Video of the Day: Anderson Cooper

That guy driving the SUV is Drake, whom we met last night. He's a recent graduate of Wake Forest. He's also the guy that got shoved aside and to the floor by a reporter after a recent debate.

Quite the gig he's drawn.

Meet the Huckabees

Well, we're back from the Huckabee reception. It was a great night.

The Scene

The fundraiser reception was held in a private home (I don't know whose) in a very nice part of Greensboro. I had been hoping to get there early, but babysitter troubles (Caroline had swim practice) and heavy traffic (have you ever seen a clog because drivers are slowing down to read one of those big message signs over the roadway? That's what happened on the way through downtown Winston, as the sign flashed info about a "fugitive alert") conspired to slow us down, and so we arrived just at 6pm, the scheduled start time. So, I missed the media pow-wow.

We found a (illegal?) parking space a block behind the house, and walked past the media trucks and what we first thought were placard-waving protesters, but they turned out to be supporters of the FairTax. Around to the front lawn where we queue up in the frigid cold, inching forward toward the sign-in table in the home's foyer. A couple of college republican co-eds are welcoming at the front door, and I quip that I had expected to be the youngest folks there. Good to see that we weren't.

It seems we all had arrived around the same time, and so it took a while to get in the house. I wasn't sure how many to expect, but I didn't expect this many folks. We estimated about 250 people were crammed in the main floor area, like a packed-house college party, except with a bunch of old rich folks. After signing in, and paying our "entry fee", we could see Governor Huckabee and his wife Janet in the next room, having photos taken with supporters. That area was choked-full, so we snaked down the hall to enter that room by its other door. That's when we realized that we had unwittingly sidled into the photograph line.

Another long wait, and I wondered what it must be like for the Huckabees to stand there, photo after photo, with the same pose, the same nice true smiles, probably engaging in the exact same small talk. It's nice to meet you. So glad you're here. Keep up the good work. Hang in there. We're praying for you. As we get toward the front of the line, Julie overhears someone remark that you're supposed to have a star on your nametag to get a photo opportunity. We don't, but the photographer and the intern coordinating the line are both young, and so we stand out among our elders, and we are put through. I'm not sure if Julie heard correctly, but even if she did, Mike just won't say no, and they end up taking photos for a very long time.

The Moment

It's our turn! I think I was awake half of last-night thinking through what I'd say if we got to meet Mike. I wanted it to be memorable (avoid the above small talk banalities), but it had to be quick. This is what I said, after the introductions: Let me tell you the story of a young boy named Mike, who was born on August 24^th. Sound familiar? That's the start of it. There's more.

The Governor perked up and immediately said, "oh, but what year?" 1965. And then he said, "10 years different. But you know what, 1965, that's the date I was born-again." I was engaged, "really, you were born-again exactly on your 10^th birthday?" "Yep, at a vacation bible school." This exchange was face-to-face, eye-to-eye, but we soon drifted into photo poses, side-by-side.

I kept on. And I grew up in small town near the Ark-La-Tex border. Oh yeah, where was that? Terrell, Texas. Yes, I know where that is. Out on I-20. And I went to the largest Baptist college in my state. That's, what? Howard Payne, I forget. No, Baylor. Oh, yes, Baylor, sometimes I forget it's Baptist. Hey now! (yes, I did actually say that, like one frat brother to another).

That's really it, at least all I can recall with detail. We exchanged departing pleasantries, and they were on to the next group of supporters, probably with real stars on their nametags. For another small contribution, I'll be able to purchase that photo, and I will. I might even post it here. I wished later that I had mentioned that I was a Huckabee blogger, but there was no natural place to mention it in our unique exchange. Or it could be just that I froze after getting through my initial lines.

The Speech

After the photo, we finally made it to the food. Pretty much every nook was crowded with people, until we found some breathing room in the kitchen, next to the desserts (of course). Then, we wanted to get back into the open corner of the photo room, where everything was happening, and where I expected Mike to be when he started talking. But we couldn't get through the door without appearing forceful or rude, so we drifted into another open room. It was there that I ran into a guy I had targeted to meet, after researching the bios of the various hosts and sponsors. He had an interesting background, and so I engaged him in conversation about his work, about his writings, about energy independence & the FairTax. Then we heard the applause, so I darted into the hall to get a good spot to hear Mike. He was stationed at the front door in the foyer, and we couldn't get within 10 yards of him, and were stuck in that hall. Fortunately, though, the acoustics were perfectly suited in that hall, and so we could hear it all clearly.

Mike was introduced by an older man whom I couldn't see, but we believe it was Bill Cobey. He called Mike a man of courage, intellect, a true leader, a man of God. Mike opened by saying that it was Bill Cobey who kept encouraging him to run for President, way back before anyone else was thinking that, and thus how all this pretty much started with North Carolina. Most of his subsequent remarks were standard stump speech material that I've heard many times (since I pretty much devour all I can about Huckabee). The lava soap anecdote, etc. Which is not to suggest in any way that it was boring or mundane. The guy is a phenomenal speaker. There's not an ounce of slick in how he comes across. He just takes the floor and weaves through these long paragraphs of passion for America, and what we can do to make it a better country. I almost teared up when he spoke of the signers of the Declaration of Independence. We laughed, we cheered, there were lots of head-nods.

I couldn't do justice to his comments, based merely on my memory. I spent most of the time watching the crowd, looking for signs of resonance. The biggest applause lines were/for:

1. "I know how to and did defeat the Bill & Hillary Clinton political machine. 4 times!"
   
2. The FairTax (this one surprised me, especially among a crowd that is mostly in post-income years – this thing must really be catching on)
   
3. Energy independence (good, this is a big one for me too)
   

Anyone who thinks the Huckabee campaign is merely about Christian conservatives is really missing the boat, and will continue to underestimate Mike.

Meeting the Governor

My wife and i were grateful to receive an invitation to the Governor Huckabee reception and fundraiser tonight in Greensboro. Hopefully, we'll get to meet Mike. Will report back later, though it may be tomorrow.

Video of the Day: Nightline

don't miss my other posts below from earlier today, but here is a good clip on Huckabee from the Nightline news show...

First Place in North Carolina (and the nation)!

The Huckabee surge in the polls has been nothing short of amazing, even for this longtime supporter. The slow & steady climb hit a tipping point in the past few days, and the groundswell shows in recent polls.

In North Carolina, Huckabee garnered an incredible 33% in a poll released today. With this race still so fractured, i am stunned by this number. Mike hasn't set foot in our state in months, that i know of. This success is a result of grassroots support and the free national media exposure. As i've been saying, once people get to know Mike, they like Mike.

Contrast this poll with the same group's poll in October. Thompson led the way with 31% (he's down to 16% now). What did Huckabee get in October? Well, he wasn't even included in the poll question.

When you dive into the crosstabs, you find that Huckabee leads among voters who say that the Iraq War is one of their key issues. Also among those pegging Taxes, Economy & Jobs, Moral & Family Issues, and even Immigration. He leads with both men and women. He leads among age groups 30-45, 45-60, and 60+. He leads in every single area code.

Nationally, i find the numbers even more incredible. The daily tracking poll by Rasmussen shows Mike Huckabee in the LEAD nationally. Huck is at 20%, ahead of dropping-like-a-rock Giuliani at 17%. Two months ago today, he was at 4%.

Typologies & POTUS Vote Patterns

Continuing with our look at the Pew Political Typologies, and what they may tell us about Mike Huckabee's prospects in the 2008 general election. In the previous post, i outlined a few of the groups, the key ones from our perspective. Here, we'll look at how each group voted in presidential elections back to 1980 (though i don't have data for 1988, and for 2000, all i could find was data in the 1999 study on how folks intended to vote in 2000). Still, that leaves us with 6 elections.


Note on the data - when i express a % of votes, it represents the votes for the GOP candidate vs. the Dem candidate. Third-party votes were not taken into account, an important fact to keep in mind when you see the Dole comments. And it doesn't reflect that some portion will not vote at all (that is accounted for in the conclusions section, though).


Enterprisers - the least variance (only a 3% standard deviation) of any group, solidly Republican, always at least 90% for the GOP candidate, ranging from a low of 92% for Dole in 1996, to a high of 99% for Bush in 2004.
2008 Forecast: not tough to predict, really. For the average GOP candidate, i peg it at 97%, ranging from 92% for Huckabee to 99% for Romney. A third-party Paul or Bloomberg could dip into that, but i don't expect that to happen.


Social Conservatives - also solid GOP, ranging from a low of 72% for Dole, to a high of 97% for Reagan 1984. On average, this group is 89% GOP.
2008 Forecast: The red/blue divide has solidified in recent years for socons, and so i expect them to go GOP at a 95% clip, with Huckabee leading the way in the high 90s, and Giuliani trailing at 80%.


ProGovernment Conservatives - averages 78% for the GOP candidate, dipping down to 64% for Dole, and a high of 93% for Bush 2000. Bush 2004 got 84% of this group.
2008 Forecast: another Huckabee wheelhouse. I have him leading this group, too, at 88%. Romney trails the field at 80%.


Upbeats - now we start getting into the swing groups. Upbeats have averaged 67% for the GOP, but there has been a healthy variance. Bush in 1992 got only 36%, and Dole only 47%. Those guys, as you know, lost those races. Bush 2004 got 82%, however. This group, more than any other, tends to go with the most-sunny candidate.
2008 Forecast: Huckabee is the most sunny GOP candidate since Reagan. I can see him matching Bush's 2004 mark. Giuliani would lag here, with Thompson not much better.


Disaffecteds - the KEY swing group, imo. Like the Upbeats group, they have voted with the winner in each instance i have to study. The nadir for the GOP was, again, Dole with 23%. Reagan 1984 crushed it among this group, getting 81%. Over the 6 elections, this group has gone GOP 57%.
2008 Forecast: I think the historical trend will continue, and the GOP will need at least 50% of this group to win the 2008 election. Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson would poll the best with the Disaffecteds, among the GOP contenders. Giuliani and Romney would lag. Huckabee's unusual (for a Republican, sadly) populist messages resonate here.


Conservative Democrats - Peaked in 1984 at 25% for Reagan. Bush 2004 got 18%, about this group's GOP average.
2008 Forecast: I expect a GOP % in the 11-13% range, regardless of candidate.


Of the other voting groups, all strong Democratic groups, i don't see anything noteworthy, other than perhaps a chance for Giuliani to siphon off some of the Liberals, due to his pro-choice views and a perception that he would be stronger on foreign policy than the Democratic candidate. Not enough to make much difference, but i thought i should mention it, in fairness.


Conclusion
When you compare my forecasts with the historical voter turnout patterns by group, you can forecast a general election outcome (again, ignoring possible third-party spoilers). Here's what i get, in descending order of electability...

1. Huckabee - 50.4%
2. McCain - 50.1%
3. Thompson - 48.2%
4. Romney - 48.1%
5. Giuliani - 47.0%

Probably surprising for some readers who hearken to the prevailing "wisdom" that a social moderate is the best bet in the general election. And i know i'm open to charges of hagiographic bias for Huckabee. What hurts Giulini is the double-punch of losing enough social conservatives over the abortion issue, and enough Upbeats due to his tendency to turn dour. What helps Huckabee is that he will pull the best among the two key swing groups - Upbeats and Disaffecteds.

Pew Political Typologies

The Pew Research Center has analyzed the political views of Americans for more than a decade, most notably in their Political Typology reports. The typologies categorize Americans into one of 7-8 groups, based on their ideology, party identification, and values & beliefs.

For example, the Enterprisers group, representing about 10% of the country, is an extremely partisan Republican grouping, driven by a core belief in free enterprise and conservative social values. This group tends to be very patriotic, pro-business, anti-regulation, and assertive with foreign policy. Demographically, Enterprisers are predominately male, white, married, higher educated, and financially well-off. They are not much more religious than the country as a whole. This is the group that follows political news more closely than any other of the Typology groups. In the 2004 election, they voted for Bush 92-1 over John Kerry. (Incidentally, this is the group I end up in, when I take the typology test.)

The other groups, with their portion of the US registered voter population in (paren):

• Social Conservatives (13%)
  
• Pro Government Conservatives (10%)
  
• Upbeats (13%)
  
• Disaffecteds (10%)
  
• Liberals (19%)
  
• Conservative Democrats (15%)
  
• Disadvantaged Democrats (10%)
  
• Bystanders (0% of voters, but 10% of the adult population)
  

I have analyzed the 2004/2005 report in-depth, looking at the viewpoints of each group on key current issues and their voting patterns. I have also reviewed the prior reports, from 1999, 1994, and 1987, paying particular attention to the presidential voting patterns, from Reagan forward. In a future post, I'll outline what I've found there, and how it specifically relates to the 2008 election and Mike Huckabee. I have predicted voting outcomes for each of the groups for each of the top GOP candidates. Based on the last 2 decades, the key swing group is the Disaffected. Other important swing groups are Pro-Government Conservatives, Upbeats, and Conservative Democrats. Let's take a closer look at these 4 groups.

Disaffecteds

This is a politically cynical group that is mostly independent, party-wise. They tend to be dissatisfied with both their personal situation and with the state of the country. This group faces significant personal financial pressures, and is highly concerned with the impact of immigration or anything that impacts the availability of good jobs. They voted for Bush 2-1 over Kerry in the 2004 election, but about 25% of them didn't bother to vote at all. A large majority (70%) have no college education. They skew male (57%), and rural/suburban. This is a group that contains a large number of what used to be called Reagan Democrats.

Pro-Government Conservatives

Formerly termed "Populist Republicans", this group is typified by its strong religious faith and moral conservatism. Unlike other GOP groups, however, they express skepticism about the free market and are favorable toward government programs providing an economic safety net. They went for Bush by a 5-1 margin in 2004, but a fifth of them didn't vote. Demographically, much like a female (62%) version of the Disaffecteds. Nearly half are parents of in-the-household children, and nearly half live in the South.

Upbeats

Optimistic and independent, Upbeats feel good about the country and their own situation. They are more moderate on moral issues. In 2004, they voted for Bush by more than a 4-1 margin. Skew young, white, married, wealthy, educated, and suburban. A large portion of Catholics and mainline Protestants.

Conservative Democrats

Pretty solidly Democratic in recent elections, but distinguished from other Democrats by their religious orientation and conservative views on moral issues. This group contains an over-sample of older women and blacks. They voted for John Kerry as solidly as did the Upbeats for Bush.

More later…

From Pastorate to Presidency

A very nice article from the Concord (NH) Monitor about Huckabee's time in the pastorate in Arkansas. Highlighting some quotes from the article. Unless noted otherwise, the quotes are from the article's author...

• He could deliver a heavy moral message in such a light, folksy way that you didn't even notice the proselytizing. He remembered everyone's name. And he had a way of winning support for his good ideas by making the deacons think the ideas were their own.
• Huckabee says he started each elementary school year with two pairs of blue jeans; by the summer, they'd be cut into shorts. (I included this one because it reminded me of my roots. It's be nice to have a leader with a humble upbringing.)
• He was very serious about his faith, but he was also a fun guy to be around. He was never a religious stick in the mud. -- from Mike's college freshman roommate
• We used to sit in the dorm room and talk about what we wanted to do, around our popcorn popper. [Mike] said, 'What I'd like to do is help Christian people get involved in making our nation better.' - ibid
• If you could have a perfect pastor, he comes as close as anybody. He rejuvenated the church. He blew the back doors, really, off the church. -- from the church historian of Mike's church in Texarkana
• He had the vision, but you've got to sell the vision. And he was able to do that. People caught on and said, 'This is a great idea! This is my idea!' If you use a stick, the horse is going to kick you with its hooves. (Huckabee) was very good with the carrot approach in selling (his ideas). -- from a Texarkana congregant
• Too many people seemed unconcerned about how many marriages were salvaged, how many kids got off drugs, or how many teen pregnancies were prevented. Rather, the chief concerns seemed to be whether the menus for Wednesday night dinners were appetizing, what color the softball jerseys would be, how loud some guest musicians might sing, whether the coffeepot was ready in the Sunday school building, and whether there were paper towels in the women's rest room. -- from Mike himself, and a good summation of my own frustrations with many Baptist churches

Chuck Norris Approved

Mike Huckabee revealed his first campaign ad this morning during his interview on Fox. And it's a doozy. Check it out...



Not what you'd expect from the typical campaign, huh? And that's what i like about it. From a marketing (not political) perspective, it is clearly designed to build awareness, the proper approach for Huckabee at this point. Even on the Fox Sunday show, the sort of TV program made for the highly involved, they introduced the segment with (paraphrasing) "just who is this guy?". This ad will draw interest, create conversation and buzz, and drive interested folks to the website. I doubt it runs all the often as a paid TV ad, but will get plenty of free PR, and will be a viral hit on the web.

And then Mike will follow (quickly) with serious issue-oriented ads, or ads that highlight his engaging personality.

Pocketbook Politics (of a sort)

I enjoyed this article from Mr. Smartypants, about what the candidates might have in their wallets, after he actually did ask Mike Huckabee just that. Below is an excerpt of what he found. Read the article to see the humorous imaginings of what he'd find from Clinton, Edwards, et al.

He carried a handgun permit, frequent-flier club cards, five credit cards, two gift cards, a Marriott card, an AARP card, his hunting and fishing permit, expired duck stamps from last year, a slip listing the contact numbers of his band, Capitol Offense, and about $175 in cash, mostly in small bills.

He needs the frequent-flier cards because he travels on normal planes - US Airways for this trip. He needs the credit cards and cash because he pays for stuff. Some candidates have their staff handle the taxis and tips, but his national field director is his daughter, Sarah, so he's probably used to grabbing the tab.

The wallet tells me Huckabee is a fairly normal guy.

Video of the Day: Politically Uncorrect

Huckabee - politically uncorrect

p.s. Mike moves into a 2nd place tie nationally in the daily tracking poll by Rasmussen. It's time for my friends and family to get on board.

Huckabee's Embryonic Campaign Aborted by the NRLC

I was once a member of the National Right to Life Committee. Not in leadership, by any means, but just a rank & file, dues-paying pro-lifer. I received and thoroughly read the periodic newspaper. In my youth, i even contemplated joining the then-current fashion and getting myself arrested by picketing an abortion clinic while visiting Atlanta for a work conference. I have read and proudly display on my bookshelf such titles as Arresting Abortion by John Whitehead and Chuck Swindoll's Sanctity of Life.

I'm not a member any longer. It would be dramatic to announce that today's endorsement of Fred Thompson by the NRLC was the trigger. Dramatic, but false. I quit the NRLC long ago. Not because i changed my views, but because i couldn't see how my dues were making any difference. I say that not to disparage the organization, which i continued to appreciate, even if i never heard much about them for the past decade or so.

So why should i get worked up over their presidential endorsement of Thompson? It's because it strikes me as an endorsement borne not of principle, but of crass political maneuvering. Call me naive, but i still expect passion-issue groups like NRLC to remain true to principle. And when you have a clear pro-life choice like Mike Huckabee (or even Dr. Ron Paul, for goodness sake), how can you ignore that?

In their statements today, the NRLC reps repeatedly pointed to polls, claiming that Thompson was the most viable candidate behind the pro-abortion Giuliani. They even have a candidate comparison at their site that references, and even sorts by, poll numbers. That's bad enough, but the poll numbers they site there are from early October!

In other words, the NRLC has taken a snapshot of the campaign life at an early embryonic stage, and decided that Huckabee's prospects of a full & happy life as a presidential candidate were not worth it. This was a baby not worth keeping. Look at how tiny it is! How can we consider that truly alive?

So, here we sit, some 5 weeks later, with an updated ultrasound of the campaign. But the NRLC apparently didn't want to see the face of the growing life, much like abortion doctors don't want to show real ultrasounds to their patients.

p.s. I apologize if my theme and post title offend some. I ask that you grant the dramatic license, for the long-run sake of our unborn brothers & sisters. I draw no real parallels between a presidential campaign and the real-life tragedy of abortion. Furthermore, i do not believe that Huckabee's campaign is in any way terminated.

Up to 21% in Iowa!

New Iowa poll just released by CBS News has Mike Huckabee at 21%, trailing Romney at 27%. This 6 point gap is the smallest lead for Romney in some time there. His personally contributed fortune in media buys isn't doing the trick. Well, it got him to this point, but it's looking more and more like it won't be enough to fool the savvy Iowans.

In the same poll, Dead-Fred is sinking like a geode (the state rock of Iowa, and appropriate in that there's no way to tell what's inside a geode until you crack it open), falling into single digits.

There's more to the poll that is quite interesting. I hope to find time later to dive into it.

The Price of Freedom

Here is a great video with a segment of a speech that Mike Huckabee made to the Midwest Republican Leadership Conference earlier this year. It tells the tale of Arkansas high school teacher Martha Cothren imparting a lesson on the price of freedom. If it seems free to some of us, that's because some paid very high prices.

Consider this on this Veterans' Day. And check out Huckabee's proposed Veterans' Bill of Rights for areas where we are falling short.

Three Keys for a President

Today, i want to think more broadly about the Presidency. What are the elements to look for when considering who to select? I employ a three-pronged test, a 3-legged stool, if you will. The best candidates will be those who are strong on all 3 legs.

The Three Keys are:

Competency
POTUS is a huge job, and it takes an intelligent, capable, broad-thinking leader to do it well. In the business world (as in most things that are most purely meritocracy based - sports being a prime example), the best predictor of future success is past success. So, look for someone who has demonstrated success in past leadership opportunities.

Integrity
Here, we are looking for someone who is centered, who has a coherent worldview, a vision for America's future based on creative ideas. Or perhaps this leg is better defined by its absence, since that is more likely observed in politics. By this, i mean the typical political pandering we see. The thumb-in-the-wind guy. The poll react-er. The type that says one thing to one set of voters, and another to a different set. At its worst, we term this "saying anything to get elected". This leg is the most important of the three for me, as i am vigilantly leery of those seeking power for power's sake.

Ideology
Most political discussion centers on this leg, although it may be the least important of the three when it comes to the Presidency. Obviously, we all prefer to have a leader who agrees with us as much as possible. For me, i absolutely want a President who understands that pre-born children deserve protection. I want a President who agrees with the foundational principles of our country. Who will provide a check on ever-expanding state power (and by "state" here i mean a nation). And a few score other issues. I won't say much on this one, as it is easily understood.

So we throw these three elements - competence, integrity, and platform - into the soup, and what do we get? The answer is not always obvious, or perhaps rarely obvious. Sometimes we don't get what we thought we were getting, as in the case of GWB and fiscal restraint.

Surveying the 2008 Candidates

Since this is a Huckebee blog, it should not be surprising that i believe Mike Huckabee comes out with the highest marks in my 3-variable calculation. We are very close in ideology. Not perfectly aligned, but closer than the rest (with the possible exception of John McCain, if you go by those candidate-chooser websites, but those tools didn't ask about my views on campaign-finance reform and its violation of the 1st amendment). I believe Mike is a man of high integrity. I see him as different from the typical politician, and believe he truly desires to lift up America and its citizens.

Finally, on competence, i am attracted by Mike's experience as a governor for over a decade, and his record in Arkansas transforming the infrastructure (the state's highways were truly abysmal, so much so that i would go out of my way to avoid driving through the middle of Arkansas, the natural route when going from North Carolina to Oklahoma - now, the highways are much, much better) and transforming the fiscal mindset to one of family-oriented tax reform (which was the first broad-based income tax cut in the history of that state) and the fiscal coffers to one of surplus (another link).

I won't discuss the other candidates in any detail. I will only say that all of them, again with the possible exception of John McCain, come up short on at least one of the three stool-legs. The Democrats all fail for me, at a minimum, on ideology, as does Rudy Giuliani. Fred Thompson fails on competence, as does Ron Paul. Mitt Romney fails on integrity. (Before anyone jumps on this paragraph, i stipulate that it is decidedly short on argument, and mostly just presents my conclusions.)

Readers, voters, should draw their own conclusions about each candidate. I merely ask you to consider all three elements before deciding.