Goal for NH

The New Hampshire primary offers a total of only 12 delegates, after the GOP punished the early states for going too early, and halving their delegate counts. Those dozen delegates are apportioned based on the direct vote totals in the primary, although there is a 10% threshold in place before you can get any delegates. If you fall below this 10%, even if you get 9.9% of the vote, you get nothing.

So if we go by the Real Clear Politics poll averages for NH, we find that only 3 candidates are polling in double-digits. John McCain leads the way with 32.7%, ahead of Mitt Romney at 28.1%, and Mike Huckabee at 11.4%. If the actual vote matches those averages, both McCain and Romney would get 5 delegates, and Huckabee would get 2.

For Huckabee to get 3 delegates, he would need about 16% of the vote. So let's make that our goal: 16% and 3 delegates. A solid 3rd place.

Alt scenarios... if bychance, Giuliani or Paul get up to 10% and steal a delegate, they would take it from Romney (again, presuming the vote matches the polls). If both get to 10%, that would take away a delegate both from Romney and Huckabee. To get that delegate back, Mike would need to jump only a smidge, from the 11.4% of the polls to 12%.

Do 1 or 2 delegates matter all that much? No, probably not. For my money, i would expend just enough effort in NH to get that 3rd place and at least 2 delegates, to keep the momentum alive, and focus more time on Michigan and Florida.

P.S. Did you realize that Romney picked up more delegates in Wyoming (8) than he did in Iowa (7)?