Does Governor Huckabee really have to get 82% of the remaining Delegates (as Karl Rove claimed on FoxNews' Hannity & Colmes) to stop Senator McCain from being the Republican Nominee?
The answer: No, he doesn't have to. He only has to get about 60%, and yes, that is very possible.
I see so many different delegate counts that I'm not sure who knows, but I'll use the Real Clear Politics numbers.
Right now:
McCain 724
Total Delegates awarded so far: 1247 (Actually, I know this number is wrong because RCP is showing delegates for states that had a caucus or primary but that award delegates at some later stage. I think all of them are in Romney's column, though)
Delegates remaining to be awarded: 1133
Delegates McCain needs to be the nominee: 467 (1191-724)
Percentage McCain must receive to be the nominee: 41.22%
Percentage Huckabee must receive to take this to the Convention: 58.78%
If Huckabee gets about 82% of remaining Delegates, he wins outright going into the Convention. I don't expect that to happen, but blocking McCain is in the realm of possibility.
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2 comments:
Can you please add the most relevant fact, in my opinion, which is what % of remaining delegates does Huck need in order to have more delegates than McCain (rather than clinch it, or keep McCain from clinching it?).
More importantly, many of the remaining primaries are some version of winner take all, eithe statewide, or by election district.
I would guess he could get 60% of the remaining delgates with 52% of the votes!
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