Of Miracles and Math

Governor Huckabee quipped on Meet the Press last Sunday that he didn't major in math, but in miracles. He was, of course, talking about his delegate prospects. I quipped, before last Saturday's wins in Kansas and Louisiana, that Mike had "about as much of a chance as David had against Goliath." I almost majored in math, but i believe in miracles, too. The boy-with-slingshot miracles, though, not the next-time-i-play-basketball-this-5foot-10inch-white-guy-will-be-able-to-dunk kind of miracles. So which type of miracle does Governor Huckabee need, now that he lost all 3 Potomac primaries this week?

As many have already pointed out, the media's proclamation that Huckabee has no mathematical chance is pure bunk. CNN, which has been quite a solid source this election season, even played around with their fancy computer screens, and said that even if Huckabee wins the remaining primaries, that John McCain will still get enough delegates to clinch. I could only surmise that they failed to actually read the rules about how delegates are awarded in the remaining states. I did (at green papers). Heck, they only had to look at a state like Georgia, where Governor Huckabee got only 34% of the primary vote, enough to lead the way but only a few points ahead of McCain's 32% and Romney's 30%. A squeaker win, but one that delivered 45 delegates to Huckabee to only 3 to McCain. So, a 2 point victory led to garnering over 90% of the delegates. Other states – not all, but some – work in a similar fashion. That's just sloppy journalism to not consider all this.

So this is an exercise worth looking into, particularly for the true believers. What do i find?

Likely Case

In this scenario, i went through each remaining state and allocated delegates based on each state's rule and my reasonable expectations for primary voting outcomes. This was mostly based on the type of results we've seen from Super Tuesday forward. McCain does well in so-called blue states, and Huckabee does well in so-called red states. The result is not miracle-friendly. McCain gets enough delegates for an outright majority, even before awarding any super-delegates or counting the delegates from US territories. McCain just basically needs to hold serve and cruise on to the nomination. This is, by far, the likely outcome. Neither i, nor the Huckabee campaign, have any delusions otherwise.

Best Case

In this scenario, we reallocated future delegates assuming that Governor Huckabee starts to dominate in most states. Two of the next primaries (WI and OH), for example, are winner-take-all by a combination of congressional district and statewide votes. If Huckabee can beat McCain in each district, even if by a fraction, then he could take all 128 delegates from these two states. Let's look at all the states…

• Wisconsin – WTA by congressional district (CD) and statewide – 40 delegates – all to Huckabee
  
• Ohio – WTA by CD and statewide – 88 delegates – all to Huckabee
  
• Rhode Island – proportional – 20 – McCain wins 45-40
  
• Texas – funky mix by CD and statewide – 140 – Huckabee needs to win 50%+ statewide and in most CDs, delivering 123 of the 140 delegates
  
• Vermont – WTA – 17 – all to McCain
  
• Mississippi – WTA by CD and statewide, if get at least 50% - 39 – another state where we need at least 50% of the vote
  
• Pennsylvania – very strange rules, essentially rendering delegates unpledged – 74 – if get these other groundswells, could take 2/3 here
  
• Indiana – another odd mix of CD and convention – 57 – win outright with 50%+ and get 50 of the delegates (just an estimate)
  
• North Carolina – proportion – 69 – presume MH gets 60% of the vote here and the rest of the proportional states
  
• Nebraska – primary vote is advisory only, delegates picked at convention – 33 – need 2/3 of these
  
• Hawaii – convention – 20 – only get 6 in this McCain state
  
• Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho, New Mexico, South Dakota – all proportional – total of 166 – as stated above, assume MH gets 60% of the vote
  

Best Case Outcome

This scenario leaves John McCain with just under 1000 delegates, and Mike Huckabee with just over 800 delegates, enough to broker the convention. But even at that point, we'd still need something close to a miracle. He'd need to secure the delegates from all the other candidates other than McCain. He'd need to ensure that the super delegates don't just groundswell over to McCain too early. It's hard for me to imagine what sort of deal that Huckabee could make with Romney to get his delegates once they are unbound. Paul's delegates are likely to be intransigent.

It's hard to see the light at the end of this tunnel, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying. I'll expound on that in a future post.

Delegate Math

Does Governor Huckabee really have to get 82% of the remaining Delegates (as Karl Rove claimed on FoxNews' Hannity & Colmes) to stop Senator McCain from being the Republican Nominee?

The answer: No, he doesn't have to. He only has to get about 60%, and yes, that is very possible.

I see so many different delegate counts that I'm not sure who knows, but I'll use the Real Clear Politics numbers.

Right now:

McCain 724

Total Delegates awarded so far: 1247 (Actually, I know this number is wrong because RCP is showing delegates for states that had a caucus or primary but that award delegates at some later stage. I think all of them are in Romney's column, though)

Delegates remaining to be awarded: 1133

Delegates McCain needs to be the nominee: 467 (1191-724)

Percentage McCain must receive to be the nominee: 41.22%

Percentage Huckabee must receive to take this to the Convention: 58.78%

If Huckabee gets about 82% of remaining Delegates, he wins outright going into the Convention. I don't expect that to happen, but blocking McCain is in the realm of possibility.

Quick Postgame Report

Not much to post right now, due to jury duty (my first ever) today taking up my time and the Duke/Carolina game tonight taking up my thoughts, but wanted to get a quick note or two in...

As usual, it's hard to find a definite source for delegate counts. I wanted to compare the actual results to my predictions. I checked my spreadsheet of predictions, and found i had correctly predicted the winner of 16 of the 21 super tuesday contests for the GOP. My misses were (with predicted / actual):

• Missouri (Huckabee/McCain) - oh so close!
• Alaska (Paul/Romney) - threw a bone to Paul supporters, half in fun
• Minnesota (McCain/Romney) - Mitt's caucus organization prevails
• North Dakota (McCain/Romney)
• Oklahoma (Huckabee/McCain) - my birthplace lets me down

So delegate counts don't figure to be too far off. I was, as i suspected, too optimistic about Huckabee, even though he far exceeded media expectations.

P.S. Go Blue Devils!

Mitt Romney's Latest Lie

I believe that the word "lie" is thrown around way too often these days. We call
things lies that don't really fit the definition. However, the latest campaign
dirty trick from Mitt Romney is a classic lie.

It appears that Romney is making calls to voters and telling them that the
Republican race is now a two-man contest. The text of the calls is this:

Hello, This is Governor Mitt Romney. The race for the Republican nomination for
president is now a two person race. Our party, I believe, is at a critical
crossroads, and the future of conservatism is very much at stake. I believe the
choice before us is quite clear: Do we support the liberal policies of the
Washington D.C. crowd, or do we want to fight for the conservative principles
that have defined our party for more than a century? I believe that our policies
have to remain rooted in conservative thought. Together, you and I can begin to
change Washington. That's why I need your vote on Tuesday

The fact is that Mike Huckabee is still very much in this race. As oso diablo
and I have both calculated, unless Romney's and the media's efforts to undermine
him work, Mike should be in second place in Delegates after Tuesday. If those
efforts do work, then the media will come out next week and say, "See, we told
you Huckabee wasn't a viable candidate," but the truth will be that they
torpedoed his campaign with this false rhetoric.

The conventional wisdom still claims that without money, a candidate can't win.
Well, Mike Huckabee proved in Iowa that it's not true in all cases.

I implore you, do not fall for the lie that voting for Mike Huckabee hands the
nomination to John McCain. Voting for Mike Huckabee improves the chances that
Mike Huckabee will be the Republican nominee. Don't listen to Mitt Romney and
the Conservative media echo chamber when they lie to you and say this is a
two-man race between Romney and McCain. They think if they say it enough, you
might believe it. And if you believe it, it will make it come true.

Post Florida Report

Tonight Florida awarded 57 delegates to John McCain. Up next are the 22 states on super Tuesday.

This is what i said on the 20^th after SC. It's still true. Note that Missouri has MORE delegates than did Florida.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates.

Updated Predictions

The smart money tonight is on the end of the Giuliani campaign, and that he'll throw his support to McCain. Certainly, Giuliani's exit would give big winner-take-all states such as NY and NJ to McCain. So here's my latest update, reflecting my assumption of the end of Giuliani, and also taking out any future Thompson delegates (with the inconsequential exception of a few in TN). Still not enough for a majority, but enough to give McCain a clear command of the race, and perhaps enough to get deals worked out by Easter.

Again, this table shows my delegate estimates through 2/5.

Candidate	Original	1/20 est.	1/29 est.
Mike Huckabee	423	338	345
Mitt Romney	194	221	247
John McCain	205	331	636
Rudy Giuliani	359	300	11
Fred Thompson	59	54	8
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68	65

I'm probably still wearing my Huck-colored glasses, but i'll fight to the end.

Next Tuesday, all you have to watch is Missouri. If there's a miracle to be had, it will have to start there.

The Reports of Huckabee's (Political) Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.

Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.

For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).

Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.

Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.

I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.

The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).

Update on FL

I just confirmed that Florida will be a statewide winner-take-all primary. I had seen sites suggesting that, but none of them provided an original source to back up what just appeared to be speculation. But it's true. Back in August, after the national GOP stripped a few states of half their delegates for attempting to jump-the-2/5-gun, the Florida GOP decided to change their delegate process to award all of the 57 delegates to whichever candidate got the most votes across the entire state.

My calculations below do not take that into account, but aside from any momentum effect (a missing animal this year), this change wouldn't have a major impact on the counts. It would mean that any of 3 candidates - Huckabee, Giuliani or McCain - could emerge from Super Tuesday with the most delegates (i suppose Romney could too, but i can't see it), but no one would still have a sizeable lead, and nowhere near on track for a majority.

I'm hopeful for Governor Huckabee, but Florida has never been a state i expected him to win outright. I was banking on securing the delegates from the northern and central parts of the state. There's a chance, of course, of a victory, but i'd peg it at less than 10%. We supporters must keep working.

Checking the Toteboard

It's tough to lose a state you expected to win, and i'll take a closer look at the ramifications of that later, but this is a good time to pause and recheck my delegate count predictions. In a normal primary season, momentum would be king, but this year is different. No candidate has been able to capitalize on a primary win, in terms of momentum for the next round. And since everyone (but the self-funded Romney and the quixotic Paul) is pretty much broke, there's really little reason to drop out before Super Tuesday on Feb 5^th. No, this year appears to be, as i've been saying for a while now, an old-fashioned delegate grab.

Results Through SC

In the first 6 primaries and/or caucuses, in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina, there have been 154 delegates available. That's only 6.6% of all available delegates. By the end of 2/5, there will be another 1158 delegates awarded. That's about 8 times more than have been already awarded. This is still an open race, and will depend on who can capture hearts in the next two weeks.

Back in December, i predicted delegate wins for each candidate in each state. Let's look at how that's gone so far. I had predicted two wins apiece for Huckabee (IA and SC), Romney (MI & NV), and McCain (WY & NH). Romney ended up winning 3, taking WY, too. McCain got his two, substituting a far more important SC for WY. Huckabee lags with only one win.

But what about delegates? Check out the table below which shows actual delegates with my predictions. One caveat first: different news outlets show different totals for Iowa. The AP gives 30 delegates to Huckabee and 7 to Romney, based on historical caucus-to-delegate outcomes in that state. Other outlets merely show a proportional awarding based on the statewide vote totals. I know the later method is incorrect, but for this table, i took an average of the two approaches.

Candidate	Predicted	Actual
Mike Huckabee	37	34
Mitt Romney	56	59
John McCain	32	38
Rudy Giuliani	11	1
Fred Thompson	3	7
Others (Paul, etc)	15	7

 

Pretty much right on track, with the notable exception of Giuliani. I'm stunned with his poor performance. I know he hasn't campaigned that much in these states, but his background and name recognition alone should have been worth more than this. I had Giuliani with the 2^nd most delegates by 2/5, with big wins in NY, NJ, and CA. All those, believe it or not, are now in jeopardy. We could probably safely swap Giuliani and McCain's delegate predictions, but the essential premise would remain: this is still too muddled, and no one will have a majority, or even a clear advantage, after Super Tuesday.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates. He needs to capture a few congressional districts in FL and CA and IL.

Updated Predictions

We could plausibly wake up on February 6^th and find almost a 4-way battle on delegate counts. It seems each of the major 4 candidates has a solid non-majority constituency and/or a region of strength. Let the deal-making begin. I'm sticking by my prediction of a Huckabee/McCain ticket, in either direction.

Candidate	Original	Updated
Mike Huckabee	423	338
Mitt Romney	194	221
John McCain	205	331
Rudy Giuliani	359	300
Fred Thompson	59	54
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68

Goal for NH

The New Hampshire primary offers a total of only 12 delegates, after the GOP punished the early states for going too early, and halving their delegate counts. Those dozen delegates are apportioned based on the direct vote totals in the primary, although there is a 10% threshold in place before you can get any delegates. If you fall below this 10%, even if you get 9.9% of the vote, you get nothing.

So if we go by the Real Clear Politics poll averages for NH, we find that only 3 candidates are polling in double-digits. John McCain leads the way with 32.7%, ahead of Mitt Romney at 28.1%, and Mike Huckabee at 11.4%. If the actual vote matches those averages, both McCain and Romney would get 5 delegates, and Huckabee would get 2.

For Huckabee to get 3 delegates, he would need about 16% of the vote. So let's make that our goal: 16% and 3 delegates. A solid 3rd place.

Alt scenarios... if bychance, Giuliani or Paul get up to 10% and steal a delegate, they would take it from Romney (again, presuming the vote matches the polls). If both get to 10%, that would take away a delegate both from Romney and Huckabee. To get that delegate back, Mike would need to jump only a smidge, from the 11.4% of the polls to 12%.

Do 1 or 2 delegates matter all that much? No, probably not. For my money, i would expend just enough effort in NH to get that 3rd place and at least 2 delegates, to keep the momentum alive, and focus more time on Michigan and Florida.

P.S. Did you realize that Romney picked up more delegates in Wyoming (8) than he did in Iowa (7)?

Counting the Delegates

I've been analyzing the caucus and primary schedule through February 5^th, the so-called Super Tuesday, attempting to apportion the GOP delegates. If my math and sources are correct, there are just over 1300 delegates available in the 29 states. Most pundits and prognosticators talk about who's going to "win" a given state, but what goes unsaid is that delegates in most states are assigned proportionally. Most states are not winner-take-all. I suspect most of the winning talk is geared around the notion of momentum. In a normal year, momentum is pretty important, and it won't be without merit this year, but do not expect a coalescing around a single candidate. This thing is going to remain fractured, with at least 2 viable candidates going into the convention. That hasn't happened in so long that most observers dismiss it out of hand, but when you count up the delegates, it's hard to see it any other way.

If a state is not winner-take-all, it will generally apportion its delegates by primary vote portions, statewide and/or by congressional district. A few have thresholds, where a candidate needs to break a certain barrier (say, 10% or 20%) to get any delegates. The WTA states are (with delegate counts): New York (101), Connecticut (30), Delaware (18), Arizona (53), Utah (36), and Missouri (58). Besides the home-state wins in NY/AZ/UT (I'm counting Utah as a home state for Romney), I predict that Rudy Giuliani will take CT (solid) and DE (iffy) and that Mike Huckabee will take Missouri. (On further research, it appears that some other states have changed their rules to be WTA. I updated the delegate table below, but not this paragraph.)

Another aspect to keep in mind is that the GOP has awarded bonus delegates to states with Republican governors, senators, and further representation. That gives a boost to the delegate counts in Southern states, a strength for Huckabee. And the GOP has penalized those states holding primaries before Feb 5^th, impacting Michigan, New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Carolina, and Florida. Those states will have their delegate counts cut IN HALF.

Here's how I see the rest of the first 29 states going. I have a detailed spreadsheet backing this up, but I'm not going to post it all. So I'll follow convention and list my predicted winners. And by winners, I mean the candidate that I expect to receive the most delegates from a given state.

Candidate		# States Won	List of States Won
Mike Huckabee		10	IA, SC, AL, AR, GA, MO, MT, ND, OK, WV
Rudy Giuliani		7	FL, CA, CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Mitt Romney		6	MI, NV, ME, CO, UT, MA
John McCain		4	NH, WY, AZ, MN
Fred Thompson		1	TN
Ron Paul		1 (throwing a bone)	AK

And here are my projected delegate counts through Feb 5^th, not including the national superdelegates.

Candidate	# Delegates
Mike Huckabee	423
Rudy Giuliani	359
Mitt Romney	194
John McCain	205
Ron Paul (and others)	73
Fred Thompson	59

I'll check back after Iowa & New Hampshire to take a look at the post-Feb 5^th primaries. Will we get more clarity by then? Well, if my prognostications are close to correct, Fred Thompson will not be in the race by mid-February, and I believe he'll endorse fellow Senator John McCain. Mitt Romney will have a difficult decision to make. Does he continue spending his fortune when he may be in 4^th place? If we are truly heading to a fractured convention, then he might be smart to stay in the race, and position himself as a compromise candidate (a tough sell given his incessant attacks on Huckabee and McCain, and the notion by then that McCain is the better compromise candidate).

In fact, I'll go on the record right now that the GOP candidate will be either Mike Huckabee (on the 2^nd ballot) or John McCain (on a later ballot after intense backroom wrangling, and with Huckabee as his VP). Wow.