Cinderella Man 2.0

Here's a cool video compiling scenes from this wild ride so far. A good example of how the media is clueless when it comes to political predictions. And an inspiring look at Governor Huckabee's ups and downs and ups.

Of Miracles and Math

Governor Huckabee quipped on Meet the Press last Sunday that he didn't major in math, but in miracles. He was, of course, talking about his delegate prospects. I quipped, before last Saturday's wins in Kansas and Louisiana, that Mike had "about as much of a chance as David had against Goliath." I almost majored in math, but i believe in miracles, too. The boy-with-slingshot miracles, though, not the next-time-i-play-basketball-this-5foot-10inch-white-guy-will-be-able-to-dunk kind of miracles. So which type of miracle does Governor Huckabee need, now that he lost all 3 Potomac primaries this week?

As many have already pointed out, the media's proclamation that Huckabee has no mathematical chance is pure bunk. CNN, which has been quite a solid source this election season, even played around with their fancy computer screens, and said that even if Huckabee wins the remaining primaries, that John McCain will still get enough delegates to clinch. I could only surmise that they failed to actually read the rules about how delegates are awarded in the remaining states. I did (at green papers). Heck, they only had to look at a state like Georgia, where Governor Huckabee got only 34% of the primary vote, enough to lead the way but only a few points ahead of McCain's 32% and Romney's 30%. A squeaker win, but one that delivered 45 delegates to Huckabee to only 3 to McCain. So, a 2 point victory led to garnering over 90% of the delegates. Other states – not all, but some – work in a similar fashion. That's just sloppy journalism to not consider all this.

So this is an exercise worth looking into, particularly for the true believers. What do i find?

Likely Case

In this scenario, i went through each remaining state and allocated delegates based on each state's rule and my reasonable expectations for primary voting outcomes. This was mostly based on the type of results we've seen from Super Tuesday forward. McCain does well in so-called blue states, and Huckabee does well in so-called red states. The result is not miracle-friendly. McCain gets enough delegates for an outright majority, even before awarding any super-delegates or counting the delegates from US territories. McCain just basically needs to hold serve and cruise on to the nomination. This is, by far, the likely outcome. Neither i, nor the Huckabee campaign, have any delusions otherwise.

Best Case

In this scenario, we reallocated future delegates assuming that Governor Huckabee starts to dominate in most states. Two of the next primaries (WI and OH), for example, are winner-take-all by a combination of congressional district and statewide votes. If Huckabee can beat McCain in each district, even if by a fraction, then he could take all 128 delegates from these two states. Let's look at all the states…

• Wisconsin – WTA by congressional district (CD) and statewide – 40 delegates – all to Huckabee
  
• Ohio – WTA by CD and statewide – 88 delegates – all to Huckabee
  
• Rhode Island – proportional – 20 – McCain wins 45-40
  
• Texas – funky mix by CD and statewide – 140 – Huckabee needs to win 50%+ statewide and in most CDs, delivering 123 of the 140 delegates
  
• Vermont – WTA – 17 – all to McCain
  
• Mississippi – WTA by CD and statewide, if get at least 50% - 39 – another state where we need at least 50% of the vote
  
• Pennsylvania – very strange rules, essentially rendering delegates unpledged – 74 – if get these other groundswells, could take 2/3 here
  
• Indiana – another odd mix of CD and convention – 57 – win outright with 50%+ and get 50 of the delegates (just an estimate)
  
• North Carolina – proportion – 69 – presume MH gets 60% of the vote here and the rest of the proportional states
  
• Nebraska – primary vote is advisory only, delegates picked at convention – 33 – need 2/3 of these
  
• Hawaii – convention – 20 – only get 6 in this McCain state
  
• Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho, New Mexico, South Dakota – all proportional – total of 166 – as stated above, assume MH gets 60% of the vote
  

Best Case Outcome

This scenario leaves John McCain with just under 1000 delegates, and Mike Huckabee with just over 800 delegates, enough to broker the convention. But even at that point, we'd still need something close to a miracle. He'd need to secure the delegates from all the other candidates other than McCain. He'd need to ensure that the super delegates don't just groundswell over to McCain too early. It's hard for me to imagine what sort of deal that Huckabee could make with Romney to get his delegates once they are unbound. Paul's delegates are likely to be intransigent.

It's hard to see the light at the end of this tunnel, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying. I'll expound on that in a future post.

Mike at CPAC

Video clip of Governor Huckabee's great speech at CPAC this morning...



You can find the rest of it at youtube, if you just click again on the video. Heck, i'll add the links...

Part 2
Part 3
Part 4

Delegate Math

Does Governor Huckabee really have to get 82% of the remaining Delegates (as Karl Rove claimed on FoxNews' Hannity & Colmes) to stop Senator McCain from being the Republican Nominee?

The answer: No, he doesn't have to. He only has to get about 60%, and yes, that is very possible.

I see so many different delegate counts that I'm not sure who knows, but I'll use the Real Clear Politics numbers.

Right now:

McCain 724

Total Delegates awarded so far: 1247 (Actually, I know this number is wrong because RCP is showing delegates for states that had a caucus or primary but that award delegates at some later stage. I think all of them are in Romney's column, though)

Delegates remaining to be awarded: 1133

Delegates McCain needs to be the nominee: 467 (1191-724)

Percentage McCain must receive to be the nominee: 41.22%

Percentage Huckabee must receive to take this to the Convention: 58.78%

If Huckabee gets about 82% of remaining Delegates, he wins outright going into the Convention. I don't expect that to happen, but blocking McCain is in the realm of possibility.

Quick Postgame Report

Not much to post right now, due to jury duty (my first ever) today taking up my time and the Duke/Carolina game tonight taking up my thoughts, but wanted to get a quick note or two in...

As usual, it's hard to find a definite source for delegate counts. I wanted to compare the actual results to my predictions. I checked my spreadsheet of predictions, and found i had correctly predicted the winner of 16 of the 21 super tuesday contests for the GOP. My misses were (with predicted / actual):

• Missouri (Huckabee/McCain) - oh so close!
• Alaska (Paul/Romney) - threw a bone to Paul supporters, half in fun
• Minnesota (McCain/Romney) - Mitt's caucus organization prevails
• North Dakota (McCain/Romney)
• Oklahoma (Huckabee/McCain) - my birthplace lets me down

So delegate counts don't figure to be too far off. I was, as i suspected, too optimistic about Huckabee, even though he far exceeded media expectations.

P.S. Go Blue Devils!

Show Me

Missouri didn't go the way we wanted, but Governor Romney did even worse than expected. Governor Huckabee is still in this thing. I just saw on MSNBC that Romney has spent over $1,000,000 per Delegate won. That's One Million Dollars. At that rate, he would have to spend more than a BILLION dollars to get the necessary Delegates to get the nomination.

It is well past time for Romney to drop out and let Mike face off against Senator McCain one on one.

The Authenticity Gap

Governor Romney and the echo chamber of Conservative media have been calling for Governor Huckabee to drop out of the race to allow Conservatives to unite behind Romney.  There are a few problems with this appeal.

1) Mike Huckabee was leading or tied in all the southern states when this appeal was begun.  The result of the constant drumbeat of the lie that this is a "two-man race" has been an erosion of some of Governor Huckabee's support, but polls in the past couple of days have shown that support growing back.

2) Mike Huckabee was in SECOND place in the national polls when this appeal began, so if anyone should have considered dropping out, it should have been THIRD place Romney.

3) A large percentage of those of us who are supporting Governor Huckabee would never consider voting for Romney.  One of the draws of Mike Huckabee is his authenticity, that is, he is believable.   Mitt Romney has no credibility with those of us who value authenticity.  It's one thing to change one's positions.  It's quite another to change one's positions about ten minutes before one forms an exploratory committee to run for President.  The bottom line is that we just don't believe Mitt Romney.  To further cement this "authenticity gap," take another look at points 1 & 2.

For weeks, Mitt Romney and the Conservative media echo chamber have been calling Governor Huckabee a Liberal, but now they claim that he is siphoning off Conservative votes from Romney.  How is that possible?  It's not.  The two claims are mutually exclusive.

Governor Huckabee is by far the most socially Conservative candidate.  His Fair Tax plan is the most Conservative economic plan espoused by any of the candidates, and his record as Governor of Arkansas is more Conservative than Romney's record as Governor of Massachusetts.  On National Security issues, he is at least the equal of Governor Romney, and I believe that the authenticity gap causes Romney to lose this prong as well.

Mike Huckabee is the best candidate for the three-legged stool of Reagan Conservatism, but many are too blinded by their own hubris or greed to see it. 

Super Tuesday

If John McCain wins Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, or Tennessee on Tuesday, the fault will lie with Mitt Romney, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, and Fred Thompson (Thompson gets included because his strategy in South Carolina weakened Huckabee and bolstered McCain). Mitt Romney cannot stop McCain in the South. Governor Huckabee can.

Super Tuesday Pitch

This is an email i am sending today to friends and family in the super Tuesday states.

Dear Friends,

I hope this email finds you and your families well. I know that times are tough for some of us, and while we look first to our God for comfort and guidance, we also, as Americans, have the privilege (and duty, i would say) of selecting our governing leaders. You have such an opportunity this Tuesday when your state holds its presidential primary. If you'll indulge an old friend, i'd like to share with you my thoughts. I have no idea where most of you stand politically. I just humbly offer one man's thoughts.

Research / Learn

I've been intensely involved in this process this time around, more so than any previous campaign season. I'll tell you why in a bit, but one thing i've learned, to great dismay, is how the media distorts things. We've long perceived liberal bias in the large media, but what has greatly surprised me is how the conservative media (Rush, Hannity, etc) have made no effort to be "fair & balanced", to the point of proclaiming outright distortions of the records of anyone who is not their favorite. Call me naïve, but whatever happened to real journalism?

Thus, it is critical that we do our own research. Go directly to the sources, bypassing the media filters. Last Spring, i began my presidential search and began checking out the various candidates. I went to their websites and checked out some youtube videos. I wasn't expecting this at all, what with my Bush Fatigue and a growing disillusionment with politics in general, but i quickly became blown away by one candidate.

That candidate is Mike Huckabee. I'm not asking you to support him based merely on my (fwiw) endorsement. I am asking you to give him full consideration based on your own research. Go to mikehuckabee.com, and check out his Huckabee 101 page, or peruse the Issues section. Go to youtube, and watch the Decade of Duty series or the Mike Huckabee story, which cover Mike's 10 year record as Governor of Arkansas.

If you want more of my take, check out my blog – Huck The System (a play on bucking the system). Specifically, check out my view of the 3 pillars of picking a president – ideology, character, and competence. Or my analysis of why someone like Governor Huckabee is the MOST electable Republican in the field. Or where i turn the recent talk of a "two man race" on its ear, where you'll find surprising information about the tax record of Mitt Romney. You can read about my (with Julie) opportunity to meet the Governor last November.

A Vote for Huckabee is a Vote For…?

You should vote your passion in a primary, should you have such. If you lean Huckabee, then vote Huckabee. If you have a clear preference for someone else, go ahead and vote that way. It's what a primary is all about. Most states are not winner-take-all, so every vote is meaningful, and provides extra leverage for your preferred candidate and the issues that candidate holds dear.

But if you're undecided, or if you chief goal now is to thwart McCain, then you could consider pragmatic things. For example, if you live in a Southern state, most polls have shown that Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain are pretty close to each other, with McCain surging in the past couple of weeks. Now i personally don't have a big problem with John McCain, but i know many people find him too moderate for their tastes, and want someone more conservative. Mitt Romney would have us believe that he should be that guy, but it's pretty clear that he has no chance in the south. So, if stopping McCain is a goal, i submit that you should be strategic and vote Huckabee.

Why I Like Governor Huckabee

I am strongly supporting Governor Huckabee for President for many reasons. If you've seen any of the GOP debates, then you know how articulate and engaging his speaking style is. Governor Huckabee comes across – even more so in person – as wholly authentic, not a powerpoint crafted, poll-driven politician. He has this way of connecting with everyday Americans. And he's funny, too. In the tedium of incessant campaigns, and with the prospect of listening to a president for 4 or more years, that's quite an overlooked trait. This is a man of character, a man of humble beginnings, but aspirational achievements.

Having first been drawn in by his style, i then turned to his ideology, and found a candidate who is much like me. Not 100% – no one is – but a nice blend of social conservatism (without the self-righteous anger) and Reagan-style patriotism and core fiscal principles such as trusting people over big-powers like governments, of budgetary restraint so that we aren't just moving our burdens to our offspring. In short, government should be our first answer for very few things, but for those very few things, government should perform in an efficient and effective way. Get the job done while spending as little as possible. His campaign has been like that, living on smarts and frugality, while the self-funded Romney has flooded your TV and radio with misleading ads.

Character – check. Issues – check. So what about competence? As governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee transformed the state government into the modern era, making it one of the most internet-friendly of all states (imagine that – Arkansas leading the way in technology). He transformed a budget deficit left by his indicted predecessor into a huge budget surplus which is returning to the people with lower taxes. He led a popular initiative to improve Arkansas roads from one of the worst in the nation to now the most improved. He tried innovative educational programs which led to a recent 8^th place ranking by Education Week.

Here are some of his accomplishments in bullet form…

• Improved roads from the worst in the nation to most improved.
• Left office with a record budget surplus, after inheriting a deficit
• Grew the Arkansas economy at a rate higher than the national average
• Sponsored the largest broad-based tax cut in Arkansas history
• Cut the state welfare rolls in half
• Created the innovative health-care program for Arkansas children called ARKids, cutting the number of uninsured children in half.
• Created the innovative Smart Start and Smart Step education programs, which led to markedly improved student test scores
• Created the innovative Smart Core curriculum standards, which led to a massive increase in the number of AP tests taken by high-schoolers.
• Chaired the National Governors' Association
• Named one of America's Top 5 Governors by TIME
• Named a "Distinguished Public Health Legislator of the Year" in 2005
• Awarded the AARP's Impact Award in 2006
• Named a top "Doer, Dreamer & Driver" by Government Technology magazine, after leading AR to a top 10 finish in the 2004 Digital States Survey.
• Effectively handled the influx of 75,000 Katrina evacuees

What's Next?

• If you are on the Huckabee train, great! Spread the word to your family, friends and neighbors, especially if you've learned some things that the media doesn't mention. This has been a frugal, grassroots campaign, and so every foot soldier is important.
  
• If you have further questions, or specific concerns about a particular issue, i'd be glad to dialogue with you about it.
  
• If you prefer to do something else, not a problem. Thanks for reading this far.
  
• Don't forget to vote on Tuesday!

Huckabee is a BUY - OUTPERFORM

Governor Huckabee continued his (and our) theme yesterday, attacking this anti-democratic notion by Romney and his media mouthpieces that other candidates should get out of his way. This from a short blurb in the New York Sun, where Huckabee parries the MBA sword and thrusts it back at Romney...

"Why doesn't he drop out? Look at how much money he spent to get the same market share that I've got," the former Arkansas governor told a public affairs forum in San Francisco, the Commonwealth Club. "My message is obviously selling a lot better than his because look at how much he's had to put behind it to market it, and it's barely sold. I have fewer resources, but I've sold as much of the product as he has."

Mr. Huckabee said Mr. Romney, who founded a business consulting firm, Bain Capital, should be able to recognize the trend lines. "He's an MBA and a smart business guy. If he were applying the same kind of business standard that he applied at Bain Capital, he'd be saying Huckabee's got a more efficient operation. They're getting a better market share than me for less money. Let's invest in him," the former Arkansas governor said.

Mitt Romney's Latest Lie

I believe that the word "lie" is thrown around way too often these days. We call
things lies that don't really fit the definition. However, the latest campaign
dirty trick from Mitt Romney is a classic lie.

It appears that Romney is making calls to voters and telling them that the
Republican race is now a two-man contest. The text of the calls is this:

Hello, This is Governor Mitt Romney. The race for the Republican nomination for
president is now a two person race. Our party, I believe, is at a critical
crossroads, and the future of conservatism is very much at stake. I believe the
choice before us is quite clear: Do we support the liberal policies of the
Washington D.C. crowd, or do we want to fight for the conservative principles
that have defined our party for more than a century? I believe that our policies
have to remain rooted in conservative thought. Together, you and I can begin to
change Washington. That's why I need your vote on Tuesday

The fact is that Mike Huckabee is still very much in this race. As oso diablo
and I have both calculated, unless Romney's and the media's efforts to undermine
him work, Mike should be in second place in Delegates after Tuesday. If those
efforts do work, then the media will come out next week and say, "See, we told
you Huckabee wasn't a viable candidate," but the truth will be that they
torpedoed his campaign with this false rhetoric.

The conventional wisdom still claims that without money, a candidate can't win.
Well, Mike Huckabee proved in Iowa that it's not true in all cases.

I implore you, do not fall for the lie that voting for Mike Huckabee hands the
nomination to John McCain. Voting for Mike Huckabee improves the chances that
Mike Huckabee will be the Republican nominee. Don't listen to Mitt Romney and
the Conservative media echo chamber when they lie to you and say this is a
two-man race between Romney and McCain. They think if they say it enough, you
might believe it. And if you believe it, it will make it come true.