The End

Should have posted this several months ago... I have no plans to continue this blog, unless Mike Huckabee runs for President again in the future. I want to thank everyone who has visited, read, and commented, even the cranks. I especially want to thank my brother - The Calvinator - for being a co-writer with me. We had a good run, better than almost everyone expected.

We encourage everyone to go vote on or before next Tuesday. I am personally recommending John McCain (i assume Calvinator is too, but i haven't asked him) for President.

But let us also remember that our salvation - neither the profound sort nor the earth-bound - does not come from our politics. Let us not afford too much credit or blame to our governments. While they are indeed important, and we should choose our leaders wisely, they cannot transform hearts. They cannot be a substitute for hard work, for helping your neighbor, or for making the world a better place. That is our job, each of us.

We do also have a continued political job. We cannot sit back and let the moneyed class run roughshod over our country. The influence of money is pernicious in Washington, on Capitol Hill, in the race for the White House, in this bailout ridiculousness. And it won't get any better if the people don't stand up and say ENOUGH! Enough of deficit spending! Enough of wasteful pork! Enough of lobbyist driven vote trading! Enough of secret government! Enough of increasingly complex laws designed to thwart citizen activism!

We tried here to Huck the System. Let us continue to Buck the System.

Farewell...

(Still) Voting for Mike

The North Carolina Primary finally arrived this week. All the press around here, of course, was about the Democratic race between Clinton and Obama (and a little about our governor race). That ongoing battle drove strong turnout. Where i live, however, i guess it's mostly GOP territory, because there was hardly anyone at the polls when i was there before work.

Mike Huckabee was still on the NC ballot, despite having conceded to McCain. And while i join Governor Huckabee in now supporting Senator McCain, i wasn't going to forego this opportunity to vote for Mike. I proudly, if vainly, pencil-filled the little scantron bubble for Mike Huckabee for President. One last act this season to offer my support for this fine candidate.

I was one of about 63,000 folks to do so. Mike pulled 12%, ahead of Ron Paul's 7%. He picked up 8 delegates. Speaking of delegates, i wonder how the pick them. I signed up several months ago at the MH site to be a delegate, but never heard anything back.

Now, it's all about John McCain and ensuring his election over the profoundly liberal Obama. I doubt i will be blogging much about it, though, unless Huckabee is on the ticket.

Looking Forward: Huckabee

We had a great run, but Governor Huckabee came up short this time around. Hearty congratulations to Senator McCain on his all-but-sealed nomination.

But what about our guy Huckabee? There's been plenty written about what he should or might do next, mostly from the same prognosticators who have been spectacularly wrong throughout this season. Maybe i'm in that same boat, the SS Clueless, but here are my thoughts. It depends on whether Governor Huckabee would like to be POTUS at some point in the future. As early as 2012 or beyond.

If he wants to be president, Governor Huckabee should continue burnishing his foreign policy credentials and his federal economic skills. Accepting the VP slot with McCain would be the ideal spot (i don't buy the argument from some ardent Huckabee supporters to stay away from the McCain ticket, on the presumption that he is a sure loser - he's not). Accepting a cabinet position, unless it's the obviously unlikely Secretary of State position, would not be a good move. Being the Secretary of Health & Human Services, for example, is not a stepping-stone to the Oval Office, and would only serve to keep the Governor pigeon-holed.

Here's an off-the-wall suggestion. Take a high-level, visible position at a conservative think-tank like the Heritage Foundation or the American Enterprise Institute. Perhaps Newt Gingrich's American Solutions outfit. And not to focus solely or even primarily on traditional religious-right causes and issues. But to apply the principles of conservative governing to all the issues dear to the Governor. Fair taxation, whole-brained education, health, valuing of life, stewardship of the earth, and so forth. This would solidify his conservative credentials, especially in the eyes of skeptics, and would also serve to allay the unfounded fears that Huckabee was nothing more than Pat Robertson redux.

If the presidential aspirations are over, there are many more options. Huckabee could have a stellar career as a talk-show host, either on radio or tv. It would be delicious irony if he could unseat some of the goobers that railed against him on a daily basis, with no basis.

Or, even better imo, Huckabee could start a think-tank (can you tell that i like think-tanks?) with a special focus on the broadening evangelical environment. It wouldn't have to be much different than my suggestion above, with a key difference that this enterprise could be overtly "religious" in orientation. Perhaps join forces with Chuck Colson's Wilberforce Forum.

Whatever he does, i will remain a supporter.

54-46

Sorry for the absence lately. I've been working intently the last two weeks on a family genealogy project. Quite fascinating stuff.

Just a quick note then. Most observers of the GOP race have noted that John McCain has done very well this primary season in the so-called Blue States, those states that tend to go Democratic in the general elections. So i took a deeper look at that.

First, i made a prediction for each state, as to whether it would be blue or red this year. I based that primarily on what that state has done in the past 5 presidential elections (limited to 5 because that information was readily available at Yahoo's election dashboard.

Then, i compared the vote totals in each primary state thus far, McCain vs. Huckabee. Granted, most of those contests were not essentially head-to-head, and so the votes are clouded by votes for Thompson, Romney, et al. I then extrapolated those vote percentages to a force-fit total of 100% for the two candidates. For example, if McCain got 30% in state X, while Huckabee got 20%, then i adjusted that to 60-40 in favor of McCain.

The final step was to weight those respective state voting %s by the electoral votes assigned to each state. We couldn't take the raw votes because some states had caucuses, which have a much lower # of votes compared to regular primaries.

Result? In blue-states, McCain has had a 3-1 advantage over Huckabee. Domination. But domination in states where it won't matter. Those states are going to ultimately vote for Obama or Clinton over McCain. In red-states, McCain's lead narrows dramatically to only 54-46. Compare that to the results of the last 8 Democratic contests, where Obama has crushed Clinton 65-35 on average.

So what does this mean? I suppose if one believed that John McCain could turn historically blue states red, then this analysis would be encouraging for the GOP. If we were on a history arc where the trend was towards the GOP, rather than away from it, nominating a moderate Republican who could transform states into new electoral votes might be a good strategy. But we're on the opposite arc right now. Can the GOP even hold its base states this year with John McCain? I would still bet yes, but i'd be nervous if i were Mike Duncan.

I do still firmly believe that Governor Huckabee would easily hold the base-states, and with a half-year in the public spotlight, with the opportunity to hold debates, with the extra time for Obamamania to lose its luster, he could also hold the line just enough for a GOP victory in November. It doesn't look like we'll ever get the chance to prove that yea or nay.

Cinderella Man 2.0

Here's a cool video compiling scenes from this wild ride so far. A good example of how the media is clueless when it comes to political predictions. And an inspiring look at Governor Huckabee's ups and downs and ups.

Of Miracles and Math

Governor Huckabee quipped on Meet the Press last Sunday that he didn't major in math, but in miracles. He was, of course, talking about his delegate prospects. I quipped, before last Saturday's wins in Kansas and Louisiana, that Mike had "about as much of a chance as David had against Goliath." I almost majored in math, but i believe in miracles, too. The boy-with-slingshot miracles, though, not the next-time-i-play-basketball-this-5foot-10inch-white-guy-will-be-able-to-dunk kind of miracles. So which type of miracle does Governor Huckabee need, now that he lost all 3 Potomac primaries this week?

As many have already pointed out, the media's proclamation that Huckabee has no mathematical chance is pure bunk. CNN, which has been quite a solid source this election season, even played around with their fancy computer screens, and said that even if Huckabee wins the remaining primaries, that John McCain will still get enough delegates to clinch. I could only surmise that they failed to actually read the rules about how delegates are awarded in the remaining states. I did (at green papers). Heck, they only had to look at a state like Georgia, where Governor Huckabee got only 34% of the primary vote, enough to lead the way but only a few points ahead of McCain's 32% and Romney's 30%. A squeaker win, but one that delivered 45 delegates to Huckabee to only 3 to McCain. So, a 2 point victory led to garnering over 90% of the delegates. Other states – not all, but some – work in a similar fashion. That's just sloppy journalism to not consider all this.

So this is an exercise worth looking into, particularly for the true believers. What do i find?

Likely Case

In this scenario, i went through each remaining state and allocated delegates based on each state's rule and my reasonable expectations for primary voting outcomes. This was mostly based on the type of results we've seen from Super Tuesday forward. McCain does well in so-called blue states, and Huckabee does well in so-called red states. The result is not miracle-friendly. McCain gets enough delegates for an outright majority, even before awarding any super-delegates or counting the delegates from US territories. McCain just basically needs to hold serve and cruise on to the nomination. This is, by far, the likely outcome. Neither i, nor the Huckabee campaign, have any delusions otherwise.

Best Case

In this scenario, we reallocated future delegates assuming that Governor Huckabee starts to dominate in most states. Two of the next primaries (WI and OH), for example, are winner-take-all by a combination of congressional district and statewide votes. If Huckabee can beat McCain in each district, even if by a fraction, then he could take all 128 delegates from these two states. Let's look at all the states…

• Wisconsin – WTA by congressional district (CD) and statewide – 40 delegates – all to Huckabee
  
• Ohio – WTA by CD and statewide – 88 delegates – all to Huckabee
  
• Rhode Island – proportional – 20 – McCain wins 45-40
  
• Texas – funky mix by CD and statewide – 140 – Huckabee needs to win 50%+ statewide and in most CDs, delivering 123 of the 140 delegates
  
• Vermont – WTA – 17 – all to McCain
  
• Mississippi – WTA by CD and statewide, if get at least 50% - 39 – another state where we need at least 50% of the vote
  
• Pennsylvania – very strange rules, essentially rendering delegates unpledged – 74 – if get these other groundswells, could take 2/3 here
  
• Indiana – another odd mix of CD and convention – 57 – win outright with 50%+ and get 50 of the delegates (just an estimate)
  
• North Carolina – proportion – 69 – presume MH gets 60% of the vote here and the rest of the proportional states
  
• Nebraska – primary vote is advisory only, delegates picked at convention – 33 – need 2/3 of these
  
• Hawaii – convention – 20 – only get 6 in this McCain state
  
• Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho, New Mexico, South Dakota – all proportional – total of 166 – as stated above, assume MH gets 60% of the vote
  

Best Case Outcome

This scenario leaves John McCain with just under 1000 delegates, and Mike Huckabee with just over 800 delegates, enough to broker the convention. But even at that point, we'd still need something close to a miracle. He'd need to secure the delegates from all the other candidates other than McCain. He'd need to ensure that the super delegates don't just groundswell over to McCain too early. It's hard for me to imagine what sort of deal that Huckabee could make with Romney to get his delegates once they are unbound. Paul's delegates are likely to be intransigent.

It's hard to see the light at the end of this tunnel, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying. I'll expound on that in a future post.

Mike at CPAC

Video clip of Governor Huckabee's great speech at CPAC this morning...



You can find the rest of it at youtube, if you just click again on the video. Heck, i'll add the links...

Part 2
Part 3
Part 4

Delegate Math

Does Governor Huckabee really have to get 82% of the remaining Delegates (as Karl Rove claimed on FoxNews' Hannity & Colmes) to stop Senator McCain from being the Republican Nominee?

The answer: No, he doesn't have to. He only has to get about 60%, and yes, that is very possible.

I see so many different delegate counts that I'm not sure who knows, but I'll use the Real Clear Politics numbers.

Right now:

McCain 724

Total Delegates awarded so far: 1247 (Actually, I know this number is wrong because RCP is showing delegates for states that had a caucus or primary but that award delegates at some later stage. I think all of them are in Romney's column, though)

Delegates remaining to be awarded: 1133

Delegates McCain needs to be the nominee: 467 (1191-724)

Percentage McCain must receive to be the nominee: 41.22%

Percentage Huckabee must receive to take this to the Convention: 58.78%

If Huckabee gets about 82% of remaining Delegates, he wins outright going into the Convention. I don't expect that to happen, but blocking McCain is in the realm of possibility.

Quick Postgame Report

Not much to post right now, due to jury duty (my first ever) today taking up my time and the Duke/Carolina game tonight taking up my thoughts, but wanted to get a quick note or two in...

As usual, it's hard to find a definite source for delegate counts. I wanted to compare the actual results to my predictions. I checked my spreadsheet of predictions, and found i had correctly predicted the winner of 16 of the 21 super tuesday contests for the GOP. My misses were (with predicted / actual):

• Missouri (Huckabee/McCain) - oh so close!
• Alaska (Paul/Romney) - threw a bone to Paul supporters, half in fun
• Minnesota (McCain/Romney) - Mitt's caucus organization prevails
• North Dakota (McCain/Romney)
• Oklahoma (Huckabee/McCain) - my birthplace lets me down

So delegate counts don't figure to be too far off. I was, as i suspected, too optimistic about Huckabee, even though he far exceeded media expectations.

P.S. Go Blue Devils!

Show Me

Missouri didn't go the way we wanted, but Governor Romney did even worse than expected. Governor Huckabee is still in this thing. I just saw on MSNBC that Romney has spent over $1,000,000 per Delegate won. That's One Million Dollars. At that rate, he would have to spend more than a BILLION dollars to get the necessary Delegates to get the nomination.

It is well past time for Romney to drop out and let Mike face off against Senator McCain one on one.

The Authenticity Gap

Governor Romney and the echo chamber of Conservative media have been calling for Governor Huckabee to drop out of the race to allow Conservatives to unite behind Romney.  There are a few problems with this appeal.

1) Mike Huckabee was leading or tied in all the southern states when this appeal was begun.  The result of the constant drumbeat of the lie that this is a "two-man race" has been an erosion of some of Governor Huckabee's support, but polls in the past couple of days have shown that support growing back.

2) Mike Huckabee was in SECOND place in the national polls when this appeal began, so if anyone should have considered dropping out, it should have been THIRD place Romney.

3) A large percentage of those of us who are supporting Governor Huckabee would never consider voting for Romney.  One of the draws of Mike Huckabee is his authenticity, that is, he is believable.   Mitt Romney has no credibility with those of us who value authenticity.  It's one thing to change one's positions.  It's quite another to change one's positions about ten minutes before one forms an exploratory committee to run for President.  The bottom line is that we just don't believe Mitt Romney.  To further cement this "authenticity gap," take another look at points 1 & 2.

For weeks, Mitt Romney and the Conservative media echo chamber have been calling Governor Huckabee a Liberal, but now they claim that he is siphoning off Conservative votes from Romney.  How is that possible?  It's not.  The two claims are mutually exclusive.

Governor Huckabee is by far the most socially Conservative candidate.  His Fair Tax plan is the most Conservative economic plan espoused by any of the candidates, and his record as Governor of Arkansas is more Conservative than Romney's record as Governor of Massachusetts.  On National Security issues, he is at least the equal of Governor Romney, and I believe that the authenticity gap causes Romney to lose this prong as well.

Mike Huckabee is the best candidate for the three-legged stool of Reagan Conservatism, but many are too blinded by their own hubris or greed to see it. 

Super Tuesday

If John McCain wins Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, or Tennessee on Tuesday, the fault will lie with Mitt Romney, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, and Fred Thompson (Thompson gets included because his strategy in South Carolina weakened Huckabee and bolstered McCain). Mitt Romney cannot stop McCain in the South. Governor Huckabee can.

Super Tuesday Pitch

This is an email i am sending today to friends and family in the super Tuesday states.

Dear Friends,

I hope this email finds you and your families well. I know that times are tough for some of us, and while we look first to our God for comfort and guidance, we also, as Americans, have the privilege (and duty, i would say) of selecting our governing leaders. You have such an opportunity this Tuesday when your state holds its presidential primary. If you'll indulge an old friend, i'd like to share with you my thoughts. I have no idea where most of you stand politically. I just humbly offer one man's thoughts.

Research / Learn

I've been intensely involved in this process this time around, more so than any previous campaign season. I'll tell you why in a bit, but one thing i've learned, to great dismay, is how the media distorts things. We've long perceived liberal bias in the large media, but what has greatly surprised me is how the conservative media (Rush, Hannity, etc) have made no effort to be "fair & balanced", to the point of proclaiming outright distortions of the records of anyone who is not their favorite. Call me naïve, but whatever happened to real journalism?

Thus, it is critical that we do our own research. Go directly to the sources, bypassing the media filters. Last Spring, i began my presidential search and began checking out the various candidates. I went to their websites and checked out some youtube videos. I wasn't expecting this at all, what with my Bush Fatigue and a growing disillusionment with politics in general, but i quickly became blown away by one candidate.

That candidate is Mike Huckabee. I'm not asking you to support him based merely on my (fwiw) endorsement. I am asking you to give him full consideration based on your own research. Go to mikehuckabee.com, and check out his Huckabee 101 page, or peruse the Issues section. Go to youtube, and watch the Decade of Duty series or the Mike Huckabee story, which cover Mike's 10 year record as Governor of Arkansas.

If you want more of my take, check out my blog – Huck The System (a play on bucking the system). Specifically, check out my view of the 3 pillars of picking a president – ideology, character, and competence. Or my analysis of why someone like Governor Huckabee is the MOST electable Republican in the field. Or where i turn the recent talk of a "two man race" on its ear, where you'll find surprising information about the tax record of Mitt Romney. You can read about my (with Julie) opportunity to meet the Governor last November.

A Vote for Huckabee is a Vote For…?

You should vote your passion in a primary, should you have such. If you lean Huckabee, then vote Huckabee. If you have a clear preference for someone else, go ahead and vote that way. It's what a primary is all about. Most states are not winner-take-all, so every vote is meaningful, and provides extra leverage for your preferred candidate and the issues that candidate holds dear.

But if you're undecided, or if you chief goal now is to thwart McCain, then you could consider pragmatic things. For example, if you live in a Southern state, most polls have shown that Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain are pretty close to each other, with McCain surging in the past couple of weeks. Now i personally don't have a big problem with John McCain, but i know many people find him too moderate for their tastes, and want someone more conservative. Mitt Romney would have us believe that he should be that guy, but it's pretty clear that he has no chance in the south. So, if stopping McCain is a goal, i submit that you should be strategic and vote Huckabee.

Why I Like Governor Huckabee

I am strongly supporting Governor Huckabee for President for many reasons. If you've seen any of the GOP debates, then you know how articulate and engaging his speaking style is. Governor Huckabee comes across – even more so in person – as wholly authentic, not a powerpoint crafted, poll-driven politician. He has this way of connecting with everyday Americans. And he's funny, too. In the tedium of incessant campaigns, and with the prospect of listening to a president for 4 or more years, that's quite an overlooked trait. This is a man of character, a man of humble beginnings, but aspirational achievements.

Having first been drawn in by his style, i then turned to his ideology, and found a candidate who is much like me. Not 100% – no one is – but a nice blend of social conservatism (without the self-righteous anger) and Reagan-style patriotism and core fiscal principles such as trusting people over big-powers like governments, of budgetary restraint so that we aren't just moving our burdens to our offspring. In short, government should be our first answer for very few things, but for those very few things, government should perform in an efficient and effective way. Get the job done while spending as little as possible. His campaign has been like that, living on smarts and frugality, while the self-funded Romney has flooded your TV and radio with misleading ads.

Character – check. Issues – check. So what about competence? As governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee transformed the state government into the modern era, making it one of the most internet-friendly of all states (imagine that – Arkansas leading the way in technology). He transformed a budget deficit left by his indicted predecessor into a huge budget surplus which is returning to the people with lower taxes. He led a popular initiative to improve Arkansas roads from one of the worst in the nation to now the most improved. He tried innovative educational programs which led to a recent 8^th place ranking by Education Week.

Here are some of his accomplishments in bullet form…

• Improved roads from the worst in the nation to most improved.
• Left office with a record budget surplus, after inheriting a deficit
• Grew the Arkansas economy at a rate higher than the national average
• Sponsored the largest broad-based tax cut in Arkansas history
• Cut the state welfare rolls in half
• Created the innovative health-care program for Arkansas children called ARKids, cutting the number of uninsured children in half.
• Created the innovative Smart Start and Smart Step education programs, which led to markedly improved student test scores
• Created the innovative Smart Core curriculum standards, which led to a massive increase in the number of AP tests taken by high-schoolers.
• Chaired the National Governors' Association
• Named one of America's Top 5 Governors by TIME
• Named a "Distinguished Public Health Legislator of the Year" in 2005
• Awarded the AARP's Impact Award in 2006
• Named a top "Doer, Dreamer & Driver" by Government Technology magazine, after leading AR to a top 10 finish in the 2004 Digital States Survey.
• Effectively handled the influx of 75,000 Katrina evacuees

What's Next?

• If you are on the Huckabee train, great! Spread the word to your family, friends and neighbors, especially if you've learned some things that the media doesn't mention. This has been a frugal, grassroots campaign, and so every foot soldier is important.
  
• If you have further questions, or specific concerns about a particular issue, i'd be glad to dialogue with you about it.
  
• If you prefer to do something else, not a problem. Thanks for reading this far.
  
• Don't forget to vote on Tuesday!

Huckabee is a BUY - OUTPERFORM

Governor Huckabee continued his (and our) theme yesterday, attacking this anti-democratic notion by Romney and his media mouthpieces that other candidates should get out of his way. This from a short blurb in the New York Sun, where Huckabee parries the MBA sword and thrusts it back at Romney...

"Why doesn't he drop out? Look at how much money he spent to get the same market share that I've got," the former Arkansas governor told a public affairs forum in San Francisco, the Commonwealth Club. "My message is obviously selling a lot better than his because look at how much he's had to put behind it to market it, and it's barely sold. I have fewer resources, but I've sold as much of the product as he has."

Mr. Huckabee said Mr. Romney, who founded a business consulting firm, Bain Capital, should be able to recognize the trend lines. "He's an MBA and a smart business guy. If he were applying the same kind of business standard that he applied at Bain Capital, he'd be saying Huckabee's got a more efficient operation. They're getting a better market share than me for less money. Let's invest in him," the former Arkansas governor said.

Mitt Romney's Latest Lie

I believe that the word "lie" is thrown around way too often these days. We call
things lies that don't really fit the definition. However, the latest campaign
dirty trick from Mitt Romney is a classic lie.

It appears that Romney is making calls to voters and telling them that the
Republican race is now a two-man contest. The text of the calls is this:

Hello, This is Governor Mitt Romney. The race for the Republican nomination for
president is now a two person race. Our party, I believe, is at a critical
crossroads, and the future of conservatism is very much at stake. I believe the
choice before us is quite clear: Do we support the liberal policies of the
Washington D.C. crowd, or do we want to fight for the conservative principles
that have defined our party for more than a century? I believe that our policies
have to remain rooted in conservative thought. Together, you and I can begin to
change Washington. That's why I need your vote on Tuesday

The fact is that Mike Huckabee is still very much in this race. As oso diablo
and I have both calculated, unless Romney's and the media's efforts to undermine
him work, Mike should be in second place in Delegates after Tuesday. If those
efforts do work, then the media will come out next week and say, "See, we told
you Huckabee wasn't a viable candidate," but the truth will be that they
torpedoed his campaign with this false rhetoric.

The conventional wisdom still claims that without money, a candidate can't win.
Well, Mike Huckabee proved in Iowa that it's not true in all cases.

I implore you, do not fall for the lie that voting for Mike Huckabee hands the
nomination to John McCain. Voting for Mike Huckabee improves the chances that
Mike Huckabee will be the Republican nominee. Don't listen to Mitt Romney and
the Conservative media echo chamber when they lie to you and say this is a
two-man race between Romney and McCain. They think if they say it enough, you
might believe it. And if you believe it, it will make it come true.

RSDO Part II

I was going to post some more good reasons why Romney should drop out, if anyone should. But The Thomas Report covered them all already. Huckabee...

• Better debater & communicator
• Able to pull in non-typical constituencies, such as the African-American vote
• Greater history of winning tough elections
• Has defeated the Clinton political machine

If you're a first-time visitor here, i know i'm blowing your mind. But spend 5 minutes really thinking about this. The conventional wisdom has been wrong at every turn in this election (except for the prediction that Hillary & Bill would resort to their old tricks). Don't get sucked in to the same old inanities.

Romney Should Drop Out

The conventional wisdom from the meanstream media (stole that from another poster at Huck's Army) is that the GOP race is down to two people – McCain vs. Romney. Mitt, of course, has seized on this theme and has asserted that a vote for Governor Huckabee is a vote for John McCain. If this is truly to become a two-man race, and the goal is to defeat the momentum-laden McCain (assuming last night's woeful performance in the debate didn't stop his momentum in its tracks), then the best thing to do is coalesce around the most conservative candidate, the most electable candidate, the candidate with the most upside. That candidate is not Mitt Romney; it's Mike Huckabee.

Most Conservative

Mitt likes to proclaim himself the standard-bearer on the 3-legged stool of conservatism, with the 3 legs being social, fiscal, and national security issues. Like he triumphantly proclaimed last night that of course Ronald Reagan would endorse him. But just because i can slap on a glove and cleats doesn't mean you should put me in at shortstop. Is Mitt Romney the Sidd Finch of politics? Is there any there there?

Consider the 3 leg formulation.

• Social – even if we believe that Romney has finally hit his conservative political puberty and has truly converted to the prolife position (at most it's a position with him, not a cause) and other social conservative bona fides, he would still lag far behind Governor Huckabee's convictions, record, and prospects on this leg. A big win for Huckabee
  
• National Security – Like almost all governors, you'll find little directly relevant foreign policy experience for either candidate. This would turn on judgment, toughness, and leadership. I'm not impressed with Romney's CEO experience and so don't give the leadership advantage that he surely thinks he owns. I believe Huckabee has better judgment and would be tougher with aggressive regimes.
  
• Fiscal – Romney believes this is his trump card. But here's your trump card...
  

TAX FREEDOM DAY

A tax freedom day is the day in the calendar when you've worked long enough in the new year to afford to pay all your taxes. It's a sad commentary on our times, but this date is usually in April, and seems to fall later and later (see table 1 at the link) all the time. In 2007, it is estimated that the national tax freedom day was April 30th. So let's compare the records of Governors Huckabee and Romney in their respective states, looking at the Tax Freedom Day when they took office vs. when each left office.

Governor/State		TFD – Start		TFD - End	Net Effect
Huckabee / AR		April 22		April 22	Same
Romney / MA		April 21		May 6	15 days WORSE

If you don't mind working an extra two weeks for the government, then by all means believe the talking heads that Romney is the fiscal conservative.

Most Electable

I covered this in my Typologies post, showing the polling evidence that Governor Huckabee would be a better general election candidate than Romney. You can also look at the head to head polls compiled at RCP. Against Clinton, Huckabee fares 2-3 points better than Romney does. Against Obama, Huckabee also fares better than does Romney. Granted, neither candidate is polling well against those two right now, but this has been a consistent pattern – Huckabee trumps Romney. Governor Huckabee is more electable than Governor Romney, based on all the evidence we have to study.

Most Upside

Romney has had the powerful two-pronged advantage of both MONEY and MEDIA behind him, and still hasn't won a contested primary other than Michigan, which is practically home for him, given that his father was a popular governor there.

Think about it. Romney has outspent even his well-funded rivals by orders of magnitude that boggle the mind. Millions upon millions on negative ads, distortions of the records of the other candidates. He has all the power of talk radio behind him, all the conservative establishment media serving as surrogate mouthpieces for his campaign.

And what does he have to show for it? If he hasn't been able to beat McCain up until now, why would he all of sudden start doing it next Tuesday or beyond? If anyone should drop out, it should be Romney. The conservative establishment should try something else. That something else is, of course, Governor Huckabee.

Huckabee Endorses Reagan

The Calvinator mentions the great answer by Governor Huckabee in the debate last night. Here's the clip...

California Debate

The debate was structured to buy into the fiction that this is only a two-man race between Governor Romney and Senator McCain, but if I have one hope coming form it, it would be that everyone could hear Governor Huckabee's response to the final question of the night. When each candidate was asked if Ronald Reagan would have endorsed them for President, Mike said:

I think it would be incredibly presumptuous and even arrogant for me to try to suggest what Ronald Reagan would do, that he would endorse any of us against the others.

Let me just say this, I'm not going to pretend he would endorse me. I wish he would. I would love that, but I endorse him, and I'm going to tell you why.

It wasn't just his specific policies, but Ronald Reagan was something more than just a policy wonk. He was a man who loved this country, and he inspired this country to believe in itself again.

What made Ronald Reagan a great president was not just the intricacies of his policies, though they were good policies. It was that he loved America and saw it as a good nation and a great nation because of the greatness of its people.

And if we can recapture that, that's when we recapture the Reagan spirit. It's that spirit that has a can-do attitude about America's futures and that makes us love our country whether we're Democrats or Republicans. And that's what I believe Ronald Reagan did -- he brought this country back together and made us believe in ourselves.

And whether he believes in us, I hope we still believe in those things which made him a great leader and a great American.

When I can find some video of it, I'll add it. The best part was that this was the very last statement made by any of the candidates in the debate.

Max Out for Mike

Friday February 1st has been designated as Max Out for Mike day.  If you can give the maximum allowed contribution of $2300 ($4600 per couple), please do so. If you can't give that much, please give the maximum that you can, whether that's $1 or $2299.

You can register your intent at MaxOutForMike.com

I will be Maxing Out for Mike! Will you join me?

Post Florida Report

Tonight Florida awarded 57 delegates to John McCain. Up next are the 22 states on super Tuesday.

This is what i said on the 20^th after SC. It's still true. Note that Missouri has MORE delegates than did Florida.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates.

Updated Predictions

The smart money tonight is on the end of the Giuliani campaign, and that he'll throw his support to McCain. Certainly, Giuliani's exit would give big winner-take-all states such as NY and NJ to McCain. So here's my latest update, reflecting my assumption of the end of Giuliani, and also taking out any future Thompson delegates (with the inconsequential exception of a few in TN). Still not enough for a majority, but enough to give McCain a clear command of the race, and perhaps enough to get deals worked out by Easter.

Again, this table shows my delegate estimates through 2/5.

Candidate	Original	1/20 est.	1/29 est.
Mike Huckabee	423	338	345
Mitt Romney	194	221	247
John McCain	205	331	636
Rudy Giuliani	359	300	11
Fred Thompson	59	54	8
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68	65

I'm probably still wearing my Huck-colored glasses, but i'll fight to the end.

Next Tuesday, all you have to watch is Missouri. If there's a miracle to be had, it will have to start there.

Ahead of the Curve

Don't you want your president to be forward-thinking? To drive change, not merely tag along. To put forth innovative ideas, not rehash the same old platitudes. In short, to be a leader and not a follower. Of course you do.

Governor Mike Huckabee is just that. Consider what we've seen on the campaign trail, as Governor Huckabee has led the conversation on many issues, and other candidates have trailed or parroted his ideas. Or will soon.

• The most innovative and bold idea on any candidate's platform – Republican or Democrat – in the FairTax.
  
• Energy independence within 8 years & an understanding that it is a national security issue
  
• Exploration of switchgrass as an alternate biofuel
  
• Stimulating OUR economy – not China's – by investing in our infrastructure. Namely, to start with, widening I-95.
  
• Recognizing, several months ahead of the other GOP candidates and the pundits, that the economy was weakening (about a minute into the video)
  
• A focus on actual health, not just health insurance or the medical system
  
• A call for total government transparency
  
• A bill of rights for our military veterans
  
• A detailed plan to address illegal immigration
  
• A focus on whole-brain education
  
• Closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay, a position for which he was criticized by Fred Thompson, only to have the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs come out just a few days later saying the exact same thing, agreeing with Governor Huckabee
  

The Governor is stereotyped as a bumpkin', a view that i count as bigotry. Prejudice against southerners, against evangelicals. But he is leading the intellectual charge.

What to Expect on Tuesday

Tuesday is the Florida Primary. Here's a list of what I think you can expect:

Mike Huckabee will come in either 4th or 3rd.

The media will declare that this means his candidacy is doomed.

Conservative media will openly speculate that Mike will drop out before Super Tuesday

Mike Huckabee will not drop out.

You need to Watch This

And send the link you all you friends.

Great Article

This article does an excellent job explaining the appeal of Governor Huckabee and the frustration one feels as one of his supporters at the attacks from "friendly fire" he has received pretty much non-stop for the past month plus.

WallBuilders

I know that Huckabee's weaknesses aren't in the Social Conservative area, but I felt it would be good to point folks to the WallBuilders Voters Guide.

(Semi) Live Blogging the FL Debate

Bullets added as debate rolls on, with more recent comments at the top...

• Awesome segment there with the Governor talking over and standing up to Russert's pessimism. "That's the problem in America. Everyone talks about what we can't do; we need to talk about what we can do, whether it's overhauling the tax system or reaching energy independence." Not an exact quote. That's leadership. That's exactly right, Governor!
• There's a 10-12% inflation rate, Dr. Paul? I guess if all you spend money on is surgery, and don't spend anything on groceries or phone bills and such.
• There's the Bill Clinton mention. I win some points at Politico's Kingmaker.
• I agree with McCain about the gang of 14. And i agree with Medved in general that the same goofs who are lying about Huckabee's record are lying about McCain's record.
• Rudy is stealing Mike's lines about energy independence?
• Does Mitt fib again about the 2nd amendment?
• There's that Kemp/Gramm roll-call again! LOL.
• Ron Paul is an economy wonk at heart, and he can't get away from that.
• Pretty good defense of the FairTax, and he mentioned that current prices already reflect embedded taxes.
• Interesting that McCain is asking Governor Huckabee about the FairTax. This is not how i expected this segment to go. It almost sounds like a set-up, like perhaps these guys had a pre-arranged deal. We'll see when Huckabee asks his question.
• If Rudy is crafty, he would turn Mitt's (long-awaited) question around on him, and say that one thing we cannot do is have American companies, like Mitt's Bain Capital, partnering with China to undermine our military independence.
• Mitt is supposed to ask a question, but he's making a speech.
• Huckabee should have talked about radical Islamic fascists, not Easter Eggs.
• Good answer by Giuliani about the 60% poll (the hindsighters who say the Iraq war was not worth it).
• So Romney put together a National Guard version of a GI bill, but he's not a big-government conservative? Now, i don't think he is, but we should use the same standard for Governor Huckabee.
• Huckabee read my mind. It's not about the richie-riches.
• Who's doing their 2010 budget already?
• Russert references the "prosperity gap" for the GOP. This is the killer, mostly unspoken news for the GOP this year. It's not just Bush; it's this general belief among Americans that the Democrats are the better party for the economy. If the GOP is to have any hope at all, they HAVE to close this gap, and it won't happen with a business-as-usual Republican (ie, Romney). It will take someone who can connect with the middle class.
• A 9/11 reference for Giuliani, but it comes from Brian Williams, not Rudy. Oops, no, of course, Rudy goes in depth about a ground zero story.
• Two hits already on Sarbanes-Oxley. Good! Being in the corporate world, i see SOX as more government meddling and a bureaucratic boondoggle. Companies are spending enormous resources to stay in compliance. This, to me, is worse regulation, in terms of real impact, than the reviled McCain-Feingold.
• McCain has taken to this roll-call of fiscal conservatives who are supporting him. That's cool and all (i'm a big fan of Jack Kemp, to take one example), but i doubt it resonates with the average voter. I'm into this stuff and even i don't recognize all those names, but if i'm an average voter, i'm sure those are all rich old white guys.
• Romney asserts that he faced a $3 billion budget deficit. But this is misleading, as the Boston Globe has repeatedly pointed out. There's some truth to Romney's success story, but it is way overblown. You'd think a Harvard MBA wouldn't need to resume-pad.
• Interesting proposal from Governor Huckabee to widen I-95 by 2 lanes. Totally avoids the bait to attack Romney. And an intriguing point about whose economy - ours or China's? - will be most stimulated by these so-called stimulus packages.

ATTN: IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, MICHIGAN, NEVADA, & SOUTH CAROLINA HUCKABEE (and Hunter) VOTERS

Your job is not done.  If you voted for Governor Huckabee (or Duncan Hunter), and you don't want that vote to go to waste, you need to step up and contribute so that your candidate of choice will be able to see this race to the finish line.

If everyone who has already voted for Huckabee & Hunter would donate just $25, it would raise $8,660,450.  If each only gave $10, it would add up to $3,464,180.

Make sure your vote continues to matter.

Now, to people who haven't voted yet.

If you haven't given any money, what are you waiting for?  You can't give $25 to the most inspiring Presidential candidate in 24 years?  You can't give $10?

If you have already given, but aren't maxed out, You can't give another $25 to the most inspiring Presidential candidate in 24 years?  You can't give another $10?

The Reports of Huckabee's (Political) Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.

Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.

For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).

Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.

Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.

I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.

The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).

Update on FL

I just confirmed that Florida will be a statewide winner-take-all primary. I had seen sites suggesting that, but none of them provided an original source to back up what just appeared to be speculation. But it's true. Back in August, after the national GOP stripped a few states of half their delegates for attempting to jump-the-2/5-gun, the Florida GOP decided to change their delegate process to award all of the 57 delegates to whichever candidate got the most votes across the entire state.

My calculations below do not take that into account, but aside from any momentum effect (a missing animal this year), this change wouldn't have a major impact on the counts. It would mean that any of 3 candidates - Huckabee, Giuliani or McCain - could emerge from Super Tuesday with the most delegates (i suppose Romney could too, but i can't see it), but no one would still have a sizeable lead, and nowhere near on track for a majority.

I'm hopeful for Governor Huckabee, but Florida has never been a state i expected him to win outright. I was banking on securing the delegates from the northern and central parts of the state. There's a chance, of course, of a victory, but i'd peg it at less than 10%. We supporters must keep working.

Expanding the Base

Exit poll after exit poll has told the same story for Governor Huckabee. So far, he's been a one-trick pony, capturing primarily the born-again vote. Of course, that's his political brand, and it's a strong one. And, given that fully 45% of Americans adults call themselves evangelical and/or born-again, it's not a bad place to build a campaign, particularly in the GOP side. But it's a foundation only, not a livable house. To build an electoral house, the Governor must expand his base of support beyond born-agains. I say this as one of those 45%.

It would one thing if Huckabee could garner a near-unanimous tally among evangelicals, like Mitt Romney captured Mormons in Nevada yesterday. Romney got 94% of the Mormon vote yesterday! That's astounding. And if that had been evangelicals for Huckabee, you would have seen garment-rending among the media. Theocracy! Theocracy! Theocracy! But i digress.

Some suggestions…

• STOP the God & Constitution rhetoric. I suspect this one comment hurt Huckabee way more than has been measured, and way more than anything he has said before. It doesn't really matter what nuance he meant. Given voter suspicions already, this totally fed into those fears. I know, and most of my readers know, that he was merely talking about the two parts of his platform that call for Constitutional amendments – protecting unborn children and the sanctity of marriage – and why it's ok to pursue amendments. But he has to talk about those things in Constitutional terms, and saying it is what God wants doesn't cut it. There are plenty of reasons to stand up for innocent children in the womb that don't require Christian Identity language. A purely God-approach to public-square arguments is more likely to undermine the cause than to advance it. It pains me to say this, but i believe it's true.
  
• STOP preaching on Sunday mornings. I know some Huckabee supporters will blanch at this point. I personally think it's great that he goes into a church and preaches the gospel, as opposed to the typical politician who makes a barely-concealed stump speech. But the rules for Huckabee now are different, presuming he wants to become President. Alternatively, keep making the appearances, but adjust the message. You don't have to avoid God-talk here, but it would make more sense to deliver a strong message with broader appeal. Preach about ministering to the poor and needy. Preach about the fruit of the Spirit. But the current approach of talking about Christians winning in the end and what-not is counter-productive in the context of the election. It reminds me of Gene Simmons on Celebrity Apprentice, with the nose-thumbing of i'm going to do what i want, i don't care what the experts say, fire me if you wish. I guess that's great if you want to just be on TV, but not if you're actually interested in winning the race you're in.
  
• Reach out to a conservative group like Heritage Foundation or CATO. Make a speech; write an article like the one i posted on Friday. You have a lot of good things to talk about.
  
• Tighten up your message when you get free media. Enough of the aw-shucks quips about flak and hunter-targets and hit-dogs. If you're asked about taxes, say simply: In Arkansas, our economy grew faster than the national average, we moved from a large budget deficit to an even larger budget surplus, we made vast improvements in roads & education, we made government work again, and we did it all with a tax burden BELOW the national average. If you are asked a God question, say simply: i believe firmly in the founders' view of the separation of church & state, and of religious freedom as embedded in our Constitution. Our goal is to make American a better place, and all viewpoints, whether from the religious or non-religious, are welcome in the debate about what that means. If Fred Thompson tries to put you in the Blame America First crowd, explode back at him with a "How dare you question my patriotism, Senator!"
  
• Insist that the media refer to you as Governor Huckabee, which is the proper salutation and etiquette, and not merely as a Baptist preacher.
  

Why this is important

Governor Huckabee's message and platform should have broader appeal beyond born-agains. He should be a candidate who appeals to prolife Catholics, to conservatives & moderates concerned about our stewardship of the environment, to conservatives who question whether government is approaching the economy in the right way, to other non-traditional constituencies. But those inclined to consider him are turned off by the continued Christian Identity politics. They aren't going to understand little phrases that are innocuous to evangelicals, but troubling for those not in the club. It makes it easy for them to ignore him in the voting booth. I bet there are even legions of FairTax fans that are queasy. But it doesn't have to be that way. This is still a winnable election.

Checking the Toteboard

It's tough to lose a state you expected to win, and i'll take a closer look at the ramifications of that later, but this is a good time to pause and recheck my delegate count predictions. In a normal primary season, momentum would be king, but this year is different. No candidate has been able to capitalize on a primary win, in terms of momentum for the next round. And since everyone (but the self-funded Romney and the quixotic Paul) is pretty much broke, there's really little reason to drop out before Super Tuesday on Feb 5^th. No, this year appears to be, as i've been saying for a while now, an old-fashioned delegate grab.

Results Through SC

In the first 6 primaries and/or caucuses, in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina, there have been 154 delegates available. That's only 6.6% of all available delegates. By the end of 2/5, there will be another 1158 delegates awarded. That's about 8 times more than have been already awarded. This is still an open race, and will depend on who can capture hearts in the next two weeks.

Back in December, i predicted delegate wins for each candidate in each state. Let's look at how that's gone so far. I had predicted two wins apiece for Huckabee (IA and SC), Romney (MI & NV), and McCain (WY & NH). Romney ended up winning 3, taking WY, too. McCain got his two, substituting a far more important SC for WY. Huckabee lags with only one win.

But what about delegates? Check out the table below which shows actual delegates with my predictions. One caveat first: different news outlets show different totals for Iowa. The AP gives 30 delegates to Huckabee and 7 to Romney, based on historical caucus-to-delegate outcomes in that state. Other outlets merely show a proportional awarding based on the statewide vote totals. I know the later method is incorrect, but for this table, i took an average of the two approaches.

Candidate	Predicted	Actual
Mike Huckabee	37	34
Mitt Romney	56	59
John McCain	32	38
Rudy Giuliani	11	1
Fred Thompson	3	7
Others (Paul, etc)	15	7

 

Pretty much right on track, with the notable exception of Giuliani. I'm stunned with his poor performance. I know he hasn't campaigned that much in these states, but his background and name recognition alone should have been worth more than this. I had Giuliani with the 2^nd most delegates by 2/5, with big wins in NY, NJ, and CA. All those, believe it or not, are now in jeopardy. We could probably safely swap Giuliani and McCain's delegate predictions, but the essential premise would remain: this is still too muddled, and no one will have a majority, or even a clear advantage, after Super Tuesday.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates. He needs to capture a few congressional districts in FL and CA and IL.

Updated Predictions

We could plausibly wake up on February 6^th and find almost a 4-way battle on delegate counts. It seems each of the major 4 candidates has a solid non-majority constituency and/or a region of strength. Let the deal-making begin. I'm sticking by my prediction of a Huckabee/McCain ticket, in either direction.

Candidate	Original	Updated
Mike Huckabee	423	338
Mitt Romney	194	221
John McCain	205	331
Rudy Giuliani	359	300
Fred Thompson	59	54
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68

Governor Huckabee at Heritage

I am a long-time member of (more than that, i make an automatic monthly contribution to) the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank based in Washington DC. Their primary purpose is to assist political leaders, particularly Senators and House members, craft public policy that comports with conservative principles. Well, heck, here is their mission statement.

Founded in 1973, The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institute - a think tank - whose mission is to formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.

Early in his tenure as Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee presented a lecture at Heritage called "Cutting Taxes and Other Great Ideas for Congress". I have highlighted some good excerpts…

• In Arkansas…, there are conservatives who believe that government really does need to get smaller, not larger; who believe that the best government is the most local government; who believe that taxes should be smaller; and who try to bring more efficiencies into what we do in government. And the good news is that this message of smaller, more efficient and accountable government is selling in our state.
  
• The executive branch cannot accomplish anything without working with the legislative branch, sitting down with them, negotiating, and treating the members with respect because they were elected just like I was.
  
• One of the greatest challenges that I faced as governor of a state like Arkansas was that for 162 years the tax burden on Arkansans always went up. It never went down… But, for the first time in 1997 and again this session, the old paradigm was no longer valid. The big battle was no longer, "Which taxes will we raise and by how much?" but, "Which taxes will we cut and by how much?"
  
• We passed a comprehensive income tax relief package, marking the first time in Arkansas' history that the state had seen a major, broad-based income tax cut. This $90.6 million tax relief measure lessened the tax burden on Arkansans in many ways.
  
  • Ended the income tax marriage penalty
    
  • Below the poverty line? No income tax
    
  • Ended bracket creep by indexing to inflation
    
  • Doubled the allowable child care credit
    
  • Eliminated the capital gains tax on sale of primary home
    
• In both 1997 and 1999, we produced balanced budgets with tax relief in the budgets. In other words, we budgeted for tax relief. By finding savings to pay for new programs, we proved it was possible to propose new and needed programs by reallocating resources while still providing tax relief. This has never before been accomplished in Arkansas.
  
• Character-based education has become a very important component of our education structure in Arkansas, and school districts have options on how they implement it… Children need to understand there are consequences for living out virtues, and we've already seen some pretty convincing results: discipline problems are going down and the learning atmosphere has improved dramatically.
  
• In addition to making it possible, through the Fair Dismissal Act, to get rid of teachers who are not doing the job and who are violating their contract, we also passed a bill that will provide financial incentives up to $2,000 a year of additional money for teachers who show extraordinary excellence in teaching.
  
• 44 percent of the people on welfare a year and a half ago are now off the welfare rolls and are in jobs and working.
  
• These are some of the things we've done, and they are proof positive that cutting taxes, making government performance-driven and accountable to the people, and bringing some sense of real fairness to government's overall approach is making life better for all our citizens.
  

Now does that look anything like a liberal to you? Don't believe the nonsense you hear from cranky political opponents. And consider that, around the same time Governor Huckabee delivered this address and set his state on a new path of conservatism, John McCain and Fred Thompson were in the Senate cooking up some new bitter brew called campaign finance reform, and this same duo would soon be strategizing to make McCain the 2000 GOP nominee for president.

Comparison Chart

This isn't the same old boring candidate comparison chart. You can find those anywhere. No, this is a chart showing the similarities between Governor Huckabee and this site's two bloggers.

Note: those symbols were little check marks in Word/Excel, but in blogger it appears they have transformed into ballots. Omen?

Characteristic	Governor Huckabee	oso diablo	the calvinator
Conservative			
ProLife			
Born on Aug 24			
First Name is Michael		
Middle Name is Dale			
Raised Baptist			
Did Theater in high school			
Attended Baptist university			
Graduated with honors			
Raised in small town near Ark-La-Tex border			
Plays guitar	
Has run a marathon	
Holds/Had a FCC license for radio DJ		
Holds/Had a license to preach			
Wife's name starts with J			
Has a son named David		
Has a daughter named Sarah			
Has run for public office			
Named one of America's best governors	
Authored numerous books	
Endorsed by Chuck Norris	
Best hope for the 2008 election	