The truth about Taxes

Share this with your friends who are buying into the hype about Governor Huckabee's tax record in Arkansas.

Contributions

I just made my second contribution to the Huckabee campaign. I encourage all of our readers to make one, too. The $1,000,000 goal was already met today, but don't wait. When I click oso's Ranger link, it doesn't automatically include his donor code on the donation page, so if it doesn't for you, make sure you add Donor Code r69.

I'd like oso to update us with his current fundraising total. I'm curious if he's close to his $5000 goal.

Iowa vs. New Hampshire

Well, Huckabee got the targeted 3^rd place in New Hampshire, although he fell short of the 16% mark that i set as a goal. That's still good, particularly when you consider his polling position at the beginning of December, when Huckabee was, at best, in 5^th place.

Less encouraging is a review of the exit poll data. Huckabee did not make much, if any, headway expanding his voting bloc beyond church-going social conservatives. The only segments he led in were (a) folks who attend church more than once a week (a NH segment representing only 9% of GOP primary voters), and (b) those self-identified as born-agains or evangelicals. And in that 2^nd group, which were only 23% of the NH GOP voters, Huckabee only pulled 28%, tied with McCain, and only a shade ahead of Romney (27%).

This has to change. I don't profess to be so smart to advise the campaign how to do it. I'll leave that to the pros. And maybe it's just that New Hampshire was better suited to the top 2 finishers. After all, in Iowa, Huckabee had the top showing amongst almost all demographics, though without crosstabs, i cannot analyze if the Huckappeal extended beyond born-agains in any of the subsegments, or if that's just a case of the born-agains dominating the electoral landscape there.

One thing worth noting is that Iowa is more representative (than is New Hampshire) of what the rest of the GOP primaries will look like. In Iowa, 60% of the GOP voters were self-identified as either evangelicals or born-agains. In New Hampshire, that same figure was only 23%, as i noted above. But, as i pointed out a few days ago, Barna Research finds that fully 45% of Americans self-identify as born-again. And given that that group skews toward the GOP, it is fair to conclude that over half of GOP voters are born-again. Therefore, Iowa's 60% is more "normal" than is New Hampshire's 23%.

Issue: Spending

In one of the debates this weekend, Fred Thompson used the term "revenue neutral" to talk about any changes in the tax system. Why are Conservatives worried about being "revenue neutral"? It seems to me that Conservatives should be willing to support a tax plan that brings in fewer dollars because they foresee reducing the amount that our Federal Government is spending.

I just did a quick hit of all five of the major Republican Candidates' websites. The only candidate who actually proposes specific reductions of current levels of Federal Government spending is Rudy Giuliani. McCain and Thompson make broad claims about removing earmarks and increasing transparency. Thompson says we need to reduce wasteful spending but doesn't make any specific proposals. Mitt Romney's plan is merely to slow the rate of growth for spending.

Governor Huckabee talks about ensuring balanced budgets by giving the President a line-item veto. That's something of a start, and it is a point shared with Giuliani and Romney. This is an area where our favorite candidate could strengthen his position and perhaps allay some of the fears of the traditional fiscal conservatives.

Governor Huckabee's tax plan is unquestionably the most conservative, but he needs to back it up with a concrete plan to reduce spending. This is an area where Governor Huckabee could gain some traction, but he has to be willing and able to spell out the cuts that can and should be made.

Huck!

Two young Huckabee supporters, with keen musical talent, have created 3 cool videos, taking familiar songs and tuning them to the key of Huckabee. This is the 2nd one created and my favorite of the 3 - Huck!



And the most recent one, released after the Iowa victory, melds Green Day with Oasis. (Link to their original video - Breakfast at Huckabee's)

Maybe
He's gonna be the one to change things
And as for me
I'm voting Huckabee

Predict the NH Primary Results

Think you got these campaigns figured out? Are you the best at reading the political tea leaves? Prove it at Politico's Kingmaker, where you get to predict the vote percentages of each candidate in each primary or caucus. Earn up to 200 points per prediction (if you're really confident - and right, of course).

Huckabee fans can join one of two Huckabee related pools. There's one called "Team Huckabee '08" and i created one called "Huck's Army". I didn't have any luck trying to search through the pools using text strings, so you may have to scroll through the lists (or hopefully the links will work). The password for the Huck's Army one is hope.

To get in for New Hampshire, you'll need to get your picks in before midnight tonight (ET). Best of luck!

The FoxNews Debate

Governor Huckabee didn't seem to do himself much good in tonight's debate, but I think he didn't hurt himself too badly, either. The focus group on FoxNews seemed to think that he waffled on the first question. I wish he had been a bit more forceful and flipped Romney's contention that he had to raise fees to maintain services, but I didn't see Huckabee as waffling too much.

One woman said about Romney, "He speaks off the cuff and is very, very well-versed." I don't think she even understood that her statement was internally contradictory.

The best hope for New Hampshire is a third place finish, and currently the Governor is consistently polling in third. It will also help if McCain can hold off Romney.

Goal for NH

The New Hampshire primary offers a total of only 12 delegates, after the GOP punished the early states for going too early, and halving their delegate counts. Those dozen delegates are apportioned based on the direct vote totals in the primary, although there is a 10% threshold in place before you can get any delegates. If you fall below this 10%, even if you get 9.9% of the vote, you get nothing.

So if we go by the Real Clear Politics poll averages for NH, we find that only 3 candidates are polling in double-digits. John McCain leads the way with 32.7%, ahead of Mitt Romney at 28.1%, and Mike Huckabee at 11.4%. If the actual vote matches those averages, both McCain and Romney would get 5 delegates, and Huckabee would get 2.

For Huckabee to get 3 delegates, he would need about 16% of the vote. So let's make that our goal: 16% and 3 delegates. A solid 3rd place.

Alt scenarios... if bychance, Giuliani or Paul get up to 10% and steal a delegate, they would take it from Romney (again, presuming the vote matches the polls). If both get to 10%, that would take away a delegate both from Romney and Huckabee. To get that delegate back, Mike would need to jump only a smidge, from the 11.4% of the polls to 12%.

Do 1 or 2 delegates matter all that much? No, probably not. For my money, i would expend just enough effort in NH to get that 3rd place and at least 2 delegates, to keep the momentum alive, and focus more time on Michigan and Florida.

P.S. Did you realize that Romney picked up more delegates in Wyoming (8) than he did in Iowa (7)?

Vote For, Not Against

NOTE: Originally posted December 12, 2007, on my personal blog.

One of the main reasons I finally decided to support Mike Huckabee for President in 2008 is that I like the prospect of voting for somebody rather than against someone else. In 2004, I noted to anyone who would listen that John Kerry wouldn't beat Bush because it is too tough to rally people long-term in voting against somebody. The Democrats kept talking about how much they hated Bush, and they tried to turn out the vote with an anti-Bush message rather than a pro-Kerry one.

I feared that 2008 would be a mirror image. Only this time, it would be Republicans trying to GOTV with appeals to the scariness of Hillary Clinton (and make no mistake about it, she is plenty scary). This strategy is a loser. It's also why I never jumped on the electability bandwagon. In the Republican race so far, "electability" has most often been defined as "somebody who can beat Hillary." Yes, several people would be inspired to come out to vote against Hillary, but firming up that support is much easier if the Republican is someone the people want to vote for.

Mike Huckabee is the kind of candidate that many people will want to vote for, even if they don't agree with him on every issue. I've only voted "against" somebody once in my life. That was in 1996. I wasn't particularly thrilled with Bob Dole, but I knew he was preferable to Bill Clinton.

I'm excited to have a candidate I can vote for in 2008.

No Stranger to Dark Horses

NOTE: Originally posted December 11, 2007, on my personal blog.

My "late to the party" support of Mike Huckabee for President in 2008 isn't the first time I've latched onto a so-called Dark Horse Candidate. In 1996, I made my first ever political contribution to Alan Keyes. I even drove from Waco to Denton to hear him speak in person. Maybe it was that Quixotic support that cause me to hold back so long on Huckabee. I didn't want to pick a candidate with absolutely no shot at getting the nomination. Now, as I examine the polls, I think there's good reason to think that this race has become Huckabee's to lose.

First, the attacks aren't sticking. Reagan was called the Teflon President. Huckabee may very well be 2008's Teflon Candidate.

Second, Fred Thompson has to drop out sooner or later. I'd prefer it be before South Carolina, but even if he waits until after South Carolina, as long as he exits before February 5th, this can only help Huckabee. There's no way to know for sure, but once Thompson drops out, the most logical place for his supporters to go is to Huckabee. Except, if McCain is still in the race, Thompson might endorse McCain.

Third, except for Thompson, there's really no other viable choice for conservative Christians. I'm not knocking my friends who have chosen for various reasons to support Giuliani, but I just don't buy the "Rudy is the only one who can beat Hillary" argument. Duncan Hunter may be a fine man and would likely be a good President, but barring some sort of miracle, he's dead. Maybe he'll realize it after Iowa and New Hampshire.

Thanks

I'll start my participation here with a thanks to my brother. Thanks for inviting me to join him here, but more importantly, thanks for getting me to take a second look at Mike Huckabee. My contributions will likely be a bit more "shoot from the hip" than the analytical nature of the Devil Bear's. After all, he's the one with the MBA. Another difference in our posts will be that I still capitalize the first-person personal pronoun.

I will probably repost a couple of the entries from my personal blog then get going with new material. I plan to follow Governor Huckabee's example of being positive, and I will try to resist the urge to point out the deficiencies of his opponents.

Adding a 2nd Author

I'm pleased to announce that Huck the System will be adding a second author soon. My brother is now on board. We're a little older than the famed Harris brothers, and we're not twins (although we do share a birthday - the same birthday, incidentally, as Mike Huckabee), but we do share a desire for Mike Huckabee to be the next President of the United States.

My brother is the first person i talked to about Huckabee, not counting blog posts. Back in the summer, late June i think, we were at a nephew's wedding rehearsal dinner, and i broached the subject of the election. My younger brother is way more into politics than i am, and so i was interested in his thoughts. I say, "so, i'm surprised that you haven't made any comments on my blog posts about Mike Huckabee." He's ambivalent at best, expressing a concern about Mike being a "nanny-stater" because of the news at the time about his views on smoking. I tell him that he's just gonna have to decide which "deficiency" he can most live with.

Fast forward a couple of months. On his regular blog, i notice that my brother has come around, and is now supporting Huckabee. Bandwagoner, i call him (you know how brothers are). Then i decided to invite him to write here with me. He's a very smart guy (National Merit finalist and all that, two advanced degrees), a devoted family man, a strong Christian, and someone whom i expect to have some interesting insights on Mike Huckabee and this campaign.

My Own Two Hands

I love this Huckabee-supporter-created video featuring the song My Own Two Hands by Ben Harper and Jack Johnson. As the supporter asks on the youtube page...

What can we imagine if we all took the time to live in harmony with the world and people around us? What would the world be like if we had a president who lived by that philosophy?

Let's all make use of our own two hands, using all the gifts God gave us, to make this world a better place. To quote Henry Van Dyke: "Use what talent you possess - the woods would be very silent if no birds sang except those that sang best."

Post-Iowa Viewpoints

Some of the better or more interesting commentary i ran across about Huckabee's victory in Iowa.

Joshua Trevino has some very good advice for the Huckabee team.
K Street Mole talks about the Medved and Brooks articles
One Mom - media gets it wrong
The Dunn Report - this site is new to me; has a nice review of Mike's "Seven Hopes"
David Brooks with Two Earthquakes - too good not to link directly
The 7-10 digests the GOP results

And i'll close with the video of Mike's outstanding victory speech.

#1 and still underrated

What an exciting week! Congratulations to the Mike Huckabee campaign for their resounding victory in the Iowa caucus on Thursday night. Huckabee polled over 40,000 votes for 34.4%, well above 2nd-place Mitt Romney, who got fewer than 30,000 votes, or 25.2%. The table below shows how the candidates ranked in each county. Mike finished first or second in 98 of the 99 counties.

Rank	Huckabee	Romney	Thompson	McCain	Paul	Giuliani	Hunter	Tancredo
1	74	24	0	0	1	0	0	0
2	24	53	11	7	4	0	0	0
3	1	20	50	18	12	0	0	0
4	0	1	26	52	23	0	0	0
5	0	1	12	22	58	1	0	0
6	0	0	0	0	1	93	9	0
7	0	0	0	0	0	5	89	21
8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	78
avg	1.3	2.0	3.4	3.9	4.4	6.0	6.9	7.8

And looking at the entrance poll numbers, we find that Huckabee finished first among…

• Women (40%) and Men (29)
  
• All Age groups
  
  • Ages 17-29 (40)
    
  • Ages 30-44 (39)
    
  • Ages 45-64 (31)
    
  • Ages 65+ (30)
    
• Those who decided in the last month or before
  
• Those who decided on caucus day
  
• Those who strongly favor their candidate
  
• No matter the choice for the most important problem facing the country
  
  • Illegal immigration
    
  • War in Iraq
    
  • The economy
    
  • Terrorism
    
• Republicans (as opposed to a small group of self-identified independents, who went for Paul)
  
• Self-described as "very conservative"
  
• Self-described as "conservative"
  
• All views of the Bush administration except for "angry" (from "enthusiastic" to "dissatisfied")
  
• Family incomes below $100,000 (Romney nudged ahead on the rich folks)
  
• Suburbanites, small towners, and country folk
  
• Central Iowa, East Iowa, and West Iowa (all 3 regions)
  

Much has already been made about the evangelical vote. Fully 60% of GOP caucus goers described themselves as evangelical or born-again, and they went heavily for Huckabee, as expected. Some pundits are pooh-poohing the Iowa victory on the idea that other states don't have as many born-agains. But Barna Research consistently finds that 35-45% of American adults can be classified as born-again. Based on self-descriptions, like the Iowa polls, Barna finds that 45% call themselves born-again. Splitting that into the two major parties, Barna estimates that 51% of Republicans are born-again. Evangelicals trend GOP by a 59-16 margin. So it's not a stretch by any means that other states would trend similarly to Iowa in their GOP primaries. For example, South Carolina is decidedly more evangelical than is Iowa.

I do agree with the observation that Huckabee must deepen his appeal to non-evangelicals, and i'm confident that he can do just that. His platform of seeking energy independence, of significant pro-growth tax reform, of meaningful immigration reform, of novel education ideas like promoting arts & music education, of a focus on preventative health care, of understanding the nature of our fight against Islamic extremists, of defense of 2^nd Amendment rights – all these are coalition-building issues that go well beyond religious affiliation. Even more, Huckabee's outstanding ability to communicate, to connect with average Americans transcends religion.