Deeper Dive into Iowa

Looking deeper into the numbers made available at the Des Moines Register for their presidential poll of likely Iowa caucus attendees, with particular attention to what they mean for Mike.

Ruled Out / Might Consider
One interesting question asked if voters had ruled out any candidates, or if they would consider others besides their top choice(s). Not a surprise that the #1 GOP candidate in the Ruled Out category is Ron Paul. Now, I admire Dr. Paul and wish we had a few score more of him in the Congress, but he is not made for POTUS. I don't reject him (my own version of ruled out) because of so-called "electability" (we Huckabee supporters chafe at that dismissal ourselves, for the time being), but because i don't see him as Presidential material, as a leader of all America. In this poll, fully 71% of GOP voters have ruled out Dr. Paul. Businessman (why?) John Cox and Alan Keys (double why?) aren't far behind, with scores in the 60s.

As i read these numbers, 3 candidates have the best chance to move up in the polls. Romney is one, a testament to his current strength in Iowa. Not only does he consistently lead the polls, but he could still increase that lead, as folks are open to him. Another is Fred Thompson, which i attribute to his recent entry into the race. Iowans are fair enough to give him a chance to define his candidacy (beyond golf carts). Whether Fred vaults up or declines is up to his skills as a campaigner. And finally, the 3rd candidate is our own Mike Huckabee. Only 36% have ruled him out, and 49% are open for further consideration as they learn more. That can only be good news for Mike, as he has demonstrated the ability to win over voters once they get to know him.

Truly the Best
Another poll question asks which candidate would make the best President, taking the electability question out of play. This is quite interesting to me, as Romney's support plunges from 29% who have him as their top choice, to only 20% who believe he's actually the best candidate. I surmise this is a picture of electability, a coalescence around a front-runner. Likewise, Big Fred's support is quite weak, as he drops from 18% to only 12%, only 4th place among GOP candidates. This is an expression of hope (sorry to use that word), but i believe it's false hope. Huckabee finishes 3rd on this question, behind Giuliani, with 13%, a shade higher than his 12% first-choice total.

This all bodes well for Mike. The opportunity is right there for the taking. If he can convince the voters that he can win the general election, he can siphon off 3 points from both Mitt and Fred. This is a classic case of a trend needing a tipping point.

Age & Gender
Among republican women, Romney has a commanding lead, at 33%. But Huckabee is 2nd at 14%. Unsure/Uncommitted is 3rd at 13%. Among republican men, Romney also leads with 27%, and Thompson is not far behind at 22%. Huckabee is 4th with 11%. This seems clear to me that Mike should target Romney weaknesses (flip-flopping) with women voters, and Thompson's weaknesses (where do i begin?) with men. If he can figure out how to target his messages accordingly, he could make some inroads. I'm not a campaign strategist by any means, but a good media consultant should be able to figure something out.

Age-wise, Mike is tied with Rudy for 2nd among age 18-44 (a curious bracketing, as there would seem to be little in common with a college voter and someone my age - early 40s). Giuliani gets a huge jump, at Huckabee's expense to a large extent, among ages 45-64. I have no idea what to make of that. But it's better, at this stage, to show well among the young, if you had to pick only one demographic, as the young are normally the early adopters.

Conclusion
That all may be too much info for you, but i see many things here which are good signs for the Huckabee campaign. There's still plenty of work ahead, and this is just one state, but i'm encouraged.