Many in the media (particularly Sean Hannity) have leapt on Governor Huckabee's probably ill-chosen words that hinted that he might decide not to wage a significant campaign in Florida because of its winner-take-all (WTA) nature and on the campaign's financial re-structuring (which all the campaigns except Romney & perhaps Paul) are also undertaking.
Governor Huckabee remains solidly in Second in National Polls as reported at Real Clear Politics. He's within striking distance in Florida, and I believe tomorrow night's debate might propel him over the top there. The Governor is polling even or ahead of Giuliani in California, which was once considered a guaranteed win for Rudy. In New York, Huckabee is basically even with Romney for third (I'm pretty much willing to write off NY because it is also WTA, and I don't see any way to overtake both Giuliani and McCain. Also, none of these polls takes into consideration the effects of Thompson's withdrawal and Duncan Hunter's Endorsement.
For some reason, RCP hasn't posted polls for the vast majority of the Super Tuesday states. Maybe there are no polls yet for Georgia (good shot at winning), Illinois (reasonable 3rd or even 2nd and pick up some delegates), Missouri (good chance to win in a WTA state), Tennessee (good shot at winning), Arizona (conceded to McCain and unfortunately WTA), New Jersey (probably not much chance of 1st and WTA), Alabama (good shot to win), Colorado (Could win or run 2nd to McCain or 3rd to McCain and Romney), Massachusetts (3rd or 4th probably), Minnesota (Could surprise), Oklahoma (should win), Utah (conceded to Romney and WTA), Arkansas (will win), Connecticut (probably won't win WTA), West Virginia (Decent shot to win), Alaska (Good shot to win), North Dakota (Could surprise), Montana (could surprise and "steal" this WTA state, Delaware (not impossible-WTA).
Maine comes February 1st. Huckabee could easily come in 2nd there except he's probably ignoring it. So, let's call it 3rd.
Louisiana, Washington, & Kansas are all on February 9th. This could be a good day for the Governor. He could win all three states. if he's on a roll he could take Virginia on the 12th, which notches a good WTA state. Maryland could come along that same day, but I wouldn't bet on it. After the 12th, there are no more WTA states.
I haven't done the spreadsheet analysis that oso diablo has done, but other than the hit taken in New York for its WTA status, Huckabee is still looking fine. Florida would be much more of a hit if it hadn't been stripped of half its delegates.
The Governor still needs more money because despite the amazing accomplishments to date, Super Tuesday will not go well if he doesn't have enough money to have a presence at least in the states that he should have a good shot of winning (essentially everything south of the Mason-Dixon). I finally signed up as a Huckabee Ranger, so you can use my brother's Ranger link to the right, or you can use mine here. (For mine, the code isn't completely activated yet, so if the URL strips the "r=7545" part, please add R7545 as a Donor Code at the bottom of the page).
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If FL still had all its original 114 delegates, they would not be a WTA state. 75 of those delegates would have gone to the winners in each of the 25 congressional districts (3 per). That would have made FL a state worth playing in. Huckabee could be playing possum in FL, but i think it's a longshot.
I know we're not supposed to play the what if? game, but what if the Governor had taken the time and resources spent in NH, and dedicated them to SC?
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