It's tough to lose a state you expected to win, and i'll take a closer look at the ramifications of that later, but this is a good time to pause and recheck my delegate count predictions. In a normal primary season, momentum would be king, but this year is different. No candidate has been able to capitalize on a primary win, in terms of momentum for the next round. And since everyone (but the self-funded Romney and the quixotic Paul) is pretty much broke, there's really little reason to drop out before Super Tuesday on Feb 5th. No, this year appears to be, as i've been saying for a while now, an old-fashioned delegate grab.
Results Through SC
In the first 6 primaries and/or caucuses, in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina, there have been 154 delegates available. That's only 6.6% of all available delegates. By the end of 2/5, there will be another 1158 delegates awarded. That's about 8 times more than have been already awarded. This is still an open race, and will depend on who can capture hearts in the next two weeks.
Back in December, i predicted delegate wins for each candidate in each state. Let's look at how that's gone so far. I had predicted two wins apiece for Huckabee (IA and SC), Romney (MI & NV), and McCain (WY & NH). Romney ended up winning 3, taking WY, too. McCain got his two, substituting a far more important SC for WY. Huckabee lags with only one win.
But what about delegates? Check out the table below which shows actual delegates with my predictions. One caveat first: different news outlets show different totals for Iowa. The AP gives 30 delegates to Huckabee and 7 to Romney, based on historical caucus-to-delegate outcomes in that state. Other outlets merely show a proportional awarding based on the statewide vote totals. I know the later method is incorrect, but for this table, i took an average of the two approaches.
Candidate | Predicted | Actual |
Mike Huckabee | 37 | 34 |
Mitt Romney | 56 | 59 |
John McCain | 32 | 38 |
Rudy Giuliani | 11 | 1 |
Fred Thompson | 3 | 7 |
Others (Paul, etc) | 15 | 7 |
Pretty much right on track, with the notable exception of Giuliani. I'm stunned with his poor performance. I know he hasn't campaigned that much in these states, but his background and name recognition alone should have been worth more than this. I had Giuliani with the 2nd most delegates by 2/5, with big wins in NY, NJ, and CA. All those, believe it or not, are now in jeopardy. We could probably safely swap Giuliani and McCain's delegate predictions, but the essential premise would remain: this is still too muddled, and no one will have a majority, or even a clear advantage, after Super Tuesday.
For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates. He needs to capture a few congressional districts in FL and CA and IL.
Updated Predictions
We could plausibly wake up on February 6th and find almost a 4-way battle on delegate counts. It seems each of the major 4 candidates has a solid non-majority constituency and/or a region of strength. Let the deal-making begin. I'm sticking by my prediction of a Huckabee/McCain ticket, in either direction.
Candidate | Original | Updated |
Mike Huckabee | 423 | 338 |
Mitt Romney | 194 | 221 |
John McCain | 205 | 331 |
Rudy Giuliani | 359 | 300 |
Fred Thompson | 59 | 54 |
Others (Paul, etc) | 73 | 68 |
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