Pew Political Typologies

The Pew Research Center has analyzed the political views of Americans for more than a decade, most notably in their Political Typology reports. The typologies categorize Americans into one of 7-8 groups, based on their ideology, party identification, and values & beliefs.

For example, the Enterprisers group, representing about 10% of the country, is an extremely partisan Republican grouping, driven by a core belief in free enterprise and conservative social values. This group tends to be very patriotic, pro-business, anti-regulation, and assertive with foreign policy. Demographically, Enterprisers are predominately male, white, married, higher educated, and financially well-off. They are not much more religious than the country as a whole. This is the group that follows political news more closely than any other of the Typology groups. In the 2004 election, they voted for Bush 92-1 over John Kerry. (Incidentally, this is the group I end up in, when I take the typology test.)

The other groups, with their portion of the US registered voter population in (paren):

• Social Conservatives (13%)
  
• Pro Government Conservatives (10%)
  
• Upbeats (13%)
  
• Disaffecteds (10%)
  
• Liberals (19%)
  
• Conservative Democrats (15%)
  
• Disadvantaged Democrats (10%)
  
• Bystanders (0% of voters, but 10% of the adult population)
  

I have analyzed the 2004/2005 report in-depth, looking at the viewpoints of each group on key current issues and their voting patterns. I have also reviewed the prior reports, from 1999, 1994, and 1987, paying particular attention to the presidential voting patterns, from Reagan forward. In a future post, I'll outline what I've found there, and how it specifically relates to the 2008 election and Mike Huckabee. I have predicted voting outcomes for each of the groups for each of the top GOP candidates. Based on the last 2 decades, the key swing group is the Disaffected. Other important swing groups are Pro-Government Conservatives, Upbeats, and Conservative Democrats. Let's take a closer look at these 4 groups.

Disaffecteds

This is a politically cynical group that is mostly independent, party-wise. They tend to be dissatisfied with both their personal situation and with the state of the country. This group faces significant personal financial pressures, and is highly concerned with the impact of immigration or anything that impacts the availability of good jobs. They voted for Bush 2-1 over Kerry in the 2004 election, but about 25% of them didn't bother to vote at all. A large majority (70%) have no college education. They skew male (57%), and rural/suburban. This is a group that contains a large number of what used to be called Reagan Democrats.

Pro-Government Conservatives

Formerly termed "Populist Republicans", this group is typified by its strong religious faith and moral conservatism. Unlike other GOP groups, however, they express skepticism about the free market and are favorable toward government programs providing an economic safety net. They went for Bush by a 5-1 margin in 2004, but a fifth of them didn't vote. Demographically, much like a female (62%) version of the Disaffecteds. Nearly half are parents of in-the-household children, and nearly half live in the South.

Upbeats

Optimistic and independent, Upbeats feel good about the country and their own situation. They are more moderate on moral issues. In 2004, they voted for Bush by more than a 4-1 margin. Skew young, white, married, wealthy, educated, and suburban. A large portion of Catholics and mainline Protestants.

Conservative Democrats

Pretty solidly Democratic in recent elections, but distinguished from other Democrats by their religious orientation and conservative views on moral issues. This group contains an over-sample of older women and blacks. They voted for John Kerry as solidly as did the Upbeats for Bush.

More later…

From Pastorate to Presidency

A very nice article from the Concord (NH) Monitor about Huckabee's time in the pastorate in Arkansas. Highlighting some quotes from the article. Unless noted otherwise, the quotes are from the article's author...

• He could deliver a heavy moral message in such a light, folksy way that you didn't even notice the proselytizing. He remembered everyone's name. And he had a way of winning support for his good ideas by making the deacons think the ideas were their own.
• Huckabee says he started each elementary school year with two pairs of blue jeans; by the summer, they'd be cut into shorts. (I included this one because it reminded me of my roots. It's be nice to have a leader with a humble upbringing.)
• He was very serious about his faith, but he was also a fun guy to be around. He was never a religious stick in the mud. -- from Mike's college freshman roommate
• We used to sit in the dorm room and talk about what we wanted to do, around our popcorn popper. [Mike] said, 'What I'd like to do is help Christian people get involved in making our nation better.' - ibid
• If you could have a perfect pastor, he comes as close as anybody. He rejuvenated the church. He blew the back doors, really, off the church. -- from the church historian of Mike's church in Texarkana
• He had the vision, but you've got to sell the vision. And he was able to do that. People caught on and said, 'This is a great idea! This is my idea!' If you use a stick, the horse is going to kick you with its hooves. (Huckabee) was very good with the carrot approach in selling (his ideas). -- from a Texarkana congregant
• Too many people seemed unconcerned about how many marriages were salvaged, how many kids got off drugs, or how many teen pregnancies were prevented. Rather, the chief concerns seemed to be whether the menus for Wednesday night dinners were appetizing, what color the softball jerseys would be, how loud some guest musicians might sing, whether the coffeepot was ready in the Sunday school building, and whether there were paper towels in the women's rest room. -- from Mike himself, and a good summation of my own frustrations with many Baptist churches

Chuck Norris Approved

Mike Huckabee revealed his first campaign ad this morning during his interview on Fox. And it's a doozy. Check it out...



Not what you'd expect from the typical campaign, huh? And that's what i like about it. From a marketing (not political) perspective, it is clearly designed to build awareness, the proper approach for Huckabee at this point. Even on the Fox Sunday show, the sort of TV program made for the highly involved, they introduced the segment with (paraphrasing) "just who is this guy?". This ad will draw interest, create conversation and buzz, and drive interested folks to the website. I doubt it runs all the often as a paid TV ad, but will get plenty of free PR, and will be a viral hit on the web.

And then Mike will follow (quickly) with serious issue-oriented ads, or ads that highlight his engaging personality.

Pocketbook Politics (of a sort)

I enjoyed this article from Mr. Smartypants, about what the candidates might have in their wallets, after he actually did ask Mike Huckabee just that. Below is an excerpt of what he found. Read the article to see the humorous imaginings of what he'd find from Clinton, Edwards, et al.

He carried a handgun permit, frequent-flier club cards, five credit cards, two gift cards, a Marriott card, an AARP card, his hunting and fishing permit, expired duck stamps from last year, a slip listing the contact numbers of his band, Capitol Offense, and about $175 in cash, mostly in small bills.

He needs the frequent-flier cards because he travels on normal planes - US Airways for this trip. He needs the credit cards and cash because he pays for stuff. Some candidates have their staff handle the taxis and tips, but his national field director is his daughter, Sarah, so he's probably used to grabbing the tab.

The wallet tells me Huckabee is a fairly normal guy.

Video of the Day: Politically Uncorrect

Huckabee - politically uncorrect

p.s. Mike moves into a 2nd place tie nationally in the daily tracking poll by Rasmussen. It's time for my friends and family to get on board.

Huckabee's Embryonic Campaign Aborted by the NRLC

I was once a member of the National Right to Life Committee. Not in leadership, by any means, but just a rank & file, dues-paying pro-lifer. I received and thoroughly read the periodic newspaper. In my youth, i even contemplated joining the then-current fashion and getting myself arrested by picketing an abortion clinic while visiting Atlanta for a work conference. I have read and proudly display on my bookshelf such titles as Arresting Abortion by John Whitehead and Chuck Swindoll's Sanctity of Life.

I'm not a member any longer. It would be dramatic to announce that today's endorsement of Fred Thompson by the NRLC was the trigger. Dramatic, but false. I quit the NRLC long ago. Not because i changed my views, but because i couldn't see how my dues were making any difference. I say that not to disparage the organization, which i continued to appreciate, even if i never heard much about them for the past decade or so.

So why should i get worked up over their presidential endorsement of Thompson? It's because it strikes me as an endorsement borne not of principle, but of crass political maneuvering. Call me naive, but i still expect passion-issue groups like NRLC to remain true to principle. And when you have a clear pro-life choice like Mike Huckabee (or even Dr. Ron Paul, for goodness sake), how can you ignore that?

In their statements today, the NRLC reps repeatedly pointed to polls, claiming that Thompson was the most viable candidate behind the pro-abortion Giuliani. They even have a candidate comparison at their site that references, and even sorts by, poll numbers. That's bad enough, but the poll numbers they site there are from early October!

In other words, the NRLC has taken a snapshot of the campaign life at an early embryonic stage, and decided that Huckabee's prospects of a full & happy life as a presidential candidate were not worth it. This was a baby not worth keeping. Look at how tiny it is! How can we consider that truly alive?

So, here we sit, some 5 weeks later, with an updated ultrasound of the campaign. But the NRLC apparently didn't want to see the face of the growing life, much like abortion doctors don't want to show real ultrasounds to their patients.

p.s. I apologize if my theme and post title offend some. I ask that you grant the dramatic license, for the long-run sake of our unborn brothers & sisters. I draw no real parallels between a presidential campaign and the real-life tragedy of abortion. Furthermore, i do not believe that Huckabee's campaign is in any way terminated.

Up to 21% in Iowa!

New Iowa poll just released by CBS News has Mike Huckabee at 21%, trailing Romney at 27%. This 6 point gap is the smallest lead for Romney in some time there. His personally contributed fortune in media buys isn't doing the trick. Well, it got him to this point, but it's looking more and more like it won't be enough to fool the savvy Iowans.

In the same poll, Dead-Fred is sinking like a geode (the state rock of Iowa, and appropriate in that there's no way to tell what's inside a geode until you crack it open), falling into single digits.

There's more to the poll that is quite interesting. I hope to find time later to dive into it.

The Price of Freedom

Here is a great video with a segment of a speech that Mike Huckabee made to the Midwest Republican Leadership Conference earlier this year. It tells the tale of Arkansas high school teacher Martha Cothren imparting a lesson on the price of freedom. If it seems free to some of us, that's because some paid very high prices.

Consider this on this Veterans' Day. And check out Huckabee's proposed Veterans' Bill of Rights for areas where we are falling short.

Three Keys for a President

Today, i want to think more broadly about the Presidency. What are the elements to look for when considering who to select? I employ a three-pronged test, a 3-legged stool, if you will. The best candidates will be those who are strong on all 3 legs.

The Three Keys are:

Competency
POTUS is a huge job, and it takes an intelligent, capable, broad-thinking leader to do it well. In the business world (as in most things that are most purely meritocracy based - sports being a prime example), the best predictor of future success is past success. So, look for someone who has demonstrated success in past leadership opportunities.

Integrity
Here, we are looking for someone who is centered, who has a coherent worldview, a vision for America's future based on creative ideas. Or perhaps this leg is better defined by its absence, since that is more likely observed in politics. By this, i mean the typical political pandering we see. The thumb-in-the-wind guy. The poll react-er. The type that says one thing to one set of voters, and another to a different set. At its worst, we term this "saying anything to get elected". This leg is the most important of the three for me, as i am vigilantly leery of those seeking power for power's sake.

Ideology
Most political discussion centers on this leg, although it may be the least important of the three when it comes to the Presidency. Obviously, we all prefer to have a leader who agrees with us as much as possible. For me, i absolutely want a President who understands that pre-born children deserve protection. I want a President who agrees with the foundational principles of our country. Who will provide a check on ever-expanding state power (and by "state" here i mean a nation). And a few score other issues. I won't say much on this one, as it is easily understood.

So we throw these three elements - competence, integrity, and platform - into the soup, and what do we get? The answer is not always obvious, or perhaps rarely obvious. Sometimes we don't get what we thought we were getting, as in the case of GWB and fiscal restraint.

Surveying the 2008 Candidates

Since this is a Huckebee blog, it should not be surprising that i believe Mike Huckabee comes out with the highest marks in my 3-variable calculation. We are very close in ideology. Not perfectly aligned, but closer than the rest (with the possible exception of John McCain, if you go by those candidate-chooser websites, but those tools didn't ask about my views on campaign-finance reform and its violation of the 1st amendment). I believe Mike is a man of high integrity. I see him as different from the typical politician, and believe he truly desires to lift up America and its citizens.

Finally, on competence, i am attracted by Mike's experience as a governor for over a decade, and his record in Arkansas transforming the infrastructure (the state's highways were truly abysmal, so much so that i would go out of my way to avoid driving through the middle of Arkansas, the natural route when going from North Carolina to Oklahoma - now, the highways are much, much better) and transforming the fiscal mindset to one of family-oriented tax reform (which was the first broad-based income tax cut in the history of that state) and the fiscal coffers to one of surplus (another link).

I won't discuss the other candidates in any detail. I will only say that all of them, again with the possible exception of John McCain, come up short on at least one of the three stool-legs. The Democrats all fail for me, at a minimum, on ideology, as does Rudy Giuliani. Fred Thompson fails on competence, as does Ron Paul. Mitt Romney fails on integrity. (Before anyone jumps on this paragraph, i stipulate that it is decidedly short on argument, and mostly just presents my conclusions.)

Readers, voters, should draw their own conclusions about each candidate. I merely ask you to consider all three elements before deciding.

Abortion, The Princess Bride, and the Hijacking of Language

Mike Huckabee, in his speech at the Family Research Council's Washington Briefing (videos linked in prior posts), spoke about his pro-life views and the "holocaust" of abortion on demand. Those who have been fighting the pro-life battle to end (or at least severely limit) abortion didn't blink an eye at the use of that term, but left-wing bloggers immediately jumped in with frothing indignation, and the ADL called for an apology and a promise to stop using that particular phrasing. I even saw one blogger claim that the word "holocaust" should always be capitalized and can only be used as a proper noun to refer to the Nazi extermination efforts against Jews during WWII. Not as a matter of political correctness, but as a matter of grammatical correctness.

I can't see why one group should get to claim exclusivity of a word, even one so charged as holocaust. It is reasonable to hold all the proper outrage and sympathy for what happened in the capital H holocaust, and still be able to use that small-H version of the word to refer to other atrocities. The fact that there are other holocausts does not any way diminish or detract from the big Holocaust.

Reagan & The Pope

Besides, it's not as if Huckabee stands alone, or that this is some novel linguistic or propagandist trickery. Ronald Reagan, in 1983 during his Presidency, wrote a famous essay about abortion. It was entitled Abortion and the Conscience of the Nation. Well worth the read, still a quarter-century later. In this essay, Reagan refers the reader to a quote from Professor William Brennan:

The cultural environment for a human holocaust is present whenever any society can be misled into defining individuals as less than human and therefore devoid of value and respect.

Reagan also quotes approvingly from a book by John Powell entitled Abortion: The Silent Holocaust. (Not incidentally, Reagan also draws parallels between abortion and slavery, which enraged other interest groups.) While it's true that the President does not, in this essay or anywhere else I've been able to find, directly call abortion a holocaust, I do believe that these 2 references are intentional on his part. If he had any squeamishness about the term, he could have easily found a quote other than Brennan's.

Another noted leader of the era, Pope John Paul II, also saw some commonalities, remarked upon in his book Memory and Identity. This, too, set off a firestorm of criticism, prompting then-Cardinal (now Pope himself) Ratzinger to issue a clarification. JP2 rightly called abortion a "legal extermination" of persons deemed less than human.

It is well worth mentioning, even though it is obvious, that there are key differences between the abortion holocaust and the Jewish Holocaust by the Nazi regime. It is especially abhorrent to seek the absolute extermination of an entire group of people. As a Christian, it is doubly painful that the targeted group were fellow God-disciples.

There's enough pain to go around, though. Calling abortion a holocaust is not an attempt to draw perfect parallels to the Holocaust, or to ride on its outrage-coattails. It is a term to refer to grand-scale killing atrocity, particularly one that is based on dehumanization of the victims. It should not be surprising that pro-lifers feel this way about abortion.

The word holocaust
It's a strange word to use in either case, in my opinion, given its etymology. The word is Greek, and literally means "burned whole". As the link points out, the term was originally a Bible word denoting burnt offerings, but its usage expanded in the mid-1800s to refer to a massacre of a large number of persons. The wiki entry goes into greater detail. Interestingly, what we now call The Holocaust was originally called Shoah, or catastrophe. Theologically, shoah makes much more sense than holocaust, which suggests a sacrifice to God. In that sense, it doesn't make sense to use it for abortion, either.

It's a well-traveled word. You can even find cultural references to the word, such as in the move The Princess Bride, when Westley laments, "Oh, what I wouldn't give for a holocaust cloak." Or a heavy-metal band from Scotland. Or comic-book villain.

Back to Abortion

So what are we to make of the special indignation that greats the use of this word to describe abortion? It strikes me that while some like the ADL are purists in their opposition, others are merely reflecting their politics, objecting as a wedge-point because they do not agree with the pro-life position. One otherwise sober blogger suggests that it aligns the speaker with the forces of intolerance (upon creating the hyperlink here, I note that the author reworded his post to remove the reference to intolerance – I commend him).

I do agree that the term is used to get the audience's attention, and get you to thinking, but it is done not crassly or unsympathetically or certainly not intolerantly. It is an honest accounting of how a pro-lifer feels about the tragedy of abortion.

Must-Sees

There are some things you just have to see or read. Things that don't necessarily need my commentary.

First, Huckabee's outstanding speech (which he wrote himself) at the FRC's Washington Briefing. This was a speech for a specific audience. Part 3 is the best part, when Mike goes into full sermon mode talking about David over Goliath, et al. Part 1. Part 2. I'll try to embed Part 3 here...



Second, this article by Jonathon Alter at Newsweek. If you still have doubts about Mike's electability in the general election, see Alter's take, as he concludes that Huckabee is the GOP's best bet.

Huckabee comes across more hopeful than Giuliani, more believable than Romney, more intelligent than Thompson and fresher than McCain. He would hold the base and capture moderates drawn to his down-home style. His greatest asset is that he alone among the Republicans "speaks American." He connects to his audience with stories and metaphors and a geniality that can't be faked.

Entering a New Phase

On the heels of Huckabee's big weekend (let's call it a long 3-day weekend), when he rocked the house at the "value voters'" Washington Briefing and knocked out the other GOP candidates with a whopping 51% of the onsite vote, and when Mike excelled again in a GOP debate, the Huckabee campaign is entering new territory. It's the terrain of a top tier candidate, part of the Big 5 as the GOP race only gets more muddled over time.

We should expect a ramp-up in attacks, mostly from the blogosphere sniping at Mike's perceived weaknesses. More than a decade as governor provides plenty of fodder for twisting the record. I'll grant that there are a few valid criticisms; it's just that it never stops there. And we may even see some attack ads in Iowa from the Romney campaign or affiliated groups.

It will be interesting to see how the Huckabee crew handles the increased scrutiny. They have been unfailingly nice thus far (perhaps except for the snarky comments about how depressing it must be to have raised all that dough with little to show for it). And on the Huckabee blogs and discussion forums, the Huckabeelievers are almost uniformly polite and cheery folk. Are we prepared for the gloves-off freak show?

P.S. Did we finally get that tipping point in the Chuck Norris endorsement? I was amazed at the press coverage that got. I even had a not-politically-involved co-worker pop into my office Monday afternoon to see if i had heard the news. I have not revealed my Huckabee fandom at work, so that's not why he stopped by. He's just the sort of guy who gets restless or bored and wants to share whatever the zeitgeist of the moment is, whether it be some sports headline or a natural disaster or what have you. Norris on Huckabee fit the bill.

By the way, if you scoff at the notion of Walker Texas Ranger weighing in on politics, well, that was my initial reaction, too. But read the link above. Chuck lays out a detailed, cogent case for our guy Huckabee.

Interview with Grist

Been meaning to link this for a while. Grist specializes in environmental news and issues. I got a kick out of this blurb on their "About Us" page.

Grist: it's gloom and doom with a sense of humor. So laugh now -- or the planet gets it.

They have posted interviews with many of the 2008 candidates, including Mike Huckabee. Mike shares his passion for the pursuit of energy independence, and why it's also a national security issue. He talks about his interest in the environment and conservation from a God-following, let's-take-care-of-His-creation angle.

He reveals this his "environmental hero" is Theodore Roosevelt (woohoo!). And he tells a humorous story about confronting litterers on a canoe trip down an Arkansas river. A very nice interview that is well worth your time to check out.

A Big Day

A red-letter day for the Huckabee campaign, primarily from the fantastic poll results from Iowa, released by noted pollsters Rasmussen. Huckabee has surged to 18%, a nip behind the already-fading Thompson (19%), and within guitar-shredding distance of Romney (25%).

To have reached this level of support with almost no money, and no L&O reruns, is a great testament to the campaign and the candidate himself.

The 2nd piece of news today was a column from Dick Morris, who chronicles the field with praise for Huckabee. Morris said he was "amazed" (in a good way) with Huckabee's approach to issues, calling him a "refreshing change" in contrast to Bill Clinton. Here are some of the other adjectives Morris used to describe Mike:

• articulate
• principled
• knowledgeable
• witty
• sincere
• dedicated
• courageous

Finally, i'd like to call attention to a nice post from Justin in Oklahoma. He outlines 4 areas where he expects Huckabee to get more criticism as he ascends in the polls. You can already see the attacks starting.

Can a Pastor Be President?

Mike Huckabee wears the badge of his last name proudly, despite the inane criticism of it recently. He's also faced criticism from some about the prospect of a Baptist pastor becoming the President. But in this article from the Religion News Service, and published in today's Winston-Salem Journal, Mike makes a cogent case that his minister experience is quite helpful, if not directly pertinent, to the job of POTUS. It, too, is a badge to trumpet, not hide.

Here's the money quote...
“I think it’s the greatest preparation that a person can have for public service. There’s not any social pathology that I couldn’t put a name and a face to. Somebody says they want to talk about the issue of the elderly, I’ve dealt with those folks. I’ve dealt with a 14-year-old girl who’s pregnant and hasn’t told her parents yet. I’ve talked to the young couple who’s head over heels in debt. ... I think it gives you a real perspective about people and what they’re going through that’s important.”

Huckabeelievers will certainly want to read the entire article. If you find the link dead (not sure how long the newspaper will keep it live), add a comment, and i'll come back and post some more of it.

P.S. The United States has already had one pastor become President. James Garfield. Let's pray our guy has a happier ending.