Huckabee Does Not Exist

Mike Huckabee does not exist. It's just not possible. At least not the version presented to us by his detractors.

We are to believe that Mike is, at once, both Bill Clinton and Pat Robertson. He is a knuckle-dragging caveman and a hillbilly in one breath, and a Rovian genius, churning out brilliant ads choked with subliminal message for true believers only, in the next breath. He is Pat Buchanan and John Edwards. He's Jimmy Carter & Jerry Falwell. He is left of Dennis Kucinich and right of Jesse Helms.

It's dizzying.

There's an old adage in both politics and journalism that if you're being attacked from both sides, you must be doing something right. FDR also supposedly was quoted along those lines back in the mid-30s, right before he went out and won another term with over 60% of the popular vote, and a landslide % of the electoral college (97%), losing only 2 states (Maine & Vermont).

I'm also reminded of a 70s rock tune "Stuck in the Middle With You" by Stealers Wheel. (And not because someone's gonna get their ear cut off, a la Reservoir Dogs, a movie I haven't seen.) I amended the lyrics for Huck…

Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am
Huck in the middle with you

It's time for a re-read of The Party of Sam's Club. It's time for a Grand New Party. Or just understanding the party we already have. The coalitions that already exist. So even if a pundit-created Mike Huckabee does not exist, the real Mike Huckabee does, and he best fits with where America is today.

Counting the Delegates

I've been analyzing the caucus and primary schedule through February 5^th, the so-called Super Tuesday, attempting to apportion the GOP delegates. If my math and sources are correct, there are just over 1300 delegates available in the 29 states. Most pundits and prognosticators talk about who's going to "win" a given state, but what goes unsaid is that delegates in most states are assigned proportionally. Most states are not winner-take-all. I suspect most of the winning talk is geared around the notion of momentum. In a normal year, momentum is pretty important, and it won't be without merit this year, but do not expect a coalescing around a single candidate. This thing is going to remain fractured, with at least 2 viable candidates going into the convention. That hasn't happened in so long that most observers dismiss it out of hand, but when you count up the delegates, it's hard to see it any other way.

If a state is not winner-take-all, it will generally apportion its delegates by primary vote portions, statewide and/or by congressional district. A few have thresholds, where a candidate needs to break a certain barrier (say, 10% or 20%) to get any delegates. The WTA states are (with delegate counts): New York (101), Connecticut (30), Delaware (18), Arizona (53), Utah (36), and Missouri (58). Besides the home-state wins in NY/AZ/UT (I'm counting Utah as a home state for Romney), I predict that Rudy Giuliani will take CT (solid) and DE (iffy) and that Mike Huckabee will take Missouri. (On further research, it appears that some other states have changed their rules to be WTA. I updated the delegate table below, but not this paragraph.)

Another aspect to keep in mind is that the GOP has awarded bonus delegates to states with Republican governors, senators, and further representation. That gives a boost to the delegate counts in Southern states, a strength for Huckabee. And the GOP has penalized those states holding primaries before Feb 5^th, impacting Michigan, New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Carolina, and Florida. Those states will have their delegate counts cut IN HALF.

Here's how I see the rest of the first 29 states going. I have a detailed spreadsheet backing this up, but I'm not going to post it all. So I'll follow convention and list my predicted winners. And by winners, I mean the candidate that I expect to receive the most delegates from a given state.

Candidate		# States Won	List of States Won
Mike Huckabee		10	IA, SC, AL, AR, GA, MO, MT, ND, OK, WV
Rudy Giuliani		7	FL, CA, CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Mitt Romney		6	MI, NV, ME, CO, UT, MA
John McCain		4	NH, WY, AZ, MN
Fred Thompson		1	TN
Ron Paul		1 (throwing a bone)	AK

And here are my projected delegate counts through Feb 5^th, not including the national superdelegates.

Candidate	# Delegates
Mike Huckabee	423
Rudy Giuliani	359
Mitt Romney	194
John McCain	205
Ron Paul (and others)	73
Fred Thompson	59

I'll check back after Iowa & New Hampshire to take a look at the post-Feb 5^th primaries. Will we get more clarity by then? Well, if my prognostications are close to correct, Fred Thompson will not be in the race by mid-February, and I believe he'll endorse fellow Senator John McCain. Mitt Romney will have a difficult decision to make. Does he continue spending his fortune when he may be in 4^th place? If we are truly heading to a fractured convention, then he might be smart to stay in the race, and position himself as a compromise candidate (a tough sell given his incessant attacks on Huckabee and McCain, and the notion by then that McCain is the better compromise candidate).

In fact, I'll go on the record right now that the GOP candidate will be either Mike Huckabee (on the 2^nd ballot) or John McCain (on a later ballot after intense backroom wrangling, and with Huckabee as his VP). Wow.

The Real Reason BK Discontinued the Whopper

You may have the seen the humorous and clever marketing campaign from Burger King called the Whopper Freakout, using the prank that their signature entree, the Whopper burger, has been discontinued. Here at HTS, we have discovered the real reason why BK cannot make the Whopper anymore - Mitt Romney has cornered the market on whoppers, and there are no more to be had.

WaPo weighs in with Four Pinocchios
Battleground Iowa's take

The Dangers of the FairTax Platform

This is not about the merits of the FairTax itself, but about whether Mike Huckabee will be helped or not by his advocacy of the radical tax plan to replace most all current taxes with a national sales tax. I believe it is a dangerous, risky stance for Mike. Here's why…

• While not nearly as complicated as I expected it to be, the FairTax is such a radical change in our tax policy that the average voter will not immediately grasp what it's about. Even some should-know-better reporters are spouting falsehoods about it. To the extent that it is reducible to a soundbite, it is much more likely for that soundbite to be a negative one used by opponents of Huckabee and/or the FairTax.
  
• Continuing that point, detractors will make no effort to fairly portray the plan, even if they do understand that. We already see the merging of these 2 points with media assertions that the plan is overly regressive and, most damaging, that it will cause prices to rise by over 20%. Neither is actually true, and the latter charge is not even close to being true.
  
• The point about illegal immigrants and under-the-table earners now paying their fair share is a rhetorical winner, but it can be intellectually challenged by the expectation that a new underground economy would arise. The blackest of black markets.
  
• Given the criticism of Mike thus far about his record in Arkansas with taxes, and the skepticism by hardcore fiscal conservatives that he is bona fide, the FairTax is especially problematic for him. Given the first 2 points about confusion and obfuscation, voters, unable to sort it all out with facts, unsure whom to believe, might use the FairTax as a sign that Mike's opponents are correct. It does require a huge outlay of federal funds with its prebate (what makes it not regressive). Of course, the prebate is essentially a refund of taxes paid, so financially for the government it is not an outlay, but a wash. Will voters take the time and effort to figure that out, or will they be hoodwinked by devious ads and mailers saying "see, we told you this guy was a big-government conservative. See how much money he wants to spend."?
  
• Likewise, detractors will deviously assert that the FairTax is a big tax hike. "See, we told you this guy was Tax Hike Mike. He wants you to pay 23% more for your groceries. Will you even be able to afford that next new car?" In a soundbite world, can you make voters understand that CURRENT prices already reflect the cost of taxes, and that the FairTax wouldn't cause prices to rise materially, if at all?
  

Keywords: Take Control & Keep It Simple

The best pithy argument for the FairTax is not the abolishment of the IRS (even though that is a catchy line), but about Americans being more in control, and about making taxes simpler to understand. Fiscal conservatives talk about "starving the beast" of government, but how do you do that with an income tax (not to mention all those other federal taxes)? For most of us, we can't just stop making an income, so we have to keep feeding the beast. Sure, we can seek out tax shelters and such, but generally speaking those are marginal effects, and so the beast gets fed. With a sales tax, effectively kicking in above and beyond basic needs, taxpayers do have more control over how much food to put in the bowl, by way of discretionary spending. Of course, there are macro-economic impacts to those spending decisions which should not be ignored, but I would argue that for the most part, these would be purchases delayed, not purchases avoided altogether.

How would that work? Well, it might not work, given how hard it is for the federal government to pay attention to us. But you do what you can, and if you don't like the way the government is operating, or disagree profoundly with how it spends its money, you can "vote with your wallet". A drop in the ocean, it may feel like, but no less important than your single vote among millions. Even if there is no direct impact or benefit, there would still be a psychological or symbolic benefit for taxpayers. In short, a sales tax is more in line with the precepts of "of the people, by the people" than is the income tax.

Mike should also hammer away at the idea of making taxes simpler. You shouldn't need a CPA to understand how your government is funded. The current system is so complex that even the experts can't figure it out. Such a setup fosters discord and distrust that weasels will not pay their fair share. It breeds anxiety that the taxpayer is a sucker unless he ponies up for expert help.

Both of these rhetorical approaches connect at the point of governmental transparency, a big hot button for young voters. And so while the FairTax platform for Huckabee presents some difficult challenges, it also affords an opportunity to connect with voters if handled correctly. Governor Huckabee has demonstrated an ability to lead and persuade on issues important to him, and I have confidence in him on this subject, despite its risk.

Hometown Paper Comes Through

Growing up in Dallas, the premier (and only surviving) newspaper was the Dallas Morning News. Today, they endorsed Mike Huckabee for the GOP nomination for President. It's a nice write-up, with a great conclusion:

Plain-spoken and eloquent, Mr. Huckabee strikes us as decent, principled and empathetic to the views and concerns of others – an antidote to the power-mad partisanship that has led U.S. politics to a dispiriting standstill.

"I'm a conservative," he likes to say. "I'm just not mad about it." Along those lines, what sold us on Mr. Huckabee is a sense that of all the Republicans, he is the change agent the nation most needs...

America needs a clean break from the bitter politics of the recent past. From the right, Mike Huckabee, a progressive conservative with a pastor's heart, can deliver.

Audacious!

It was the most audacious event in world history. God, creator of the universe, comes to earth in the form of one of his loftiest creations. Entering the world in the shared and natural humility of childbirth. God as man, with a wrinkled crying face, a crown of mussed hair topping a misshapen head, robed in delivery goo. It was the coming of Christ.

We now celebrate this audacious event with our culture's most involved holiday which we call Christmas. The coming of Christ. The gathering of Christ. As Irenaeus put it almost 2000 years ago, "God became man so that we could become divine." (Irenaeus also said one of my all-time favorite quotes: "The glory of God is man fully alive.")

I like how this one blogger put it.

Christmas is a celebration of three comings of Christ. First, we celebrate the historical coming of Christ. The readings in the Church proclaim the story of Jesus' birth to a young virgin. We are reminded of his lineage, the conditions of his birth in the poverty of a manger, the angelic proclamation to the shepherds, his presentation at the temple, and the visit of the three wise men. The stories are told in the opening chapters of the gospels of Matthew and Luke for those who would like to read the narratives on their own.

Second, we celebrate the presence of Christ come among us today. Christians believe that the Spirit of God is always active in the world, gently guiding us and prodding us toward conversion. Nothing happens without a reason. There is not a stray molecule anywhere in the universe. Christmas is a celebration of God coming among us today! The Church often uses sacraments and symbols as signs of grace, and people are often aware of the power of the Spirit present in these activities. However, God's grace surrounds us all the time. Christmas celebrates God’s coming into our everyday lives - our work, our family, and our friendships.

Third, we celebrate the hope for the day when Christ will come in glory to gather the saints. One day, all who are being saved will be with the Lord in paradise. Whether we come to the Lord through natural death, or whether the Lord will come to us at the end of the world, Christians look forward to eternity with God. This will be our greatest happiness! As children anxiously await the arrival of Santa Claus, the Christian waits in joyful hope for eternity with our God!

Huckabee

So what does all this have to do with Mike Huckabee? Well, Mike had the human audacity to actually mention Christ when speaking of Christmas, as he attempted to set politics aside during the Christmas season, in a Christmas card ad that is all the buzz.

Now a Ranger

I finally got my activation code from the Huckabee campaign to become a "Huckabee Ranger". This means i am a dedicated and passionate supporter pledged to help raise funds.

Consider any contribution as an investment in a better future for America. Let's not let power entrench in only the self-appointed elites, the big media, mega-wealthy backroom dealers, cash-burning lobbyists. To steal an old slogan, Power to the People!

You can find my Ranger link on the top right. Or click here.

Let's do this thing. Mitt & Rudy have their wall street cronies. Fred & John have their Capitol Hill connections. Hillary & Barack & the other John all have their hollywood pals. Huckabee has and needs you, the everyday Americans. The folks who, in the words of George Bailey (from my favorite movie of all time), "do most of the working and paying and living and dying in this community."

Don't sit back and expect someone else to do it for you. It's time for you to get in the ring and fight. I close with the words of Edward Everett Hale, former chaplain of the US Senate:

I am only one, but I am one. I can't do everything, but I can do something. The something I ought to do, I can do. And by the grace of God, I will.

Right Smart - Excellent Blogger

I really like what J. Ritterbush is doing over at Right Smart. In fact, he's so good, and so prolific, that i despair of what else there is to say. Right Smart is especially good at looking into Mitt Romney's campaign tactics and past record.

He covers everything so well and so quickly. I link a lot of blogs over there on the right, but this may be the only one worth checking out on a daily basis.

Not (Merely) Republican or Democrat, But American

Underscoring my point from Friday, Rick Scarborough presents this anecdote about the support of Mike Huckabee.

This week an activist in Iowa made an interesting comment to me about the Mike Huckabee phenomena. While the Romney campaign has spent millions in Iowa to attract voters, the Huckabee campaign has aired few commercials because, until recently, they couldn’t afford a full campaign staff--let alone spend money on media buys. Yet Romney is falling like a rock in the polls and Huckabee’s numbers are soaring. This long time activist in Iowa politics said of Huckabee that rank and file people of both parties in her state are attracted to him because he is neither Republican nor Democrat, but American.

As I pondered her statement I thought, how refreshing, and perhaps how insightful. Huckabee has rankled the ire of many traditional conservatives with his unorthodox politics; while being unapologetic about his traditional social views, he challenges some of the conservative conclusions with many of his views regarding taxes, immigration and education. That mix usually spells disaster among Republicans yet he is leading the pack at present.

There are many speculative reasons offered for why he holds those views, but my friend’s comment that he is American resonates with me. Could it be that people are drawn to him because in him they see a genuine, authentic American, who embraces biblical truth and is attempting, in his humanity, to apply it to public policy? No one will ever get it completely right, and Huckabee won’t, but people like the fact that he is trying and not affected by the attacks from both the left and the right. And I believe that true Americans like the fact that in his campaign, “they,” not the handlers, nor the money people, nor the media, nor the political hacks, are driving his candidacy. His campaign has lacked money but it has generated what millions cannot buy--true believers.

Well said. That's how we Huck the system.

A Leader of All

Despite the punditocracy attempt to marginalize Mike Huckabee as a single constituency candidate, as merely a pastor catering to evangelicals, the governor takes a higher road and seeks to serve all Americans, as he has stated time and time again. He champions "vertical politics", as witnessed in an answer to one of the questions at the most recent Iowa debate.

It's a resonating message. To wit, in the latest Newsweek Iowa poll, Governor Huckabee draws as much support from non-evangelicals as does Mitt Romney, with the two governors tied for the lead among that group with 24% a piece. If you still think this is Pat Robertson redux, you will be surprised, as you have been until now.

Apologies: A Study in Contrast

This has been the week of apologies in the presidential races. In one example, Hillary Clinton apologized to Obama for the comments of one of her (since resigned) top staffers, who brought up Obama's drug usage.

But let's take a look at two apologies (and i use the term loosely, as you shall see) - one from Mike Huckabee, and then one from Fred Thompson.

First, Governor Huckabee personally apologized to Mitt Romney for the way his question about Mormon beliefs, as posed to a NYT reporter, had been misconstrued and blown up by the media into a big to-do. You can hear the governor discuss it in this interview on Morning Joe, about 4 minutes into the video.



That's how an honorable man does it, how a leader handles things. By all accounts, Romney was gracious and accepted the apology, as both governors hoped to move on.

Contrast that with this "apology" from Fred Thompson. An excerpt:

"We apologize for telling reporters that a BA in Biblical Studies from Ouachita Baptist University doesn’t, in fact, make Huckabee more qualified to fight the war on terror than say…Fred Thompson."

Besides being quite rude, this missive fails not only on the humor meter, but also on the truth meter. It is the typical sort of politics that turns off so many Americans. Throw out a bunch of half-truths and spin, and hope your voters aren't smart enough to see through it. It is not the best of America. We can do better.

At the youtube debate, when each candidate was permitted to air their own 30-second ads, only Fred Thompson went negative. I immediately thought, "this is the end of the Fred Thompson campaign." And repeated polls confirm that Fred is falling more out of favor every day.

• In Iowa, Fred polls in the single-digits, and i predict he'll curry fewer delegates there than does Ron Paul, of all people.
• In New Hampshire, Fred is polling at HALF the level of gadfly Paul.
• He's in single-digits in Michigan.
• He lost the lead in South Carolina, and is closer to 6th place than to first place.
• Huckabee outpolls Fred by 3-1 in Nevada.
• Fred is in single digits in Florida, where Huckabee just pulled into the lead over Giuliani.
• In fact, if you look at all the posted December polls at Real Clear Politics, you cannot find a single one, nationwide or for any single state, where Thompson is favored over Huckabee.

It seems clear to me that the people have weighed the two men, and have made their choice. One guy is positive; the other is nothing but snarky and negative. In my experience, in a contest like this, people turn negative about others when they can't think of anything positive to say about themselves.

Must-Read Blogger

Many of the Huckabee focused blogs, while well intentioned, are little more than echos of the main site, merely cut/pasting stories. Shadow sites, essentially. That's cool. And some are self-admitted cheerleader blogs. That's cool, too. I do that here from time to time.

But i do wish more Huckabee bloggers would craft original pieces. Do some analysis. Tie broad policy positions to their unique life situations. Tell us a story. Something new and different.

One blogger that is doing a great job with that is Joshua Trevino. I would direct everyone to his posts from today (12/12) and yesterday (12/11), defending Governor Huckabee on his 1992 AIDS isolation comments and on his foreign policy experience, respectively. He expertly takes mainstream conservative media (Wall St. Journal and National Review) to task over slipshod reporting on these two topics.

These are must-read entries. And Mr. Trevino goes on the blogroll.

New Huckabee Ad

I love this ad. It's my favorite one yet. I wish it had been ready for the Youtube debate, and we could have avoided all this distraction over the use of the label "Christian Leader".

What i like best about this one is that it highlights the "competency" leg of my 3-legged presidential stool.

Tribute to Henry Hyde

We take a break today from our regularly scheduled blogging to pay tribute to a great American, Henry Hyde. Mr. Hyde served in Congress, representing Illinois for over 30 years. He recently was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom, America's highest honor for civilians. The citation noted:

A veteran, a lawyer, and a public servant, Henry Hyde has served his country with honor and dedication. During his 32-year career in the House of Representatives, he was a powerful defender of life, a leading advocate for a strong national defense, and an unwavering voice for liberty, democracy, and free enterprise around the world. A true gentleman of the House, he advanced his principles without rancor and earned the respect of friends and adversaries alike. The United States honors Henry Hyde for his distinguished record of service to America.

He is best known to me as a champion of pro-life causes, most notably as the author of the Hyde Amendment, which halted federal funding of abortions and abortion advocacy groups, both in the US and around the world.

His approach and demeanor for congressional politics fits in well with our theme here at Huck The System. True political leadership is about making the country better, not consolidating your power and position. Consider this comment in Rich Lowry's column about Hyde:

He once told incoming congressmen, in the political axiom he lived by, that they "need to be at least as clear on the reasons why they would risk losing as they are on the reasons why they wanted to come here in the first place."

Here's a nice video of fellow congressmen & women paying tribute to Hyde. Note the bipartisanship.



Other good youtube links:
More tribute
Series of videos from fellow representatives

Video of the Day: Anderson Cooper

That guy driving the SUV is Drake, whom we met last night. He's a recent graduate of Wake Forest. He's also the guy that got shoved aside and to the floor by a reporter after a recent debate.

Quite the gig he's drawn.

Meet the Huckabees

Well, we're back from the Huckabee reception. It was a great night.

The Scene

The fundraiser reception was held in a private home (I don't know whose) in a very nice part of Greensboro. I had been hoping to get there early, but babysitter troubles (Caroline had swim practice) and heavy traffic (have you ever seen a clog because drivers are slowing down to read one of those big message signs over the roadway? That's what happened on the way through downtown Winston, as the sign flashed info about a "fugitive alert") conspired to slow us down, and so we arrived just at 6pm, the scheduled start time. So, I missed the media pow-wow.

We found a (illegal?) parking space a block behind the house, and walked past the media trucks and what we first thought were placard-waving protesters, but they turned out to be supporters of the FairTax. Around to the front lawn where we queue up in the frigid cold, inching forward toward the sign-in table in the home's foyer. A couple of college republican co-eds are welcoming at the front door, and I quip that I had expected to be the youngest folks there. Good to see that we weren't.

It seems we all had arrived around the same time, and so it took a while to get in the house. I wasn't sure how many to expect, but I didn't expect this many folks. We estimated about 250 people were crammed in the main floor area, like a packed-house college party, except with a bunch of old rich folks. After signing in, and paying our "entry fee", we could see Governor Huckabee and his wife Janet in the next room, having photos taken with supporters. That area was choked-full, so we snaked down the hall to enter that room by its other door. That's when we realized that we had unwittingly sidled into the photograph line.

Another long wait, and I wondered what it must be like for the Huckabees to stand there, photo after photo, with the same pose, the same nice true smiles, probably engaging in the exact same small talk. It's nice to meet you. So glad you're here. Keep up the good work. Hang in there. We're praying for you. As we get toward the front of the line, Julie overhears someone remark that you're supposed to have a star on your nametag to get a photo opportunity. We don't, but the photographer and the intern coordinating the line are both young, and so we stand out among our elders, and we are put through. I'm not sure if Julie heard correctly, but even if she did, Mike just won't say no, and they end up taking photos for a very long time.

The Moment

It's our turn! I think I was awake half of last-night thinking through what I'd say if we got to meet Mike. I wanted it to be memorable (avoid the above small talk banalities), but it had to be quick. This is what I said, after the introductions: Let me tell you the story of a young boy named Mike, who was born on August 24^th. Sound familiar? That's the start of it. There's more.

The Governor perked up and immediately said, "oh, but what year?" 1965. And then he said, "10 years different. But you know what, 1965, that's the date I was born-again." I was engaged, "really, you were born-again exactly on your 10^th birthday?" "Yep, at a vacation bible school." This exchange was face-to-face, eye-to-eye, but we soon drifted into photo poses, side-by-side.

I kept on. And I grew up in small town near the Ark-La-Tex border. Oh yeah, where was that? Terrell, Texas. Yes, I know where that is. Out on I-20. And I went to the largest Baptist college in my state. That's, what? Howard Payne, I forget. No, Baylor. Oh, yes, Baylor, sometimes I forget it's Baptist. Hey now! (yes, I did actually say that, like one frat brother to another).

That's really it, at least all I can recall with detail. We exchanged departing pleasantries, and they were on to the next group of supporters, probably with real stars on their nametags. For another small contribution, I'll be able to purchase that photo, and I will. I might even post it here. I wished later that I had mentioned that I was a Huckabee blogger, but there was no natural place to mention it in our unique exchange. Or it could be just that I froze after getting through my initial lines.

The Speech

After the photo, we finally made it to the food. Pretty much every nook was crowded with people, until we found some breathing room in the kitchen, next to the desserts (of course). Then, we wanted to get back into the open corner of the photo room, where everything was happening, and where I expected Mike to be when he started talking. But we couldn't get through the door without appearing forceful or rude, so we drifted into another open room. It was there that I ran into a guy I had targeted to meet, after researching the bios of the various hosts and sponsors. He had an interesting background, and so I engaged him in conversation about his work, about his writings, about energy independence & the FairTax. Then we heard the applause, so I darted into the hall to get a good spot to hear Mike. He was stationed at the front door in the foyer, and we couldn't get within 10 yards of him, and were stuck in that hall. Fortunately, though, the acoustics were perfectly suited in that hall, and so we could hear it all clearly.

Mike was introduced by an older man whom I couldn't see, but we believe it was Bill Cobey. He called Mike a man of courage, intellect, a true leader, a man of God. Mike opened by saying that it was Bill Cobey who kept encouraging him to run for President, way back before anyone else was thinking that, and thus how all this pretty much started with North Carolina. Most of his subsequent remarks were standard stump speech material that I've heard many times (since I pretty much devour all I can about Huckabee). The lava soap anecdote, etc. Which is not to suggest in any way that it was boring or mundane. The guy is a phenomenal speaker. There's not an ounce of slick in how he comes across. He just takes the floor and weaves through these long paragraphs of passion for America, and what we can do to make it a better country. I almost teared up when he spoke of the signers of the Declaration of Independence. We laughed, we cheered, there were lots of head-nods.

I couldn't do justice to his comments, based merely on my memory. I spent most of the time watching the crowd, looking for signs of resonance. The biggest applause lines were/for:

1. "I know how to and did defeat the Bill & Hillary Clinton political machine. 4 times!"
   
2. The FairTax (this one surprised me, especially among a crowd that is mostly in post-income years – this thing must really be catching on)
   
3. Energy independence (good, this is a big one for me too)
   

Anyone who thinks the Huckabee campaign is merely about Christian conservatives is really missing the boat, and will continue to underestimate Mike.

Meeting the Governor

My wife and i were grateful to receive an invitation to the Governor Huckabee reception and fundraiser tonight in Greensboro. Hopefully, we'll get to meet Mike. Will report back later, though it may be tomorrow.

Video of the Day: Nightline

don't miss my other posts below from earlier today, but here is a good clip on Huckabee from the Nightline news show...

First Place in North Carolina (and the nation)!

The Huckabee surge in the polls has been nothing short of amazing, even for this longtime supporter. The slow & steady climb hit a tipping point in the past few days, and the groundswell shows in recent polls.

In North Carolina, Huckabee garnered an incredible 33% in a poll released today. With this race still so fractured, i am stunned by this number. Mike hasn't set foot in our state in months, that i know of. This success is a result of grassroots support and the free national media exposure. As i've been saying, once people get to know Mike, they like Mike.

Contrast this poll with the same group's poll in October. Thompson led the way with 31% (he's down to 16% now). What did Huckabee get in October? Well, he wasn't even included in the poll question.

When you dive into the crosstabs, you find that Huckabee leads among voters who say that the Iraq War is one of their key issues. Also among those pegging Taxes, Economy & Jobs, Moral & Family Issues, and even Immigration. He leads with both men and women. He leads among age groups 30-45, 45-60, and 60+. He leads in every single area code.

Nationally, i find the numbers even more incredible. The daily tracking poll by Rasmussen shows Mike Huckabee in the LEAD nationally. Huck is at 20%, ahead of dropping-like-a-rock Giuliani at 17%. Two months ago today, he was at 4%.

Typologies & POTUS Vote Patterns

Continuing with our look at the Pew Political Typologies, and what they may tell us about Mike Huckabee's prospects in the 2008 general election. In the previous post, i outlined a few of the groups, the key ones from our perspective. Here, we'll look at how each group voted in presidential elections back to 1980 (though i don't have data for 1988, and for 2000, all i could find was data in the 1999 study on how folks intended to vote in 2000). Still, that leaves us with 6 elections.


Note on the data - when i express a % of votes, it represents the votes for the GOP candidate vs. the Dem candidate. Third-party votes were not taken into account, an important fact to keep in mind when you see the Dole comments. And it doesn't reflect that some portion will not vote at all (that is accounted for in the conclusions section, though).


Enterprisers - the least variance (only a 3% standard deviation) of any group, solidly Republican, always at least 90% for the GOP candidate, ranging from a low of 92% for Dole in 1996, to a high of 99% for Bush in 2004.
2008 Forecast: not tough to predict, really. For the average GOP candidate, i peg it at 97%, ranging from 92% for Huckabee to 99% for Romney. A third-party Paul or Bloomberg could dip into that, but i don't expect that to happen.


Social Conservatives - also solid GOP, ranging from a low of 72% for Dole, to a high of 97% for Reagan 1984. On average, this group is 89% GOP.
2008 Forecast: The red/blue divide has solidified in recent years for socons, and so i expect them to go GOP at a 95% clip, with Huckabee leading the way in the high 90s, and Giuliani trailing at 80%.


ProGovernment Conservatives - averages 78% for the GOP candidate, dipping down to 64% for Dole, and a high of 93% for Bush 2000. Bush 2004 got 84% of this group.
2008 Forecast: another Huckabee wheelhouse. I have him leading this group, too, at 88%. Romney trails the field at 80%.


Upbeats - now we start getting into the swing groups. Upbeats have averaged 67% for the GOP, but there has been a healthy variance. Bush in 1992 got only 36%, and Dole only 47%. Those guys, as you know, lost those races. Bush 2004 got 82%, however. This group, more than any other, tends to go with the most-sunny candidate.
2008 Forecast: Huckabee is the most sunny GOP candidate since Reagan. I can see him matching Bush's 2004 mark. Giuliani would lag here, with Thompson not much better.


Disaffecteds - the KEY swing group, imo. Like the Upbeats group, they have voted with the winner in each instance i have to study. The nadir for the GOP was, again, Dole with 23%. Reagan 1984 crushed it among this group, getting 81%. Over the 6 elections, this group has gone GOP 57%.
2008 Forecast: I think the historical trend will continue, and the GOP will need at least 50% of this group to win the 2008 election. Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson would poll the best with the Disaffecteds, among the GOP contenders. Giuliani and Romney would lag. Huckabee's unusual (for a Republican, sadly) populist messages resonate here.


Conservative Democrats - Peaked in 1984 at 25% for Reagan. Bush 2004 got 18%, about this group's GOP average.
2008 Forecast: I expect a GOP % in the 11-13% range, regardless of candidate.


Of the other voting groups, all strong Democratic groups, i don't see anything noteworthy, other than perhaps a chance for Giuliani to siphon off some of the Liberals, due to his pro-choice views and a perception that he would be stronger on foreign policy than the Democratic candidate. Not enough to make much difference, but i thought i should mention it, in fairness.


Conclusion
When you compare my forecasts with the historical voter turnout patterns by group, you can forecast a general election outcome (again, ignoring possible third-party spoilers). Here's what i get, in descending order of electability...

1. Huckabee - 50.4%
2. McCain - 50.1%
3. Thompson - 48.2%
4. Romney - 48.1%
5. Giuliani - 47.0%

Probably surprising for some readers who hearken to the prevailing "wisdom" that a social moderate is the best bet in the general election. And i know i'm open to charges of hagiographic bias for Huckabee. What hurts Giulini is the double-punch of losing enough social conservatives over the abortion issue, and enough Upbeats due to his tendency to turn dour. What helps Huckabee is that he will pull the best among the two key swing groups - Upbeats and Disaffecteds.