Post Florida Report

Tonight Florida awarded 57 delegates to John McCain. Up next are the 22 states on super Tuesday.

This is what i said on the 20^th after SC. It's still true. Note that Missouri has MORE delegates than did Florida.

For Governor Huckabee, he needs to capture the Southern states of AL, AR, GA and OK. Those are must wins. No more second places in the south. I would probably add MO to that list. It would be a crucial winner-take-all win with 58 delegates.

Updated Predictions

The smart money tonight is on the end of the Giuliani campaign, and that he'll throw his support to McCain. Certainly, Giuliani's exit would give big winner-take-all states such as NY and NJ to McCain. So here's my latest update, reflecting my assumption of the end of Giuliani, and also taking out any future Thompson delegates (with the inconsequential exception of a few in TN). Still not enough for a majority, but enough to give McCain a clear command of the race, and perhaps enough to get deals worked out by Easter.

Again, this table shows my delegate estimates through 2/5.

Candidate	Original	1/20 est.	1/29 est.
Mike Huckabee	423	338	345
Mitt Romney	194	221	247
John McCain	205	331	636
Rudy Giuliani	359	300	11
Fred Thompson	59	54	8
Others (Paul, etc)	73	68	65

I'm probably still wearing my Huck-colored glasses, but i'll fight to the end.

Next Tuesday, all you have to watch is Missouri. If there's a miracle to be had, it will have to start there.