected just like I was.
  
• One of the greatest challenges that I faced as governor of a state like Arkansas was that for 162 years the tax burden on Arkansans always went up. It never went down… But, for the first time in 1997 and again this session, the old paradigm was no longer valid. The big battle was no longer, "Which taxes will we raise and by how much?" but, "Which taxes will we cut and by how much?"
  
• We passed a comprehensive income tax relief package, marking the first time in Arkansas' history that the state had seen a major, broad-based income tax cut. This $90.6 million tax relief measure lessened the tax burden on Arkansans in many ways.
  
  • Ended the income tax marriage penalty
    
  • Below the poverty line? No income tax
    
  • Ended bracket creep by indexing to inflation
    
  • Doubled the allowable child care credit
    
  • Eliminated the capital gains tax on sale of primary home
    
• In both 1997 and 1999, we produced balanced budgets with tax relief in the budgets. In other words, we budgeted for tax relief. By finding savings to pay for new programs, we proved it was possible to propose new and needed programs by reallocating resources while still providing tax relief. This has never before been accomplished in Arkansas.
  
• Character-based education has become a very important component of our education structure in Arkansas, and school districts have options on how they implement it… Children need to understand there are consequences for living out virtues, and we've already seen some pretty convincing results: discipline problems are going down and the learning atmosphere has improved dramatically.
  
• In addition to making it possible, through the Fair Dismissal Act, to get rid of teachers who are not doing the job and who are violating their contract, we also passed a bill that will provide financial incentives up to $2,000 a year of additional money for teachers who show extraordinary excellence in teaching.
  
• 44 percent of the people on welfare a year and a half ago are now off the welfare rolls and are in jobs and working.
  
• These are some of the things we've done, and they are proof positive that cutting taxes, making government performance-driven and accountable to the people, and bringing some sense of real fairness to government's overall approach is making life better for all our citizens.
  

Now does that look anything like a liberal to you? Don't believe the nonsense you hear from cranky political opponents. And consider that, around the same time Governor Huckabee delivered this address and set his state on a new path of conservatism, John McCain and Fred Thompson were in the Senate cooking up some new bitter brew called campaign finance reform, and this same duo would soon be strategizing to make McCain the 2000 GOP nominee for president.

Arkansas CEOs: Look Past "Shallow Rhetoric"

Six corporate leaders based in Arkansas today encouraged voters to "look past the shallow rhetoric of yet another campaign season" and truly check out the stellar record of leadership from Governor Huckabee in their state.

Here's the entire statement (emphasis added)...

Columbia, SC - Today, the following businessmen from Arkansas released a statement in support of former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee: Scott T. Ford, President and CEO, Alltel Corporation; Warren A. Stephens, President and CEO, Stephens Inc.; Madison Murphy, Former Chairman, Murphy Oil Corporation; John Tyson, Chairman of the Board, Tyson Foods, Inc; and French Hill, Chairman and CEO, Delta Trust and Banking Corporation:

"We are a traditionally bi-partisan group of executives of several of the largest corporations headquartered in the State of Arkansas, each with considerable exposure to the Administration of Governor Mike Huckabee. Of late, Governor Huckabee has attracted what we believe to be unwarranted criticism regarding his business record."

"Our experience with Governor Huckabee indicates that he not only values greatly the freedoms of religion and liberty, but of the free market as well. He is an atypical leader who garnered the respect of not only the professional business community but of the working men and women across our State as well."

"When he became our Governor, he inherited our long sub-standard education system, infrastructure, and regulatory climate. Under his leadership, we were able to grow our businesses, increase our employment, reduce our litigation exposure and enjoy, along with all of our fellow Arkansans, a healthier economy, improved schools, updated highways, and new healthcare delivery facilities."

"In our support of Governor Huckabee's truly conservative, small government business outlook and his pragmatic, yet compassionate style of governing, we invite you to look past the shallow rhetoric of yet another campaign season to see what we have experienced first hand - that with the right political leadership in place, businesses and citizens can jointly prosper and as they do, they contribute so much more to the economic and societal fabric of a community than simply tax revenues."

Issue: Economics

I'm not going to type a long defense of Governor Huckabee's Economic record or plan. Instead, I'm simply going to point everyone to the video of Governor Huckabee's speech to the Detroit Economic Club last Friday.

There should be a new rule that any critic must address what the Governor said in this speech before being allowed to attack him as a "Liberal."


Part 1:



Part 2:



Part 3:



Part 4:



Part 5:



This is one of the best speeches I have ever heard, and I have two degrees in Speech Communication, so I've studied some of the best.

Interview Questions

The Huckabee website has a link for bloggers to submit a request for interview. Here's what i would ask…

1. If you are familiar with Christian Just War Theory, how would you assess our current conflict in Iraq in those terms?
   
2. How do you work through which beliefs you hold that should be pursued in public policy, versus those that are better suited for private (or, non-public) pursuit? Are there any general philosophies of government that work well for you to make those calls? (For example, a person might believe that divorce is, more frequently than not, missing the mark spiritually, yet not consider it a problem best solved by prescriptive law.)
   
3. One of the reasons i started this particular blog (and called it what i did) was my utter dissatisfaction with our current process of selecting our political leaders, where it tends to be all about name recognition and the ability to raise mega-millions two years in advance. In most seasons, an underfunded, relatively unknown, but politically talented candidate like you goes nowhere. Any suggestions on how we keep the American political dream alive, where any kid can become president, and, perhaps more importantly, ensure that we don't devolve into a plutocracy?
   
4. As you reflect on your decade-plus tenure leading the state of Arkansas, what do you consider you greatest accomplishment there? Anything you'd do differently (other than the well-hashed case of Wayne DuMond)? What lessons would you take from the Governor's Mansion to the White House (by the way, don't you love it that governors get mansions, while the president just gets a house)?
   
5. One of the criticisms you received from your Arkansas detractors was that you are "thin-skinned". I have to say, I haven't seen that at all during this campaign. Quite the opposite, in fact. Was this ever a fair criticism, and if so, how have you progressed?
   
6. A presidential campaign takes you all over America, meeting tons of ordinary Americans. What have you learned about America in this process so far? What goes under-reported by the media about our country?
   
7. You have made two quite bold proposals in your platform. One, to abolish the IRS and its associated taxes, replacing it with the innovative FairTax. And two, to achieve energy independence by the end of your 2^nd term. Each idea would be worthy of an extended interview by themselves (which i would be glad to conduct someday). But my question now is this: how do you counter or handle the "nattering nabobs of negativity" (to borrow Safire's phrase) who scoff that such things cannot be done?
   
8. There has naturally been a lot of talk of Reagan in this campaign. For me, he is one of the 3 pillars of Republican presidents, the other two being the two guys on Mt. Rushmore – Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt. What do you take from Lincoln and Roosevelt, in terms of your political goals and philosophy, and your leadership style?
   
9. Another potshot taken at you is that you wouldn't fare well in the general election. I don't get that one either. I have analyzed the Pew Political Typologies and their historical voting patterns, and find that you are the MOST electable GOP candidate, due to your ability to hold social conservatives, and pull in key swing groups such as the so-called Upbeats, Pro-Government Conservatives, and Disaffecteds. Take a look at my analysis. Was this intentional, or a natural consequence of meeting the people where they are?
   
10. Another influential read for me has been the Weekly Standard article called "The Party of Sam's Club" (soon to be expanded into a book called Grand New Party). Are you familiar with it, and if so, has it influenced your campaign at all?

More on Taxes

One thing that most people either don't realize or conveniently ignore when criticizing Huckabee's record as Governor is that when he ascended to the office, he inherited a state that was broke and broken. Huckabee followed Jim Guy Tucker, who had immediately succeeded Bill Clinton. Under Clinton and Tucker, Arkansas had failed to maintain the basic infrastructure of the state. The schools were in shambles—often literally. The roads were in shambles—often literally. The money to fix these inherited problems had to come from somewhere. Raising some taxes (while lowering others) allowed the State of Arkansas to make necessary improvements to areas that are the proper province of a State Government. It's not as if he was raising the tax burden on an already over-taxed State like Massachusetts.

The truth about Taxes

Share this with your friends who are buying into the hype about Governor Huckabee's tax record in Arkansas.

The Dangers of the FairTax Platform

This is not about the merits of the FairTax itself, but about whether Mike Huckabee will be helped or not by his advocacy of the radical tax plan to replace most all current taxes with a national sales tax. I believe it is a dangerous, risky stance for Mike. Here's why…

• While not nearly as complicated as I expected it to be, the FairTax is such a radical change in our tax policy that the average voter will not immediately grasp what it's about. Even some should-know-better reporters are spouting falsehoods about it. To the extent that it is reducible to a soundbite, it is much more likely for that soundbite to be a negative one used by opponents of Huckabee and/or the FairTax.
  
• Continuing that point, detractors will make no effort to fairly portray the plan, even if they do understand that. We already see the merging of these 2 points with media assertions that the plan is overly regressive and, most damaging, that it will cause prices to rise by over 20%. Neither is actually true, and the latter charge is not even close to being true.
  
• The point about illegal immigrants and under-the-table earners now paying their fair share is a rhetorical winner, but it can be intellectually challenged by the expectation that a new underground economy would arise. The blackest of black markets.
  
• Given the criticism of Mike thus far about his record in Arkansas with taxes, and the skepticism by hardcore fiscal conservatives that he is bona fide, the FairTax is especially problematic for him. Given the first 2 points about confusion and obfuscation, voters, unable to sort it all out with facts, unsure whom to believe, might use the FairTax as a sign that Mike's opponents are correct. It does require a huge outlay of federal funds with its prebate (what makes it not regressive). Of course, the prebate is essentially a refund of taxes paid, so financially for the government it is not an outlay, but a wash. Will voters take the time and effort to figure that out, or will they be hoodwinked by devious ads and mailers saying "see, we told you this guy was a big-government conservative. See how much money he wants to spend."?
  
• Likewise, detractors will deviously assert that the FairTax is a big tax hike. "See, we told you this guy was Tax Hike Mike. He wants you to pay 23% more for your groceries. Will you even be able to afford that next new car?" In a soundbite world, can you make voters understand that CURRENT prices already reflect the cost of taxes, and that the FairTax wouldn't cause prices to rise materially, if at all?
  

Keywords: Take Control & Keep It Simple

The best pithy argument for the FairTax is not the abolishment of the IRS (even though that is a catchy line), but about Americans being more in control, and about making taxes simpler to understand. Fiscal conservatives talk about "starving the beast" of government, but how do you do that with an income tax (not to mention all those other federal taxes)? For most of us, we can't just stop making an income, so we have to keep feeding the beast. Sure, we can seek out tax shelters and such, but generally speaking those are marginal effects, and so the beast gets fed. With a sales tax, effectively kicking in above and beyond basic needs, taxpayers do have more control over how much food to put in the bowl, by way of discretionary spending. Of course, there are macro-economic impacts to those spending decisions which should not be ignored, but I would argue that for the most part, these would be purchases delayed, not purchases avoided altogether.

How would that work? Well, it might not work, given how hard it is for the federal government to pay attention to us. But you do what you can, and if you don't like the way the government is operating, or disagree profoundly with how it spends its money, you can "vote with your wallet". A drop in the ocean, it may feel like, but no less important than your single vote among millions. Even if there is no direct impact or benefit, there would still be a psychological or symbolic benefit for taxpayers. In short, a sales tax is more in line with the precepts of "of the people, by the people" than is the income tax.

Mike should also hammer away at the idea of making taxes simpler. You shouldn't need a CPA to understand how your government is funded. The current system is so complex that even the experts can't figure it out. Such a setup fosters discord and distrust that weasels will not pay their fair share. It breeds anxiety that the taxpayer is a sucker unless he ponies up for expert help.

Both of these rhetorical approaches connect at the point of governmental transparency, a big hot button for young voters. And so while the FairTax platform for Huckabee presents some difficult challenges, it also affords an opportunity to connect with voters if handled correctly. Governor Huckabee has demonstrated an ability to lead and persuade on issues important to him, and I have confidence in him on this subject, despite its risk.